Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 6:22 pm 
I indeed have not contributed much to discussion, but this is only because I haven't had very much to say, save some very weak suspicions. But, here they are:

I suspect, like some others have mentioned, that Mafia may have used Manipulate the Presses on Laura's murder. BMF kitchen is such a popular place that it would be very hard to narrow down any list of suspects. For the same reason, I don't feel comfortable lynching anyone yet.

I also don't think that Kate seems suspicious just because she suspects/suspected Daniel. I myself suspected him toward the beginning of the game, because I thought I heard him mumble "not mafia" while at his computer and this seems like a suspicious thing to do. But I might be wrong about having heard that--I have bad hearing. Also, when I walked into the kitchen this morning he bolted, as though he were sincerely terrified of getting murdered, and that doesn't seem like something mafia would do.

I also suspected Fluffy, because he jokingly said he was mafia but the way he said it made it seem like he was indeed mafia. Again, not a very good reason to suspect anyone.

I also suspected JB, because while his reasons for wanting to be mayor are valid, getting a mafia member to be mayor would be really awesome for the mafia and really not awesome for us, and if the mafia were to send anyone to run for mayor because "being a figurehead is fun," I feel like JB would be the perfect person. Also, from what I heard about last night's (not live action) mafia game, JB is very good at leading the mob to lynch whom he wants the mob to lynch, which is a useful skill if you want innocent townspersons lynched. However he seems like a particularly awesome player to have on our side and I wouldn't want to lose him if he turned out to be a townsperson.

Though I'm new at this, it seems to me that while the mafia has the benefit of being organized, all we really have is numbers. And it would be really nice to keep those numbers up if possible. So, again, I will be voting no lynch unless the next murder provides new insight.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 6:29 pm 
Lydia Krasilnikova wrote:
Though I'm new at this, it seems to me that while the mafia has the benefit of being organized, all we really have is numbers. And it would be really nice to keep those numbers up if possible. So, again, I will be voting no lynch unless the next murder provides new insight.


Are you hoping that someone is going to try and tap someone on the shoulder, miss, and then be exposed? Voting no lynch forever isn't going to help.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 6:39 pm 
No, but I am hoping that the next murder will be in a location that fewer players frequent than BMF kitchen. But if there is a murder today it will happen before we vote at midnight, so we should have time to draw inferences from it then.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 6:44 pm 
I'm going to assume that dGrazian and JB are both fairly experienced at this game. I don't know much about Kate, on the other hand, and it seems her reasons for voting out dGrazian are somewhat trivial.

IF dGrazian and JB are both Mafia
THEN it would be a risky move to act in tandem against Kate, who seems to be a relatively small threat, UNLESS the public opinion is already so charged against Kate that they feel it safe to do so, or because it'll get one of their own off the hook. Problem with the latter explanation is that there's apparently no other suspects besides those Daniel himself has listed, and a mafia member would not recommend his own murderous teammate for investigation. Another member of the mafia who *didn't* kill Laura, certainly, but not the actual killer. Unless there's been press manipulation.

IF dGrazian is not Mafia
THEN Kate's actions would be a bit of a red flag, and I can understand the possibility that Kate was trying to get one of the strongest players out of the way early. But if she did this without discussing it with other Mafia members, that would be odd, and it would also be odd if the Mafia agreed to have one of their own start casting suspicion on prominent players so early in the game, thereby putting their own name on the list for suspicion. For this reason, I don't think I can vote Kate to be lynched yet.

Laura was killed in BMF kitchen around 6:45. That's an odd time to kill, since BMF is generally pretty full and it's difficult to tell who's going to be around at/around dinnertime. For this reason, I wouldn't much suspect those who aren't Random regulars; they'd stick out like a sore thumb if they wandered alone into BMF looking for a target. So to me, EITHER the murderer was a Random regular, OR the press was manipulated into placing suspicion on Random regulars, specifically the four that Daniel named. However, I don't have enough information to go on.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 6:47 pm 
Also:

I am currently in BMF kitchen. So is Ami Greene. This is paranoia; take it as you will.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 6:52 pm 
kaima wrote:
So to me, EITHER the murderer was a Random regular, OR the press was manipulated into placing suspicion on Random regulars, specifically the four that Daniel named. However, I don't have enough information to go on.

