On dgrazian's death: I was going to explain very thoroughly all the clues that dgrazian and I gathered against lilychen and why we should lynch her, but it doesn't matter anymore.
So right now we are 5 players. Either 1 or 2 of us are mafia. These are my thoughts. I'm very sorry for the messiness and probably the multiple mistakes in reasoning. Do post responses/disagreements, please.
If there's 1 mafia left:
- lily was most likely mafia. It could also be Miranda, but I'd give lily ~95% suspicion.
- if he/she has a second kill power left or available (hitman, scheme, a set trap, or slaughter the weak), we cannot make a lynch mistake and thus must lynch the correct mafia tonight (he/she kills 1st/4 today, we lynch 2nd/4, he/she kills 3rd/4, and mafia wins because of the tied 1-1). - if Ama is a dying gay knight as she claims to be, the score only goes from 1-1 to 1-0, so it doesn't affect the outcome
- if he/she does not have a second kill power left AND Ama is mafia, we cannot make a lynch mistake and thus must lynch the correct mafia tonight (we lynch 1st/4, they kill 2nd/4, Ama lynches 3rd/4). If we impeach Ama before day end tomorrow, we can make 1 lynch mistake. - if he/she does not have a second kill power left AND Ama is a dying gay knight as she claims to be, we cannot make a lynch mistake and thus must lynch the correct mafia tonight (we lynch 1st/4, Ama dies 2nd/4, they kill 3rd/4, mafia wins 1-1)
- For all the statements with bold letters: if we don't lynch today, we still have the chance to lynch the correct mafia tomorrow, with one more opportunity to catch them when they are killing someone
- if he/she has a third kill power, we lost.
If there are 2 mafia left: - if he/she has a second kill power left or available, we lost - if he/she does not have a second kill power left, we must lynch the correct mafia tonight and tomorrow
This is the reasoning why: - We should either shovel lily OR count the mafia (preferred) today - We should be extremely careful to not die tomorrow - We should impeach Ama tomorrow (AND) - We should all vote to no-lynch today
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