I was probably somewhat too vulnerable
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| Running Commentary http://mafia.mit.edu/viewtopic.php?f=113&t=3512 |
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| Author: | justinej [ Wed Apr 08, 2015 11:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
I was probably somewhat too vulnerable
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| Author: | Kellena [ Wed Apr 08, 2015 11:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
It's ok. Ara killing you was an idiotic move for mafia. You do not get other EC players to kill in EC. Especially since Andres suspected Ara already. Andres just investigated Ara for the kill. |
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| Author: | Kellena [ Wed Apr 08, 2015 11:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
On an unrelated note, I'm very amused by the mafia's apparent hatred for people who's usernames are in the J-L range. Note on the god spreadsheet how it almost seems like they're picking kills alphabetically XD |
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| Author: | Kellena [ Wed Apr 08, 2015 11:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
Fuck. So the mafia may be even more fucked than previously thought. Ama is trying to convince Brian (4E) NP to lie and claim he didn't see the kill, but he's adamant about claiming he saw the kill, just not mentioning who did it. If Ama posts that Brian saw the kill, and makes up a killer who is not Ara, Andres will be super sketched out by this, and will likely reach the (accurate) conclusion that Ama is the 4E mafia that coordinated this. And then oreo will be our only hope. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 12:20 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
Wait, the conscript can't be the last mafia alive, right? |
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| Author: | Kellena [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 12:23 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
We neither see nor remember that from the rules. Is it mentioned anywhere? Because we don't agree with it. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 12:25 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
Wait, I just realized that jhgilles was an innocent child. I once again point to my strategy suggestion that vigilantes ask their target, "Are you a gay knight or an innocent child?" before killing them. Jhgilles, as a new player, would also pretty clearly not be conscripted. |
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| Author: | jakob [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 12:26 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
Sammy was annoyed with himself afterwards for forgetting to ask that. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 12:33 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
Kellena wrote: We neither see nor remember that from the rules. Is it mentioned anywhere? Because we don't agree with it. Oh, I guess aok might not have added it when he rewrote the rules. It also hasn't been the case in very small games. But it would be really silly if mafia sat on their conscription, and then when town had just caught the last one and was about to lynch them, they conscripted someone, forcing town to start all over with their suspicions. Such a late game conscription would also be unfun for a conscript who, after being about to win, is suddenly forced to switch sides to an enemy they've been fighting for all of game (see, Pesto's reaction in the Fall 2014 game). Also, in terms of flavor, a conscript is someone who mafia forced/threatened into joining them; if all the other mafia are dead, they have no reason to continue carrying out the mafia's wishes. I guess it's reasonable to have that not be a rule if you didn't put it in the rules to begin with, especially because Oreo was conscripted early on in this case and the dumb scenario won't happen. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 12:35 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
jakob wrote: Sammy was annoyed with himself afterwards for forgetting to ask that. Definitely an easy mistake to make in the heat of the moment. I can see him being overly enthusiastic about getting the chance to avenge your death. 
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| Author: | tsims [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 9:10 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
If I remember from the fall game correctly, a conscript can't be the last mafia alive, but the rules may've changed for this game. I think that town may have a chance now that Ara is found out and anpere is kinda sketched by Ama |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 11:10 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
Oh, yeah, the other problem with it being okay for the conscript to be the last mafia alive is that it screws with strategy in an unfortunate way. For instance, in my algorithm, town will never lynch an innocent child or gay knight without a positive investigation, which seems like an optimal strategy to have. If the conscript can't be the last mafia, this works fine. However, if the conscript is the last mafia, and you have an endgame filled with innocent children, gay knights, conspiracy theorists, and vigilantes (which is not that uncommon, because investigatorial roles role reveal to someone at some point and desperadoes activate), things get bad. A conscripted innocent child / gay knight can basically sit around and wait for town to lynch itself off. Because seriously, even if the endgame still had a ton of townies, mafia could win in this situation without even trying, especially if the conscript strategically kills other innocent children / gay knights, because no one could fault town for lynching off the people with non-provable roles first. Even if an IC/GK is acting sketchier than average, it's still generally a bad idea to lynch them. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 11:23 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
Lol, this is currently in group chat: 12:21 Franchi Majluf So I can't get isaacg or anpere. What about inisley? Adam Kalinich 12:21 Adam Kalinich we need to get rid of investigators inisley trusts me 100% I think I can also manipulate her honestly the main reason I think she's not an innocent child is that she hasn't revealed to me yet Aok, it's great that you want to get rid of investigators, but Isaac and Anpere are the investigators, and inisley is a superhero.