Daniel named the four after the murder happened, so I don't think that line of reasoning quite works...

I'm still a little miffed by the anonymous/illegal "investigator" outburst, since it really threw off some of my suspicions. But look at it this way:

Scenario 1: investigator is really a Mafia member
--> they probably posted hoping that suspicion would be thrown off of Kate (who, in this case, would probably be a fellow mafia)

Scenario 2: investigator is the actual investigator
--> Then we have two options. In both cases, most likely they actually did an investigation and came out with a negative and were completely telling the truth.
--> HOWEVER, this could either mean that Kate IS or ISN'T mafia - keep in mind there are FOUR of them, so she could very well be one herself even if she didn't make the kill

JRC, do you have any other reason for Lydia besides my mention that she didn't really contribute?

Until I have further evidence, I will be voting for Kate.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 6:53 pm 
In response to kaima:

It's completely possible that Kate was acting alone if in fact she did this. There are instances in the old mafia dens, especially early on, that one mafia member did something without consulting the others because they thought it was a good idea. I don't know how experienced Kate is, but I would suspect not extremely, so it would be completely possible that this is what happened.

Not saying this is what I think actually happened, just that you shouldn't dismiss random possibilities so lightly.

Also, I'm kind of leaning towards lynching Kate right now, partly because of previous discussion about her acting suspicious, and partly because I could sleep easier not having to worry about my roommate killing me. As I've mentioned to people in person, I plan on locking my door while I'm sleeping for the duration of game.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 6:58 pm 
Lydia, the issue with Kate is not that she suspected me. That is a perfectly reasonable thing to do. It is not reasonable to try to covertly get a group to lynch me on day 1.

As jayarsea said, we do not want to vote no-lynch forever. Kate is the clearest suspect, and I think it is reasonable to say that she is the clear choice right now.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:00 pm 
Elizabeth:

This is true, and thank you for reminding me. It seems the Mafia Dens aren't very...talkative, most of the time, so maybe Kate really was acting on her own.

Although I wouldn't lynch Kate for being your roommate, either - having you be killed in your own room, with your roommate a fellow player who's been under suspicion for being Mafia, and who would probably have no alibi for doing so, seems to me to be a foolish move. The Mafia might even have to waste a Manipulate the Press on that to rescue Kate, and I don't see why they should want to do that.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:03 pm 
Yeah, I know that, rationally, it doesn't make sense. Doesn't change the fact that it would make me feel safer. Sorry Kate, but it's true.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:04 pm 
kaima wrote:
Although I wouldn't lynch Kate for being your roommate, either - having you be killed in your own room, with your roommate a fellow player who's been under suspicion for being Mafia, and who would probably have no alibi for doing so, seems to me to be a foolish move. The Mafia might even have to waste a Manipulate the Press on that to rescue Kate, and I don't see why they should want to do that.

For the most part, the rest of the town can usually easily deduce the killer if something like this happens (for example, if I'm killed during a Next House study break, it would probably be easy to figure out who did it...) The Mafia only have one chance to manipulate the press, so if more than one "obvious kill" ever comes up, we can definitely go on knowledge of location/people involved to make a guess. So I agree with kaima - you shouldn't have to be worried about your roommate killing you unless the Mafia are specifically using Kate as bait in some twisted way (I can't conceive of a method in which this would actually be beneficial, but who knows...)


