Here was my progression (which leaves out a lot of subtlety and complications):
1. When Francesca first told me about her positive investigation my initial thought was 50-50. I already thought that hire a hitman had probably been used, but I did think that if anybody would have made an investigatable kill, it would have been Miranda (she lives far away and could legitimately hope not to be investigated.) Then again, I didn't trust Francesca.
I was also absolutely convinced at this point that at least one of Miranda, lily, and Francesca were mafia. Miranda soon became pair wise mutually exclusive with the others because they both wanted to lynch her.
2. I kept thinking about it over the course of the meeting, Andy peek probability that Miranda was mafia (reached around 7pm) was 60%. I thought it was reasonably likely that she was a lone mafia and was trying to conscript me by getting me to go to et with her for 'investigations'. My assessment just went down and down from there.
3. By 10:15, my assessment was down to 35%, just high enough to still want to lynch her. She wasn't responding to my call to lynch her, and when I finally texted her to tell her what was happening, her response seemed believable.
4. By 10:50, I was thoroughly convinced that making an investigatable kill was wrong, and I didn't think Miranda would make such a bad play. I had recently gotten a god-clarification that don was in the game. My internal probability was just 30% that Miranda was mafia despite the positive investigation, but even this was too high given the evidence. Anyway, I voted no-lynch and tried to convince gay-knight-partner-mayor to switch her vote. I thought that would be enough, because nobody posted on the forum to say they were voting. I was also simultaneously juggling conversations with Francesca, Ama, and lily which kept me from driving harder. But Ama either disagreed or didn't switch in time. It wouldn't have mattered anyway, because the vote was 7-1 against Miranda. And I didn't have enough time to post my 60% formulated thoughts for why Miranda was probably innocent.
5. After day end, my assessment of Miranda's guilt dropped below 20% (below game average!) as I finished counting things out. Basically, I thoroughly convinced myself that there was absolutely no reason whatsoever for the mafia to make an investigatable kill. Hence Miranda was framed. I posted about this in the town square.
6. As a side note, as of the next morning, I was 60+% sure that lily was mafia and 30% sure that Francesca was. I made it very clear to Ama that I believed lily to be mafia, and I told Francesca that lily was likely mafia if she herself wasn't (I wasn't as forthcoming to Francesca though, because I didn't trust her, and I fully trusted Ama.) Francesca seems thoroughly convinced that lily is mafia though, based on her texts to me
![Smile :-)](./images/smilies/icon_smile.gif)
I didn't think lily would kill me right then and there in our bed though
![Sad :-(](./images/smilies/icon_sad.gif)
I though I would die later in the day.
Sent from iPhone - apologies for any spelling/syntax errors.