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| Author: | Kellena [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 12:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
So I see your point, but that one remaining conscript would also be forced to commit all of the mafia kills by themselves, and always being the one person killing every day vastly increases your chances of 1) being positively investigated 2) being seen/caught through non-mechanics reasons. I think it's hard enough for one mafia to pull a win off unless there are really only <10 people left alive, and even then it's not that simple, that it's ok to have the conscript be the last living (at least in this game, where the mafia didn't specifically conscript with this in mind). |
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| Author: | Kellena [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 12:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
Also, tsims, what does andres really think of Ama? I'm really curious, but I can't ask him because of reading into what the gods say. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 12:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
I often ask players to talk at me, which is to just spew their thoughts about game at me as if I'm a wall. That way I'm not hinting at anything in particular. I also sometimes like to talk at dead people when I'm alive; in fact, that tendency sort of got me killed! (I knocked on Lily's door looking for Dgrazian to talk at right about the time that ltchin was killed, and so Lily thought I was mafia and killed me to try to get disarmed.) |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 1:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
Wow, apparently everyone was skipping 6.004 (which meets in 32-123 from 1-2, when Pravina was killed) today. |
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| Author: | Kellena [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 2:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
Bless fmajluf7. Every time I have been actively thinking something at the mafia, she had said it to them. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 2:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
Yep. I think aok is incorrect in encouraging Oreo to be more aggressive; she's the one with the least suspicion on her now, and aok looking innocent from Oreo being revealed as a conscript is a pretty trivial benefit compared to the downside of Oreo being revealed. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 2:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
Anpere wrote: Also the fox and cat are bloody as hell. Man that was awful ??? Anyone know what Anpere means by this? |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 2:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
Whoops, just forgot to read the flavortext. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 4:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
Wow, graveyard is at over half the post count of mafia den! Although this is mostly because mafia are using Facebook group chat all the time... |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 4:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
sammyluo wrote: isaacg wrote: Alright, can we please take this as an admission of guilt. Of being bad, sure, but not of doing the kill, I think. Last game Jakob made a kill in EC and got sashacf to post the death announcement. No one questioned it, even though sashacf was with Sarah Pratt at ET. Let's not have that happen again. Go Sammyluo! Jakob was just talking about that instance on the facebook chat... |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 5:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
Too bad there is only one member of the IC network now (Sasha). Also, aok's investigator speculations are hilariously off target. "i also doubt inisley would self-proxy," he says in the Facebook chat, while continuing the idea that there must be investigators in ET. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 5:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
Also, I'm pretty sure it's not public knowledge that all the kill sites are 1 clue now. I wonder if mafia will catch Anpere's slip... |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 5:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
Oh, fmajluf7 just pounced on the "maybe Anpere is investigator" idea. |
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| Author: | jakob [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 7:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
I asked Sammy to / Sammy asked to talk at me, and he has been doing so for 1-1.5 hours. He's got a bunch of useful tidbits, in addition to random correct and incorrect suspicions. Most recently, he's been iterating through theories as to who killed whom. Random things: He seems to trust aok more than I would like. At one point he mentioned that aok made 2 mayoral investigations one day, but then dismissed it as an accounting error. He apparently told mads about it though. He was very sure (for some definition of very sure) that aok was innocent as of day 4. He is very paranoid about being killed, to the point that I'm just waiting for the mafia to have mercy and kill him already. He at one point expressed the possibility that kmuhlrad (sp) -> Ama -> vlonge was actually Ama being mafia and claiming otherwise to save herself. While iterating through which kill is which (i.e. trap, SK, mafia), he at one point looked for possibilities if fmajluf7 is SK. He eventually dismissed the possibility because the mafia investigator claimed that fmajluf7 did not kill AustinFathman. He has not theorized anything about the mafia having a real investigator yet [darnit, aok, why aren't you lynched yet]. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 8:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
I swear, people trust aok more when he's mafia than when he's town. |
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| Author: | Lucy [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 8:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
There's a whiteboard at ET with AustinFathman SK written on it. The night before I died, pravina and I (possibly Sasha as well) theorized that the first kill was most likely a SK since it didn't seem to give mafia much of an advantage as an early kill and it was so out of the way that it may have felt like a safer kill to someone acting by themselves. I really wish they had paid more attention to it once it came out that Francesca made that kill. Also proud of mads for wanting aok lynched. And being dead is 20/20 but I feel town should trust anpere more for how much ara's been trying to shift suspicion on to him. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 9:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running Commentary |
The problem is Anpere has said a bunch of crazy things too. He caught a mafia and has said some very clever things, but there's a bunch of sketchy craziness thrown in there as well. But yeah, lynching Anpere isn't good town play. Unfortunately lzahray, the person who could most vouch for Anpere's innocence, has been killed. Really amazed at how Ama has been able to not catch flak for a. reporting a proven false investigation b. scouting Justine's kill c. dealing with a lying NP d. being alibied by a known mafia for ltchin's kill (in terms of investigating her) |
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