Live Action Mafia
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Thoughts on who will win?
http://mafia.mit.edu/viewtopic.php?f=104&t=3309
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Author:  ksedlar [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

Lololol!

Lucy's comments on game included stating that town was losing badly (it's actually the opposite), blaming her self for asking Isaac for the mic back right before his death (Isaac was kaboomed and Lucy saved the only good mic still in game), and saying that if only she had walked back with Lily and Isaac, they wouldn't have died (true, but I actually think that pair of deaths was good for town, especially since Lily's plan of preventing a lynch on her only got Anpere lynched in her place).

Also, they are pretty sure that a mafia was at the meeting yesterday, and so they are now suspicious of Simmons people + vlonge, rather than Lily, and they are operating under the assumption that 5 mafia are alive, not 3.

Author:  ksedlar [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

I think this game has been a definite case of good town play, rather than bad mafia play. Moreover, it has been town as a whole that has been doing well, not just a few power players. This has also been the best case I've ever seen of town utilizing soft suspicions very, very well. I don't actually think mafia have even made any big mistakes (other than the Ama lynch vote).

Yet now Lucy and Sam are in the process of proposing fmajluf7 for a lynch!

Author:  lilychen [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 5:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

Wow, town is magic this game. I don't there's anything I could have done to stop this if I were alive, so I feel less bad about it now.

Author:  ksedlar [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

Lucy has said she has often had some idea of who a mafia was early on. But this game, she hasn't (anyone she suspected turned out to be town). So she concluded that it was likely that the mafia were people she hasn't interacted with.

I think fmajluf7 and ameliek are going to run into the problem that they have no one to defend them. As far as I know, they haven't interacted in person with anyone this game, and so there will be no one to say that they're trustworthy, and no one who doesn't want to lynch them due to OOG trust mixing with in game trust. Dbausher might be able to avoid a lynch if someone proposed him because he lives near a hub who doesn't particularly distrust him, but he would need to be more active for that to be particularly valuable...

I also think that ameliek voting and a few alibis may have actually been a mistake (though not one obvious in advance), since Lucy and Sam just skipped over players who were less active, such as Brenda.

Author:  pravinas [ Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

Lzahray and sashacf are talking near me and saying how nonsketchy fmajluf is :<

Author:  aok [ Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:34 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

I think the momentum exists to get dukhovni lynched instead.

Author:  isaacg [ Sat Jan 17, 2015 1:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

As far as I can tell, much of town thinks they're losing horrifically. This is very amusing.

Author:  ksedlar [ Sat Jan 17, 2015 2:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

So, Lucy thinks that they are losing, but has decided that at this point she should treat dukhovni as innocent on the grounds that her vigilante test was at least strong evidence of something, and so I think she would defend him.

I am afraid Lisa and Sasha's suspicions are partially my fault; I told the former about how he wanted to run for police officer and the latter that he should be lynched if I die and he doesn't point to another target. However, I also told Lisa / posted to forums that I highly trusted him overall (mostly for giving the receiver to Pravina, when at the time it would have been very easy not to). I forget if I told Lisa that I thought dukhovni's police officer ambitions were also explainable by him being superhero, which I suspected.

Author:  ksedlar [ Sat Jan 17, 2015 2:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

I guess one problem though is that while Lucy trusts Sam, Sam doesn't trust Lucy. He knows that she can use the incant "bang," and he is suspicious of her actually being vigilante.

Author:  ksedlar [ Sat Jan 17, 2015 3:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

isaacg wrote:
As far as I can tell, much of town thinks they're losing horrifically. This is very amusing.


Look at the last post, "The mafia are kicking our butts." I can't wait until the next active townie ends up in graveyard and sees how wrong they are. I think if Lucy can push the fmajluf7 lynch, mafia are all but dead. Dbausher probably would't be active enough to let Ameliek keep being don, and it seems like asra is almost completely inactive. I don't think any mafia could reasonably get themselves elected for a position. I think mafia will also soon run into the problem of increasingly difficult to make kills, since the intros page is less descriptive than it should be (and doesn't have pictures of anyone).

Author:  shikexue [ Sat Jan 17, 2015 5:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

lilychen wrote:
Wow, town is magic this game. I don't there's anything I could have done to stop this if I were alive, so I feel less bad about it now.


They made a movie about the mafia.

Image

Author:  anpere [ Sat Jan 17, 2015 9:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

I think mafia needs to poison Sam before he counts the mafia.

