Live Action Mafia
http://mafia.mit.edu/

Thoughts on who will win?
http://mafia.mit.edu/viewtopic.php?f=104&t=3309		 Page 2 of 6
Author:  isaacg [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
I hope anpere gets lynched tonight. Just looking over tonight's thread, I thought he was acting very strange, and that's before I knew he was mafia.
Author:  jessk [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
Yeah, this post in particular

Quote:
Why haven't we lynched Sam yet? He was with ksedlar when she died, and at the meeting with lily and isaac,
plus he's been a mayor for 5 days! Come on guys, the answer is staring us right in the face. There's
no way I could be don and make every 3 kills, while working at Vecna (keep in mind going from Alewife to MIT and back takes more than an hour).


seems glaringly sketchy. I don't think he should have jumped on the don thing, as only abergal mentioned him briefly before lilychen turned the conversation away from him. ALSO the presumed EC don kills were at night.
Author:  lilychen [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
Yup. I was pretty concerned when anpere posted that. It seems like no one noticed the huge amount of sketch though. Here's hoping they go through with an oreo lynch tonight, and then maybe dukhovni or Lucy tomorrow. :-P
Author:  ksedlar [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 10:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
Agh. :( Sam is asleep. I hope he doesn't sleep through getting lynched, like Josh did last IAP. I feel like I kind of want him up for non-game reasons, but I definitely want him up for game-related reasons, so I probably shouldn't wake him up...
Author:  ksedlar [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 10:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
Gah, this is so painful to watch. He looks so peaceful, as if he has forgotten that yesterday he probably would have been lynched in his sleep too if it weren't for Dgrazian waking him us up.

Ah, Asya, you need to demand that town not lynch him...
Author:  lilychen [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 10:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
NOOOOOOOOO FUCKING HELL WHY ARE THE MAFIA ALL VOTING FOR PEOPLE OTHER THAN ABERGAL'S DESIGNATED TARGET.

Goddammit guys. X_X
Author:  lilychen [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 10:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
I thought it was too obvious to mention, but how can they not realize that intentionally disobeying abergal looks sketchy as all fuck. Q_Q
Author:  aok [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 10:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
Only one mafia other than anpere is not voting for anpere.
Author:  lilychen [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 10:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
Especially Francesca... She's lynching someone who abergal specifically said she trusted. Goddammit. She's going to get lynched and we're going to lose.
Author:  aok [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 11:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
4 people voted to lynch dukhovni, and only one of them is mafia. They'll be fine.
Author:  ksedlar [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 11:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
Lily, do you still think that lynching on soft suspicions is bad for town? It's gotten town Ama and Anpere so far, and lynch-fear was the reason you killed yourself.
Author:  lilychen [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 11:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
Yeah, I'm relieved about the nontrivial number of votes for dukhovni.

And Katie, I might be revising my opinion on that. I think that when no lynch is an option, lynching on a small amount of soft suspicions is not great for town. It might be the case that when town must lynch every night, lynching on soft suspicions is better.
Author:  ksedlar [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 11:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
I also think that lynching on soft suspicions becomes even better when ALL DISCUSSION IS DONE ON FORUMS. That way, people can track who proposed what, who bandwagoned and when, etc. It's also particularly useful because when someone is discovered to be mafia without having time to prep, you can search their forum posts and see who they wanted to lynch. For instance, Shi-ke proposed Akshat, asludds, and Austin Fathman as targets on grounds of not posting. This made me trust Austin even more and bumped asludds onto my mild trust list. Shi-ke announced his vote was for Akshat, and so when he was found to be mafia, this bumped Akshat up to my highest trust tier (although I should have mentioned that it was "trust to not be mafia" not "trust to not be mafia or rogue." I was surprised to see mafia den debating about why I trusted Akshat, when I thought it would have been more clear. Also, if there is a soft suspicions close vote between a mafia and a town, mafia will sometimes go all the way into voting for the townsperson. Imagine what would have happened if someone investigated Ama -> Jakob and people looked at the lynch votes for the night Ama was lynched, for instance.
Author:  isaacg [ Thu Jan 15, 2015 11:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
isaacg wrote:
I hope anpere gets lynched tonight. Just looking over tonight's thread, I thought he was acting very strange, and that's before I knew he was mafia.


Woooo!
Author:  anpere [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 12:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
Welcome Abergal! Damn we should have killed the vampire checking you!
Good Job :)
Author:  ksedlar [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 12:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
So the big thing people haven't mentioned is how mafia are now very isolated. Shi-ke was in Random near players, Ama was in EC near players, Lily interacted with both Random and ET players, and Anpere was in EC near players. Fmajluf7, ameliek and Asra are all away from hubs, and dbausher is fairly inactive. So if town starts planning things in person with the people in their living group, mafia will end up being surprised by a lot of things. Also, it will be very difficult for mafia to significantly influence town decisions. Furthermore, it will start to become hard for mafia to find out where any players will be hanging out if they didn't post that place/time in the intros.

