Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 12:06 am 
Yesterday, Kaima was killed and Lydia was lynched. Discuss.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 12:39 am 
Important things to note:
- Vinoth encouraged the investigator to post under an anonymous account. The anonymous poster then said that Kate was innocent. Vinoth voted for Kate anyways.
- JJ/JY voted no-lynch without entering the discussion. Anyone playing mafia should know that by day 2, no-lynch isn't a good thing, especially with bits and pieces of evidence floating around. Could I hear from the two of them regarding why they voted that way (and together?) I think they're pretty close friends (and proximity-wise) but I'm not sure if that's significant.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 12:45 am 
Until the voting occurred, I had assumed that Vinoth was the anon poster - remember that the anon post went up very quickly after Vinoth recommended it. However, if Vinoth posted that Kate was innocent, why would he then try to vote her off? I suppose it's possible that this was an attempt to throw us off the trail and make us think that he wasn't the anon, but it's also quite likely that it just wasn't him.

Nevertheless, Vinoth - can you tell us why you voted for Kate?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 1:22 am 
i voted no-lynch simply b/c i have no idea how lydia is suddenly deemed suspicious. (well i didn't read the forum extremely closely - had about 10 min to read it over starting from page 2 + to vote when i came back from the go club), but it appeared to me that people just randomly shifted attention to lydia once a couple people started trusting kate. Well, i had no reason to suspect either of them, i dunno what they look like, never talked to them, never heard any discussions about them other than from the forum. I simply didn't feel like going with the flow, although it did seem like lynching lydia was prob. what was going to happen, when i hurriedly voted at 11;56 lol.

And yeah, this yr i do kinda feel like i'm outta the loop - sadly can't do much about it, had to work on a deadline from 9 to 6pm today and was at go club since 7pm.

i went to jy's room after coming back from go club, read the forum and voted on her laptop, told her i'm voting no lynch, then she was like 'oh shoot i need to vote too' and voted the same thing =.=


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 1:31 am 
^ lemme know if you guys want to get a Next House discussion meetup going. There's five of us total (you, me, JY, Di, Joy), so even if there is a mafia in our midst, we'd all be safe and might even be able to get some information out of her.


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 Post subject: meet
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 1:43 am 
I'd love to meet the next house people. If you're meeting after 8pm tomorrow, please let me know and I'll be there.


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 Post subject: some lists
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 1:47 am 
I'll get to a post with some thoughts after this, but in the mean time here are some stats:

These people voted with the majority both times --
Elizabeth Krueger
Fluffy
Hilary.Monaco
JB Parkes
Nicole
VivianLee

These people did not vote either day --
AmiGreene
Bobby Fortanely
Gabriel
Mark Velednitsky
mats_a

I, personally, did not vote because I feel like I do not know people well enough, yet. I made some headway today by seeing people in Random and I hope that I will get to see people in Next tomorrow.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 1:56 am 
Even if you vote not to lynch anyone, I think the game is meant to have people at least vote *something*....

For example, if no one voted for anything on Day 1, there would be no method in the verbatim of the rules to solve that vote.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 2:09 am 
fluffy wrote:
Even if you vote not to lynch anyone, I think the game is meant to have people at least vote *something*....

For example, if no one voted for anything on Day 1, there would be no method in the verbatim of the rules to solve that vote.


The Rules Forum Section wrote:
What happens if nobody votes on a day?

The answer follows from the rules as written, but I'll clarify it, as it might not be intuitive.

The result is not (necesarrily) No-Lynch. Rather, no votes is a tie between all options, which consists of the players alive and No-Lynch. This tie is resolved by looking back at which option would have won the vote the previous day. Note that votes for players who are no longer alive are ignored. If options tie again on the previous day, those options are tiebroken by the day before that, and so on, until one option is the winner.

If the recurses all the way back to the first day, I'll choose an option at random out of the tied ones still remaining.


I beg to differ.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 2:14 am 
I realize that here I say votes of now-dead people are ignored, which is not true as stated in the rules. I'm editing this to make it in line with the rules.

The tiebreak rules are still pretty ugly. Maybe I can find a better implementation for next game.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 2:20 am 
JB Parkes wrote:

I beg to differ.


