Drat, it kind of looks like it's all falling apart. Oh well. I think town will win at this point.
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| Thoughts on who will win? http://mafia.mit.edu/viewtopic.php?f=104&t=3309 |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:54 am ] |
| Post subject: | Thoughts on who will win? |
I think this is definitely anybody's game. On one hand, town isn't really suspicious of any mafia right now (I only had minor suspicions, which were wrong), and Lily Chen is a very good mafia leader (She said something about me conscripting dukhovni if I were mafia, and I nearly laughed and said, "No, I would conscript you!") Plus, various townies are suspicious of each other (isaacg and dukhovni being suspicion targets), and mafia knows Sam's role. On the other hand, every non-don who has made a kill has been lynched. Plus, Dgrazian and Asya, two very competent players, are now confirmed innocent. Dukhovni is still mayor and is starting to become more invested in game. Mafia gave themselves away a lot with the lynch last night, with 5/8 of the votes for Dukhovni being from mafia-aligned players, while none of the votes for Ama were. If someone eventually notices this, mafia would be in a very bad position. The vampires are all dead (with two of them being lynched), and so mafia won't be getting any more kabooms, but town also won't get more innocence checks. If town pays attention to my explanation for conscription being used, that would be great. Town has a ton of desperadoes alive, most of whom aren't priority kills, as well as good number of conspiracy theorists, so if mafia uses up their kabooms, they could be in trouble for endgame. Basically, I think a lot will depend on the next few days. Will Dgrazian and Asya lead town well and prevent mafia from leading them astray? Will mafia be able to silence the active townies in time? Will town go off their current suspicions and lynch valuable innocents (in particular, superhero and investigator Dukhovni and Isaacg, both of whom I highly trusted), or will they end up with new, better suspicions? Will Austin Fathman be able to make a heroic vigilante kill before a mafia can kill him (I told him that if there's the slightest chance that a person is there to kill him, he should kill them first and explain himself later), or will he finally be killed by mafia after playing 8 games without being the target of a bang/kaboom? What are people's thoughts? |
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| Author: | shikexue [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
ksedlar wrote: On the other hand, every non-don who has made a kill has been lynched. I think this is an optimistic way to say "one mafia has been lynched". I think town is in trouble - dinnino has a trap on him and isaacg is pretty high on the hit list, after which town has no more investigators. Mafia got free kabooms from vampires, and there's only one mafia that can be found through investigation at the moment. I think Asya's too hosed to hard carry the town. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
I mean, the lynches were vampire, vampire + revealed vigilante, mafia, rogue. That's pretty reasonable. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 6:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
Ooh, Asya proposed lynching Lily. And she's really pushing it. And now Isaac adds "If we're lynching active, experienced players, it's better to lynch ones who are better as mafia than town. And the only person I know who that's true of is Lily." He's only going off of the Spring 2 game, but that was SUPER true of the Summer 2 game. Hopefully Lucy can add that... There's also the proposed plan of vigilante-checking someone (killing them but finding out their alignment afterwards). It was then pointed out that a trusted vigilante is needed for that. Hopefully Austin can pull something off before mafia try to direct town to check him for Dgrazian's kill, which he was framed for. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 6:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
Also, hopefully Austin posts about how Isaac gave me the receiver, which should make him more trusted. Lily is currently saying it's not sketchy she's alive because Dgrazian, who is a big target, was still alive as of today. This ignores the fact that Lily's average lifespan is significantly shorter than Dgrazian's, since Dgrazian is more obnoxious to kill. |
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| Author: | Daniel Grazian [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
Not to mention that I was killed GOING INTO MY OFFICE BUILDING. |
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| Author: | Josh Frisch [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:13 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
I don't think they'll be lynching Lily tonight though... |
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| Author: | lilychen [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
Hi dead people! I'm hoping that my theatrics tonight will leave the mafia in a good position to win. I have great hope in fmajluf. I think we actually have a pretty good chance here. I'll write more after class... |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
Lolololol, Lily just murder-suicided. She scheme-kaboomed Isaac and then killed herself, having trapped herself as investigator. One might think that since Asya's top suspicions were Lily, Isaac, and Sam, that Sam would be suspected. However, literally at the same time (I was getting texts from Lily while witnessing it) vigilante Lucy banged Sam, who then didn't die due to his superhero paranoia, proving that he was either town or a mafia with a medkit (or conscripted, theoretically). Anyway, he's hopefully trusted enough to not get lynched tonight at least... |