Author:  ksedlar [ Sat Jan 17, 2015 9:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

Poison takes two days though. If I were Sam and I were poisoned, I would announce my poisoned status, then count the mafia the day before my death.

I think mafia is hoping that Sam will get lynched, which seems pretty possible, given that he's had a majority of votes at various points during the past two days. Town is also looking to impeach him.

Author:  anpere [ Sat Jan 17, 2015 10:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

if the mayor gets impeached I don't think town would be able to come together to elect a new.
Especially since mafia destroyed the Abergal's petition :P
And boy, do I wish I could have survived. I believe this could have been my time to shine. :?

Author:  ksedlar [ Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

Lucy wrote:
Something to think about, Hitman does not use up the mafia's kill of the day so that could account for some of the multiple kills.


Oops, I hadn't even noticed that this was a rules change this game.

Also, for the first time, I find myself hoping that town DOESN'T get around to filling out petitions. Sam is doing a fine job as mayor, and his extra votes are actually counting towards helping town. I think having an impeachment and election petition go around would likely take too long and possibly get a worse candidate. The only people who would get much use out of police officer are Sam and Dininno (but both of their roles are known to mafia). Oreo and Austin Fathman, the unused vigilantes, wouldn't actually get much use out of the power to kaboom, since the only medkit is with Miles.

Author:  ksedlar [ Sun Jan 18, 2015 6:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

So, regarding David Kaufman killing Asya in the Bush room to implicate a writing team member, there is a problem: there aren't really any living players on the writing team. The only ones who might possibly be on it are lzahray and lopezv, who are innocent child and dying gay knight, respectively.

Author:  ksedlar [ Sun Jan 18, 2015 6:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

It also might backfire and implicate someone who isn't doing Hunt at all, and thus wouldn't be hard banned from entering.

Author:  ksedlar [ Sun Jan 18, 2015 9:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

I'm curious about if mafia will be able to make their kill today. Also, loling at Lucy's "gay children."

Author:  lilychen [ Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

Francesca is making me proud. :'D

I do hope she realizes that we already tried to slaughter Austin fathman and were wrong, though...

Author:  ksedlar [ Mon Jan 19, 2015 10:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

So Adam Yedidia, cstubbe, and Frevan all went desperado yesterday. The former two should be a bit more active in order to make themselves appealing kill targets (mafia currently have no plans to kill them), but otherwise have reasonable timing, but Frevan had absolutely perfect timing!

Also, it will be interesting to see if oreo uses her vigilante power before she dies, and how. Probably the most amusing method would be by attempting to kill Sam today, who is once again invincible due to superhero paranoia activating when abergal died.

Author:  ksedlar [ Mon Jan 19, 2015 4:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

Oh man, if mafia kill Lucy it will be great. At least as long as they use, "bang." Then Adam Yedidia will be informed of her killer, since he has the receiver to her mic.

Author:  lilychen [ Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

Oreo is being really competent; I'm proud of her too, even though she's the wrong alignment. :-P

And yeah, I think the mafia are ultimately doomed, but hopefully they can get in as many kills as they can. It's a little disappointing that allele dropped off the grid.

Author:  lilychen [ Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

*Amelie. Wow autocorrect.

Author:  ksedlar [ Mon Jan 19, 2015 7:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

dbausher wrote:
I've been waiting in the student center for half an hour or so and no sign of the dinninner

dbausher wrote:
the dinninner

I find this way too funny! :lol:

Author:  jakob [ Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

Graveyard meta, anyone?

Author:  lilychen [ Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

Ermahgerd!

Author:  ksedlar [ Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

So mafia have framed lgunder. But, lgunder is a gay knight. So it will be interesting to see how things turn out if he is investigated.

Also, from Sam's perspective, the only living people who knew dininno was an investigator are lgunder, dbausher, and lzahray. So if mafia make another kill today, it would be very incriminating for dbausher, since the other two are a gay knight and an innocent child.

Author:  lilychen [ Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

Yup. I was worried about that. I think dbausher should be able to make at least one other kamikaze kill tonight if he ends up getting investigated/heavily suspected for it.

Author:  ksedlar [ Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

Sam's going to be around Clam soon. He's immune to kills today though. :)

Author:  ksedlar [ Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Thoughts on who will win?

I'm going to be mildly annoyed if he is too busy taking the AMC to remember to make his mayoral investigation though... :(
At the very least, he will at least have visited the murder site while in his secret identity, so he could still make a mayoral and superhero investigation tomorrow. Except I just realized he can only go superhero if he has explicitly pmed gods that he's going superhero the day before. :(

Unbiased god ksedlar is completely unbiased about which side she wants to win...

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