Oh... you're right! Which means that each of the 26 people left at the end of day 1 would have had a 1/27 chance of dying, and there would have been a 1/27 chance of no one dying. Fascinating.


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 Post subject: my current thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 2:26 am 
Let's consider the following post (by Vinoth) with the following assumptions:
(1) Kate is not Mafia
(2) Lydia is Mafia
(3) The Mafia manipulated the press on the first murder (which people seemed to believe when I was in Random today)

"It doesn't seem Kate stands much of a chance now. Maybe she can say something to defend herself, and why she tried to covertly get a group to kill DGrazian?"

-- This paragraph accuses Kate, which is what the Mafia would obviously want under assumption (1)

"I would probably also vote Kate, unless today's murder brings new information to light that changes things. Today's murder has not happened yet right? Does that simply mean the Mafia are late - or that the murder got blocked due to some power?"

-- This paragraph is suspicious: he seems to try to establish that he is innocent by virtue of ignorance... is it really likely that he knows the rules better than he is alluding at this point.

"I am inclined to think that Mafia has not manipulated the press - BMF Kitchen doesn't seem to accuse anyone who is innocent, and the Mafia would want to accuse an innocent with that power."

-- This is what the Mafia would obviously want the townspeople to believe if assumption (3) is true.

"The investigator should reveal that Kate is not Mafia if that is what they investigated - this is very important. Otherwise we can assume the fake Investigator was indeed Mafia. But it seems that the investigator was probably fake anyway, because Kate didn't seem to play a role until today so they probably wouldn't have investigated Kate anyway."

-- I'm not entirely sure if I understand what this means, but I think it's basically asking an investigator to reveal their identity for no apparent reason.

-- Also, Vinoth got on the bandwagon on the first day (No Lynch), but voted with a clear minority today, despite the fact that he was on the forum beginning at 10:20pm. Perhaps he spent the time from 10:20 to midnight in the mafia den attempting to scheme a way to keep Lydia alive? That would be consistent with assumption (2)...

-- All this being said, I do not think Vinoth made the fake investigator account... the investigator's post uses "its" in place of "it's" and does not use proper capitalization. If Vinoth was rushing to make an account, I do not think he would think about subtly changing his diction for the sake of confusing us.

Of course, on the flip side, he is playing for the first time, so perhaps the misunderstandings and illogical suggestions are a symptom of that. In addition, my someone flimsy reasoning is based in part on my assumptions, which seem to reflect majority opinion but are not necessarily "proven."

Even so, I am going to be voting for Vinoth tomorrow if there is no new information.

At any rate, I have a lot I want to say but I don't want to type it all out... even this post is beginning to sound convoluted. Bleh. Hopefully there'll be a meeting tomorrow!


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 2:53 am 
I just got up. I've been sleeping in my room since about 8:30 p.m.

I'd like to make a note right now that I don't think anybody has considered on the forum (please somebody correct me if I am having a brain lapse.):

Anonymous posts such as the illegally posted investigator post and posts of the type Lydia suggested can be made by anyone without any accountability whatsoever.
Therefore a mafia could make such a post with a 0% chance of it being traced back to him/her.
Therefore the mafia have no incentive to refrain from using such anonymous communication.
Therefore such anonymous communication is pretty much worthless to us.

Also, as far as I can tell, nothing has changed that should modify suspicions about Kate. Innocence in a particular murder in no way implies non-mafia status. There are 4 mafia at the start of the game, and there is a very large chance that two of them are in Random.


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 Post subject: investigator
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:02 am 
Someone did point out that the investigator's post has no credibility, but there are two things to consider:

-- The post was made very shortly after Vinoth's suggestion. The Mafia tend to discuss things before acting (I would think, right?), so unless one of them decided to take initiative without consulting the others, then the post is probably valid. That being said, Kate could still be Mafia.

-- There are reasons other than the anonymous post that people believe Kate is innocent (or at least that she is innocent of TODAY'S murder).

You should probably read more of yesterday's posts.

I am tempted to look further into the diction of the "investigator's" post, but I'm afraid that might lead to a real investigator rather than a Mafia member... what would you recommend?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:13 am 
I did read yesterday's posts reasonably thoroughly.

The suspicion around Kate was not related to her possibly having committed either of the two murders. It was because of her behavior in trying to get me lynched on the first day for no legitimate reason.