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| Author: | lilychen [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
God dammit. I didn't see that coming. |
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| Author: | aok [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
Town has 2 investigators left: Sam and dininno, and dininno has a trap set on him. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
Also, Lily almost had Lucy come with her instead of Isaac, which would have changed things greatly. Slightly earlier in the day, Isaac had given Microphone 3, the only non-mafia mic, to Lucy. Also, Lucy got to vigilante kill. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
Ironically it's good for town that the two people who died were investigators. |
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| Author: | lilychen [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
How is that a good thing? |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
One was conscripted, and the other went in place of a useful vigilante with the only good mic (and mafia already guessed their role). |
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| Author: | aok [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
abergal: is suicide legal? me: yes |
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| Author: | lilychen [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
Ah fuck. It's OK though, there's not many investigators left to find that out. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
Fuck yeah Asya ftw. |
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| Author: | lilychen [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
Ah well. If she figures that out, gg. It was really fun anyway. |
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| Author: | Josh Frisch [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
I'm confused, why does it matter whether she figures it out? |
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| Author: | lilychen [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
By the way, what's your ruling on the number of clues for my murder? |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
There's a ton of desperadoes. Also, Sam is basically an investigator, since mayor + superhero = investigator. Also, you know what would be hilarious? If Victor investigates Austin Fathman for Dgrazian's kill and gets a negative since gay knight investigations trump mafia deceptive powers. |
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| Author: | lilychen [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
Drat, it kind of looks like it's all falling apart. Oh well. I think town will win at this point.
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| Author: | aok [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
You don't count for the number of clues spawning, since you will never have an opportunity to destroy that clue. Because I implemented auto-destroying of clues by the murderer, there will be 6 clues at both murder sites. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
"Whenever a kill is made, a number of clues spawn equal to the number of mafia (including conscripts), plus the number of rogues, plus one." So it looks like this is similar to if the effect of a button happens when you press it or when you release it. I would say that after the kill is made, there are 5 mafia (4 mafia + 1 rogue) left, plus 1 clue (you can't count as a mafia left since you are dead). And, since you were dead, you couldn't have destroyed the clue for your death. So I would say 6. Aok, tell me if you would rule differently. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
Ah, looks like we thought the same way. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
Isaac is a loss, but I think Lily is a much, much greater loss. I would say things look good for town now. Lily Chen seems like she was the main driving force of the mafia's good play. I think Anpere is too busy to lead, although it depends how much he is willing to punt. The others are too new. That said, it's still a very close game, and I think that at the very least, mafia will make their kills and not be inactive. So if town relaxes, things could easily turn back to the mafia's side. Also, Asya MVP! |
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| Author: | lilychen [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
Francesca is a good mafia player. I think with the foundation I've laid, she'll be able to lead the mafia to a very close game if not an outright victory. I just hope they don't get sloppy now that I'm dead. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 8:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
I definitely think ameliek and Francesca will make kills and play reasonably, but I don't know if they can do high level manipulating and scheming like you can. So I'm saying that if town continues to play as well as they do, then mafia are going to be in trouble, but mafia can definitely win if town gets sloppy. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 8:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts on who will win? |
Just thinking about how interesting play would be if mafia poison Austin Fathman. He could wait a day, make a vigilante kill, and then pretend to be a caught mafia who asks rogues to reveal. Although I'm not sure if Asra is checking forums much... |
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