Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 09, 2015 9:55 pm 
TL;DR think about reasonable theories accounting for all the deaths that have happened and share your ideas here. Don't let me ramble on and on by myself.

Time to give the mafia some laughs as we try to figure out a consistent map of what happened at least for days 2-4. The general outline given by the discussions here and here should be mostly right, but in any simple theory I can think of so far there are some details that just don't make sense. I really encourage any townies (and mafia) to post their theories as long as they're coherent, consistent with the rules of the game, and make some amount of sense for mafia to have done. That's what this thread is for. Feel free to generalize to explanations of day 5 as well, but that's not required for making a helpful post here.

The deaths over these days were:
Day 2:
AustinFathman
Daniel Grazian
ltchin
ksedlar

Day 3:
tsims
Jakob :(
jhgilles [vig-killed]
lilychen (a serial killer) [vig-killed]
regirock (an investigative role)

Day 4:
Lucy (a gay knight)
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Fmajluf7 is now a mechanically confirmed bad person (she posted a kill announcement), as is lilychen (who claimed activated desperado but died to a public bang). kmuhlrad is essentially confirmed bad (two positive investigations, NP confirmation, and a sensible story about faking investigations).

The non-publicly sanctioned kills for these 3 days should be divided into the possibilities: 1) Normal daily kill, 2) scheme kill, 3) trap kill, 4) slaughter kill, 5) hitman kill, 6) SK kill, 7) secret vig (or GN) kill. Tell me if I'm missing anything. Let's try to deal with each as much as possible.

First, general comments about these kill methods (and some bounds):
7) should not exist, unless we have a townie thinking they're really clever and who still hasn't told about their results to any townie alive. (Fringe theory 1: Conscripted vigilante making 2 kills.)

6) Under almost all circumstances, there should be exactly two SK kills, both on days 2 or 3. The only cases where this isn't true would be if a) we lynched an SK before they could kill, b) mafia killed an SK before they could kill, or c) SK got disarmed.
a) is virtually impossible (the only lynch we made was michikyo, who I find very unlikely to just be an SK)
b) is possible, but seems relatively unlikely
c) is possible and less unlikely (at least until we get to counting total kills; see later)

5) There was at most one hitman kill, and, almost certainly, exactly one. There was very little reason for aok to fake-claim a hitman, and, though the investigator who verified the hitman claim was JFK (someone we're now starting to doubt - please find some way to redeem/verify yourself through a new proxy if you're still alive), faking the claim would've also been quite dangerous. Also, aok's actions past this point seemed pretty innocent for the most part.

4) It's very unlikely that there were any slaughter kills. No ICs, if they were following conventional wisdom, started revealing to people until day 3, and then only to tsims. If there were any slaughter kills, there was at most one, and made by a conscripted IC. This should have been picked up by anyone else in the network. (unless: fringe theory 2: tsims was mafia and killed himself to make the IC network look acceptable)

3) At most one trap was set per day. It is very unlikely that anyone who died above (besides regirock and tsims) revealed their roles before day 3. Regirock only revealed to Trek, who we trust because he spoke up about fmajluf7.

2) At most one total scheme used, very unwise to use this early except in case of an emergency.

1) At most one normal kill per day.

Day 4 had one death. Pretty simple to deal with. Let's focus on the other 2 days. Taking the list of non-vig kills, and removing Adam -> dgrazian, we get:
Austin, ltchin, ksedlar // tsims, Jakob, regirock

These need to be accounted for by <=2 (probably exactly 2) daily kills, <=2 (probably exactly 2) SK kills, <=2 traps, and <=1 scheme.

We know the killers for three of the above kills: fmajluf7 (->Austin), lilychen (->ksedlar), and kmuhlrad (->regirock). Understanding motivations around these kills will be helpful in categorizing these kills more clearly.

kmuhlrad -> regirock was a last-minute kill made after day had already been extended by some abrupt vig kills. As such, it was almost certainly an emergency kill. The clearest way to make sense of this is that either
A) regirock found a proxy who happened to be mafia, and kmuhlrad was another mafia member (who happened to have been fake-claiming superhero and giving a bunch of junk results on Austin's death) who was alerted to kill her before she could give out her results.
B) regirock found kmuhlrad as her proxy, and kmuhlrad was an SK. kmuhlrad had been giving fake results on Austin, and decided to kill regirock because the investigation was most likely true.
Option B) would explain the negative investigation on fmajluf7 (made up to be harmless like the others), but does not really explain regirock's claim that she was finding a proxy who wouldn't be associated with her (which would presumably mean not Simmons?). It also would mean kmuhlrad was willing to die of bloodlust before being contacted as a proxy, which makes little sense. So, I'm going to assert option A) here. kmuhlrad was mafia, and the kill, being an emergency, was likely a scheme or a last-minute guessed trap.