I am saying that in general anonymous posts have no credibility, not just the investigator post; and I agree that there are reasonable interpretations that can be made regarding the anonymous investigator


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 10:18 am 
I had a thought.

JB, would you kindly provide a list of all the people who signed your mayoral petition?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 11:09 am 
People who signed just after midnight on Day 1:
Bobby Fortanely
Lydia Krasilnikova
Dgrazian
Kaima
Alexwest
Matz
Amy Green

People who signed after Foo Mafia game:
fluffy
Elizabeth Kru
Kate O'Connor
Nicole
Brogan King
J Bradford Parkes II (me)
and Brian Iglesias for good measure (his was signature 1/2 game + 1)

people reluctant to sign:
Laura
Vinoth
Kate O'Connor (who signed just after Kru, but not after midnight)

Excited, I turned in my petition in to Alex just after midnight Day 2.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 11:19 am 
JB Parkes wrote:
People who signed just after midnight on Day 1:
Bobby Fortanely
Lydia Krasilnikova
Dgrazian
Kaima
Alexwest
Matz
Amy Green

People who signed after Foo Mafia game:
fluffy
Elizabeth Kru
Kate O'Connor
Nicole
Brogan King
J Bradford Parkes II (me)
and Brian Iglesias for good measure (his was signature 1/2 game + 1)

people reluctant to sign:
Laura
Vinoth
Kate O'Connor (who signed just after Kru, but not after midnight)

Excited, I turned in my petition in to Alex just after midnight Day 2.


Thank you. Is there a way that this petition can be seen to verify the signers (Alex)?

I appreciate your release of this information.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 11:22 am 
Would anyone care to say that they didn't sign the petition in the meanwhile? Alex did inspect it for validity, and I assumed signatures were kludged.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 11:31 am 
VivianLee wrote:
^ lemme know if you guys want to get a Next House discussion meetup going. There's five of us total (you, me, JY, Di, Joy), so even if there is a mafia in our midst, we'd all be safe and might even be able to get some information out of her.


yeah, sounds like a good idea. and woah, there are so few of us from next house this yr! didn't realize that...

so i'm busy all day until 10 pm today >< (urop from 10am to 5 or 6pm most likely, escaping to poetry class for an hr at 1pm, then scheme class from 7 to 9, then web programming from 9 to 10). But if you guys are up for meeting after 10:30 ish, it would be great. And what i really want to do is to visit random sometime..(maybe after urop and b4 7), if anyone wants to come w/ me =)


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 11:38 am 
To defend myself against the accusations that I am Mafia:

I ignored the anonymous Investigator post because it seemed clear that it was a fake, so I voted for Kate. I later asked if the Investigator would confirm that Kate was indeed innocent (as the anonymous post said), when everyone appeared to be voting for Kate; but no-one responded - this confirmed to me that the Investigator post was fake. The chance that the Investigator would have looked into Kate anyway is highly unlikely: Kate was not flagged until Voting results for Day 1 came out. Kate's reason for suggesting David (based on things he did BEFORE the game) seemed sketchy. I was also not convinced there was sufficient evidence against Lydia - just because she lived in Random House didn't seem convincing enough (there are many other players who live in Random House).

Mark, I still think your assumption that the Mafia did manipulate the press is wrong. If they were to do so, it would seem much more effective to say.. have Laura murdered in my room, which would almost certainly get me lynched the following day. Also your assumption that Kate is not Mafia is not majority opinion, yesterday if not for Kaima's mafia Kate would be lynched by now.

I also wasn't asking the investigator to reveal for no reason. If he had (in the unlikely event) in fact looked into Kate, I think it would be worth to save Kate from a lynch (that was near certain at that point), at the cost of revealing an Investigator (it would be worth saving an innocent life at the cost of slightly endangering another).

Finally, I wasn't scheming to keep Lydia alive - I was just asking why she was the prime suspect. If Kate had been lynched yesterday instead, I would be probably be voting to kill Lydia today.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 11:39 am 
And I'd be happy to come to Next House to discuss things today, let me know when you finalize that.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 11:47 am 
*clearly procrastinating at urop*

=D everyone should come to next house today!! =DD excited to meet y'all!