I think mafia will definitely have a hard time winning at this point. The main thing I can see happening to change this is town becoming too suspicious of themselves and lynching each other off. Also, general inactivity (it looks like Austin Fathman has nearly dropped off the radar now that I'm not in contact with him).
Author:  anpere [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 12:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
Also I realize now that I should have just gone to 5w where taylor probably was and tried to kill him myself.
Maybe that way town would have been forced to choose either abergal or Daniel, but not both,
and we could have killed the other.
Author:  ksedlar [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 12:35 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
Town has been very good about keeping track of their soft suspicions and acting on them. I wasn't suspicious of the right people myself (though I did trust the right people), but dininno, tsims, and abergal have all done excellently with theirs. Abergal did a great job of her one day of proven innocence, IMO.

abergal wrote:
Actually, thinking about it, if the options are (lynch dgrazian, taste me) and (lynch me, taste dgrazian), I would prefer the latter, my logic being as follows: 1) If dgrazian is innocent, I think he's probably a more valuable player than me (for reasons relating to my role/my opinion of dgrazian).


I think abergal definitely ended up being the more valuable player this game. And being a more valuable town player than Dgrazian is quite an accomplishment.
Author:  abergal [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 12:47 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
Thanks guys c:. Get wrecked, mafia!

I totally thought lilychen had suicided. I had fmaljuf7 shovel her, but I guess that result didn't really mean anything.
Author:  shikexue [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 1:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
ksedlar wrote:
I also think that lynching on soft suspicions becomes even better when ALL DISCUSSION IS DONE ON FORUMS. That way, people can track who proposed what, who bandwagoned and when, etc. It's also particularly useful because when someone is discovered to be mafia without having time to prep, you can search their forum posts and see who they wanted to lynch. For instance, Shi-ke proposed Akshat, asludds, and Austin Fathman as targets on grounds of not posting. This made me trust Austin even more and bumped asludds onto my mild trust list. Shi-ke announced his vote was for Akshat, and so when he was found to be mafia, this bumped Akshat up to my highest trust tier (although I should have mentioned that it was "trust to not be mafia" not "trust to not be mafia or rogue." I was surprised to see mafia den debating about why I trusted Akshat, when I thought it would have been more clear. Also, if there is a soft suspicions close vote between a mafia and a town, mafia will sometimes go all the way into voting for the townsperson. Imagine what would have happened if someone investigated Ama -> Jakob and people looked at the lynch votes for the night Ama was lynched, for instance.


I maintain that lacking a good mafia lynch target, it is correct play as town to scapegoat inactive players.
Author:  ksedlar [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 1:31 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
That doesn't matter; the fact that a mafia specifically brought up names X, Y, and Z as proposals for lynching means that X, Y, and Z are more likely innocent. The fact that you advocated specifically for Akshat's lynch and then voted him meant that Akshat was almost certainly non-mafia.
Author:  tsims [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 3:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
Anpere: I was locked in my room for 5 hours until the day rolled over :)
Author:  Daniel Grazian [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 7:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
I definitely think town is favored to win now. I'm quite impressed by how fmajluf7 is playing, though.
Author:  lilychen [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:32 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
Asya, what made you think I had killed myself? And did you tell anyone else?
Author:  anpere [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 12:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
ksedlar wrote:
That doesn't matter; the fact that a mafia specifically brought up names X, Y, and Z as proposals for lynching means that X, Y, and Z are more likely innocent. The fact that you advocated specifically for Akshat's lynch and then voted him meant that Akshat was almost certainly non-mafia.

That's exactly why I said not to vote for Sam at the end
I actually thought abergal was bringing a vigilante to kill me, so I decided to defend sam at the very end so there may have been a bit more confusion if I got killed.
Author:  ksedlar [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
So Dukhovni and Lucy are now in my room carefully going through every player and examining them. At one point, they said "fmajluf7 might be a good lynch or investigation target," but it's unclear that they'll follow through with anything.
Author:  ksedlar [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
You know what would be great? If dukhovni counted the mafia right now and got three, forcing him to conclude that Ama and Anpere were mafia, and thus encouraging him to get conclusions out of the Ama lynch vote (which is extremely indicative of who is mafia and who is not).
Author:  aok [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
Unfortunately for town the only townie who can look for clues is dininno, and he's been inactive recently.
Author:  ksedlar [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
Lucy's conclusion after going through everyone is that the suspicious people are fmajluf7, vlonge, frevan, and ameliek. Pretty awesome IMO. I think Lucy and Sam are definitely two of the most competent people left in game.

Also, Oreo activated her medkit today, and Sam correctly put Asya on his paranoia list, making him invincible tomorrow.
Author:  aok [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?
I'm really hoping dbausher steps up for the mafia.
Page 2 of 6 All times are UTC - 5 hours
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
http://www.phpbb.com/