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:07 pm 
Also... it's nearing the end of Day 2, and we still haven't heard from:
-Bobby Fortanely
-Mats
-AmiGreene
-Gabriel


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:37 pm 
Question: If I'm in, say, BMF kitchen with a group of people, and I duck down to get something from my cabinet thingy, and someone squats next to me, such that you can't really see the two of us from the rest of the kitchen, and he/she kills me, in the same room as other people but not visible to them, am I allowed to say something about how I'm currently dying?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:41 pm 
Lydia Krasilnikova wrote:
Question: If I'm in, say, BMF kitchen with a group of people, and I duck down to get something from my cabinet thingy, and someone squats next to me, such that you can't really see the two of us from the rest of the kitchen, and he/she kills me, in the same room as other people but not visible to them, am I allowed to say something about how I'm currently dying?


I would say absolutely not, but that's up to Alex. Once you're dead, you're dead. Dead people don't talk.

Now, if they hadn't completed the kill (just tapped you on the shoulder without saying "Bang!"), that's another thing entirely.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:42 pm 
I agree with jayarsea.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:53 pm 
In a similar vein, and for the sake of clarification, how loudly do they have to say Bang? If we're going with realistically gunshot-like, I would assume that the people in the kitchen in Lydia's hypothetical should be able to hear it and thus tell whether they were being murdered, but still, Alex, could you clarify?

In terms of being able to tell whether someone was just killed (taking Lydia's hypothetical example), you could always just ask the person when they reappear whether they're still alive. If they are dead, they won't be able to tell you, and in any case there will be an announcement soon to tell everyone of their death.

I guess a bit of a solution to this could be that if you see something suspicious happening, ask if everyone's still alive, note the time, and watch the announcements to see if any deaths happened at that time. I'm not an experienced player, so let me know if I'm saying something silly or nonsensical.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:55 pm 
The Mafia needs to make it clear to the target that they were killed. Ambiguous kills are likely to be ruled in favor of the victim.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:55 pm 
Thanks for the clarification, Alex.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:58 pm 
I'm taking a two-hour nap until 10. Call me if my attention is needed.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:59 pm 
Thank you!


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 8:04 pm 
It doesn't seem Kate stands much of a chance now. Maybe she can say something to defend herself, and why she tried to covertly get a group to kill DGrazian?

I would probably also vote Kate, unless today's murder brings new information to light that changes things. Today's murder has not happened yet right? Does that simply mean the Mafia are late - or that the murder got blocked due to some power?

I am inclined to think that Mafia has not manipulated the press - BMF Kitchen doesn't seem to accuse anyone who is innocent, and the Mafia would want to accuse an innocent with that power.

The investigator should reveal that Kate is not Mafia if that is what they investigated - this is very important. Otherwise we can assume the fake Investigator was indeed Mafia. But it seems that the investigator was probably fake anyway, because Kate didn't seem to play a role until today so they probably wouldn't have investigated Kate anyway.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 8:05 pm 
Also I think the 4 people that haven't discussed yet seems slightly sketchy. A good Mafia tactic would be to remain completely silent.

Once I played Mafia and one of the Mafia members had their earphones on the whole game, no-one suspected them and Mafia won.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 8:14 pm 
I was approached by Kate along with Brogan about suspecting Daniel, having been told that a few minutes before game he'd been running about tapping people on the shoulder. My name:face association capability is minimal, but I'd had this happen to me by someone at 11:59.

That said, I believe I must also vote Kate in this situation, and I'll be holing up in my room for the next four hours.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 8:37 pm 
Aviv is looking to troll game. FYI.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 8:41 pm 
It seems highly stupid to judge whether a person is mafia based on what they were doing BEFORE the game started ...


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 8:43 pm 
Agreed.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 8:45 pm 
JB Parkes wrote:
Aviv is looking to troll game. FYI.


Is this someone from Random who isn't playing?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 8:50 pm 
This is correct.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 8:57 pm 
If aviv taps me on the shoulder and says bang, and tells me that he is *not* the hitman, I will just punch him. When the possibility of a hitman exists, that's just REALLY not okay.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 9:00 pm 
Ok, what is this about an anon investigator post? Has something been taken down from the forums?


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