If kmuhlrad was mafia, we have two possible conclusions about the fmajluf7 -> Austin kill in relation to the kmuhlrad -> regirock kill.
A) fmajluf7 is a serial killer who, acting on her own, decided on Austin as a good kill target for the reasons explained in the first topic linked above (e.g. IAP game end interactions). kmuhlrad, being a fake superhero/investigator, didn't know who killed Austin, and just gave fake negative investigations wherever needed. When mafia was told the positive fmajluf7 -> Austin investigation, they knew there was no reason for it to be fake, so they asked kmuhlrad to kill the investigator. They then presumably got into contact with fmajluf7.
B) fmajluf7 is mafia, picking Austin for the group for reasons similar to those described above. kmuhlrad gave both of her investigation results to Ama->vlonge on the same day (near the end of day 3), so the fmajluf7 negative investigation was most likely a preemptive response to my post reminding people to investigate fmajluf7, which I told fmajluf7 about before I finished writing it because, well, she was my proxy and all, and I felt guilty accusing her on a hunch. When mafia was told the positive fmajluf7 -> Austin investigation, they knew it was REALLY dangerous, since if released to town it would catch two lying mafia. So kmuhlrad killed the investigator.

I think either of these are possible. A fmajluf7 -> tsims investigation would be pretty helpful for telling us which makes more sense. Now consider the following:

the ?? -> ltchin kill
Lilychen and inisley both (if we believe the investigators) came up innocent. There's no real reason to expect this to have been a trap (why would ltchin reveal her role, in obvious enough a way to trap?), so we have three explanations:
A) Assuming fmajluf7 is an SK: this was simply the daily kill, perhaps done in a way to hint at framing fmajluf7 (who had not yet been found by mafia) after ltchin suggested investigating her.
B) Assuming fmajluf6 is mafia: this was a kill meant to quietly dismiss the suggestion of investigating fmajluf5 without drawing that much attention. It would then be somewhat of an emergency kill, perhaps using a scheme. Or, perhaps one of Austin, ltchin had an investigative role that they revealed to a mafia proxy, and was trap-set for it.
C) Assuming fmajluf4 is mafia again, but the kill was an SK kill. Then the fact that ltchin had suggested investigating fmajluf3 was merely a coincidence, or, again, a subtle attempt at framing. Or a guess that fmajluf2 actually had made the kill.


ksedlar was killed by lilychen, who (according to isaacg) shoveled as serial killer. I don't think there's much reason for him to lie about this, and the fact that lily didn't have a medkit to support her desperado claim makes this seem quite likely (a medkit would've allowed her to perhaps stay alive another day and kamikaze the next if she was mafia). The kill also, it turns out, pretty easily implicated lily, which doesn't feel like mafia planning. And the clues support an SK lily. But I suppose it's still possible that all of this is fake. Just pretty unlikely.

Hmm, so let's think about overall possibilities. Assuming the bounds given above, there existed at least 1 trap kill on day 3. tsims is the obvious candidate here. Unless one of Austin/ltchin was trapped as investigator (superheroes would not have investigated on the first day with deaths, so guessing this is possible if intermediate proxies are forgotten) it seems that this would have been the trap for day 2 (after tsims was forced to reveal). To make this kill without a trap seems pretty silly.

A) If tsims was killed with a trap set on day 2 (note we're assuming people aren't silly enough to get trapped day 1), then the 3 kills on day 2 were daily kills / SK kills / schemes. There was at least 1 SK kill here, that by lilychen (of course). Scheming to kill ltchin for suggesting fmajluf1 seems overkill, but possible. SK killing ltchin is the other main possbiilty for fmajluf=mafia; for fmajluf=SK, ltchin would be the daily kill. Either way, without a scheme, both SKs killed on day 2.
(is it worth shoveling ltchin to see if she had a trappable role?)
In this case day 3 was all mafia kills, so regirock was an emergency trap or a scheme, and Jakob was the normal kill.