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 12:08 pm 
Vinoth wrote:

I ignored the anonymous Investigator post because it seemed clear that it was a fake, so I voted for Kate. I later asked if the Investigator would confirm that Kate was indeed innocent (as the anonymous post said), when everyone appeared to be voting for Kate; but no-one responded - this confirmed to me that the Investigator post was fake. The chance that the Investigator would have looked into Kate anyway is highly unlikely: Kate was not flagged until Voting results for Day 1 came out....

I also wasn't asking the investigator to reveal for no reason. If he had (in the unlikely event) in fact looked into Kate, I think it would be worth to save Kate from a lynch (that was near certain at that point), at the cost of revealing an Investigator (it would be worth saving an innocent life at the cost of slightly endangering another).



I completely and entirely disagree. Innocents will be lynched. An investigator for saving an innocent is not a good trade.

(Note I've redacted parts of his post)

Why is it clear it was a fake, Vinoth?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 12:09 pm 
JB Parkes wrote:
Would anyone care to say that they didn't sign the petition in the meanwhile? Alex did inspect it for validity, and I assumed signatures were kludged.


I mean, I'd want to see that you weren't lying about the people on the petition. (aka saying that some dead people signed in when they did not, or excluding people who actually did sign it).


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 12:19 pm 
jayarsea wrote:
JB Parkes wrote:
Would anyone care to say that they didn't sign the petition in the meanwhile? Alex did inspect it for validity, and I assumed signatures were kludged.


I mean, I'd want to see that you weren't lying about the people on the petition. (aka saying that some dead people signed in when they did not, or excluding people who actually did sign it).


Ah, I see your point. I don't have a scanner. Would you care to appoint someone in Random to inspect it? Or if someone in Random has a scanner, might I borrow it and then put up a link to the scanned image?

You can be assured that it is the genuine article if you see the physical copy; it occupies the sole page in front of my scorecard game of 1000 blank white cards which was played later that very night, after I got midnight signatures. For this reason, I'd like to keep the petition as a page in my notebook.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 12:42 pm 
How about 11pm tonight at Next House for whoever wants to drop by? We can all gather in the TFL to chat (and maybe play a few rounds of mafia later?)


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 12:45 pm 
The mafia thus far has been making kills in the evening. I think we've had some small issues in the past by not being available for discussion right after kills happen (for example, Jason Chiu yesterday claimed he didn't look at the forum until 11:30pm, when I asked him who he would be voting for... by the way, he didn't say who he'd vote for, and ended up voting without joining the discussion...)

So let's try to all be near our computers tonight, especially around the 10-11pm time so we can actually have clear communication on who we may want to lynch today. I think yesterday's was a major toss-up between Lydia/Kate and a lot of us were confused as to how to swing the vote.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 12:46 pm 
11pm sounds good! whichever randomites/non-nexties can make it, should come, too
=))


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 12:56 pm 
To Jayarsea:
Yes inspector for innocent life is not a good trade. But it didn't have to be a trade - yesterday we had the MedKit on our side presumably, we could have arranged for the MedKit to go to the Inspector (but of course this would prompt Mafia to impersonate again to get the Medkit so I guess this doesn't work well either ...)

My reasons why the Investigator post on Day 2 discussion is fake are:
- Chances that Kate would be investigated. Kate was not flagged on Day 1, she was on the list of > 10 people to be investigated. But Kate suddenly got flagged on Day 2 due to Day 1 voting results ... so what is the Chance that Kate was one of the two people to be investigated on Day 1? Very small ... so it was probably fake. I just wanted whatever information the Investigators had learned to be public, I didn't ask/expect that Kate would have been investigated.
- The Investigator comment came just minutes after I asked for it. What is the chance that a real Investigator was on the forum at the time? Very small.
- Lastly, the investigator should have protected Kate on the forum yesterday, before Kaima was killed, (without revealing) at the very least if in fact they were true. The only such person who protected Kate is you, Jayarsea, as far as I can tell. So either Jayarsea is the anonymous investigator (which would make sense, since you are claiming that the investigator's post was not fake), or the investigator is fake.

Since Alex said Lydia's forum is acceptable for impersonations - maybe the Investigators can anonymously reveal what Information they have on Lydia's forum? They should have collected 4 pieces of information by now .. unless one of the investigators died. Lydia's commentbox is the following: http://krastheline.wordpress.com/2011/0 ... /#comments


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