B) If tsims was killed with a trap set on day 3, then regirock was almost certainly a scheme unless mafia just decided not to make a normal kill that day. There's no reason to trap no one on day 2 since tsims had revealed, so mafia would then have used a day 2 trap on one of Austin/ltchin, and a normal kill on the other. This would leave an SK kill for day 3, which would be Jakob. This doesn't explain why mafia would frame jhgilles for Jakob's death though... And this would actually mean mafia made no normal kills until 11:58 pm.


Please help by contributing your own ideas!


Miscellaneous notes:
-fmajluf0 would have been a pretty good conscript given her performance as mafia in the IAP game. This would've had to happen in time for her to plan the kill on Austin (unless she's a conscripted SK, whoops), which might explain part of the day 1 mafia inaction.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 09, 2015 10:14 pm 
This is very interesting. What investigations would you recommend, based on them?


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 09, 2015 10:19 pm 
useless commentary: I appreciate the countdown of fmajluf7's username


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 09, 2015 10:21 pm 
I don't :c


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 09, 2015 10:33 pm 
It's my understanding that we've been finding one clue everywhere. We didn't get rid of any besides Lily, so this suggests that mafia accidentally killed a serial killer.

My suspicion is that regirock chose a mafia as a proxy, and was trapped on Day 2.

I think the serial killer kills were ksedlar (by Lily) and Lilly (by unknown serial killer).

Who could the unknown serial killer have been? Anyone dead whose role we don't know.
Jakob: Impossible, he had a good alibi for Lilly's death.
jhgilles: Possible, but unlikely. He wouldn't have made a serial killer kill in Random.
michikyo: Possible, but very unlikely. She seemed extremely disengaged in mafia until right before she was lynched.
ksedlar: When all other options have been eliminated, what remains, however unlikely, must be the truth. I assert that ksedlar, a serial killer, killed Lilly Chin, only to be killed less than half an hour later by the other serial killer, Lily.

A shovel of ksedlar or an investigation of ksedlar-->Lilly could confirm this.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2015 8:17 am 
The investigation I did yesterday refutes my theory that ksedlar killed Lilly.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2015 9:57 am 
Interesting ideas, but a few issues:

aok wrote:
It's my understanding that we've been finding one clue everywhere. We didn't get rid of any besides Lily, so this suggests that mafia accidentally killed a serial killer.

See this official pronouncement on Lucy (day 4)'s death:
Kellena wrote:
Oops. Fixing the confustion since this was our fault: We made a mistake in reporting the number of clues for this death. The correct number should be 2.

Sorry...

So at least one SK was alive by day 4 end, which means exactly 2 SK kills existed, of course.
aok wrote:
My suspicion is that regirock chose a mafia as a proxy, and was trapped on Day 2.


Well, this:
Trek wrote:
Sorry, it seems I missed a rule when reading.

She said to vote for fmajluf7 because she killed austin, and that she was going to find a proxy who wouldn't link to her. She also told me she found one a few minutes before her death but didn't say who it was.

(and the image he had posted) seem to hint that she didn't find a proxy / the guilty investigation until near day 3 end, so this is not that likely. Especially since I doubt mafia would trap a possibly double-proxying person.


aok wrote:
I think the serial killer kills were ksedlar (by Lily) and Lilly (by unknown serial killer).

Who could the unknown serial killer have been? Anyone dead whose role we don't know.

This is certainly a possibility, but why does it have to be someone dead? If they killed ltchin, they could also have made one of the kills on day 5, or be planning to make a kill on day 6.

Finally:
isaacg wrote:
This is very interesting. What investigations would you recommend, based on them?

Thanks for the gentle reminder; I agree that this is the important question, rather than figuring out the precise specifics.

I still think fmajluf7 -> tsims is something that should be checked soon, as well as a confirmation on aradhana -> justinej. Afterwards, probably scour ltchin's and Jakob's deaths until we find someone (perhaps starting by checking known baddies that haven't been checked?). The problem of lying mafia investigators is kind of a pain, so we'll have to deal with that somehow.

Any other theories? I like the "niceness" of the idea that ltchin was killed to silence the fmajluf8 investigation, but niceness could just be a factor throwing us off. So SK kill is reasonable there.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2015 10:04 am 
Good point about there being 2 clues on Day 4. It seems likely we still have a serial killer alive, then.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2015 12:45 pm 
I just counted the mafia, and found that there are 3 remaining.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2015 12:50 pm 
Sorry, inisley entered the room just as I was typing that and I wanted to make sure the info didn't die with me.

This means that one of fmajluf7, Aradhana, and kmuhlrad was not actually mafia (but almost definitely a serial killer). My money's on Aradhana.


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