Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 9:20 am 
mats_a wrote:
JB also came around and said he wanted to talk when less sleepy, as he claimed to be suspicious of me. Unless JB is a 1-level-meta player (which he can certainly pull off), this may be weak evidence that he is not mafia.


Small clarifications: I wasn't sleepy, I was drinking. Secondly, I replied that I wanted to discuss this bizarre kill situation later once I was sober (not quite yet) because I couldn't follow what you were saying at the time clearly. Happy Russian Old New Year everybody!


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 9:22 am 
Just a thought - mats, are you sure you were actually with Daniel at 12:01, or had you already returned home by then? Is it possible that someone who knew you guys went to Shaw's together killed Daniel immediately after his return to Random and then manipped the presses to put the blame for the kill on you? While I agree that it would be a pretty dumb move for you to come forward


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 9:24 am 
ahhh - hit enter by mistake...

...would be a dumb move for you to come forward with this elaborate story about being w/ Daniel at the time of the kill if you were mafia, right now we only have your word about your location and Daniel's at 12:01. For all we know, neither of you were even in Shaw's then (although if Daniel really did come back with cake supplies, I suppose that's probably convincing - can anyone confirm this?)


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 9:30 am 
Also, if Daniel did kill himself - is there any reason why it's more likely that he was a conscript than mafia from the beginning?

Lastly - can we think of anyone who would've wanted Daniel dead?

mats, did you see anyone else in the store or on the way there/back who looked like they might be an MIT student? It's quite possible that we have a case of a hitman on our hands.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 10:36 am 
Assuming Mats wouldn't be stupid enough to try to make some crazy elaborate story about this (and I feel like I know him well enough to say he wouldn't), I seriously feel like there's a hitman involved in this situation. So many Randomites know what's going on with the game and would easily be able to go to Shaw's without being noticed by either Mats or Daniel.

I would also like some sort of proof that Daniel was at the store, if that's possible.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 11:18 am 
@Vivian:
Yes I checked the time it was literally 12:01 at the checkout line. Also Manipulate the Presses seems very unlikely. Extremely given all the evidence. I am not sure why it is even being considered.

@Brogan:
(I actually used to do this ridiculous stuff even when not mafia, but got killed rather quickly. =p All the time, ages ago. So I have disincentive.) Daniel came back with Shaws supplies. You can ask around. I hear he said to JRC and Vinoth and maybe others he needed to run to Shaws quickly before they closed for supplies. There are probably other ways to confirm this.

I do *not* feel a hitman was likely to have been involved. The store was practically closed, and I would recognize any Randomite. Did anyone from elsewhere "go home" at around 12? It seems more likely someone may have very carefully tailed dgrazian and I missed them. Or I just fail at noticing people. (Or the mafia really went out of their way to find a hitman absolutely no one would recognize, in which case there's always that possibility. But he wouldn't have known dgrazian was there. Did someone go to board games and return to SidPac after going to Star?)

I also have been heard that there had been at least one person fingering dgrazian, possibly in a bid to gain credibility in a planned death, but I don't feel I have the political capital to name names right now.

(Possibility of early kill: the mafia may have done significant planning since the early kill yesterday bottled up their kill queue, if they even have one.)

My breakdown is:
75% - a tail neither of us noticed, who was at the board games session, or alerted by someone texting, perhaps but not necessarily JRC (who was playing dominion with Vinoth(dead)) or someone else who was playing dominion
7% - a failed, too-complicated play by dgrazian as mafia, that I am redeeming by talking too much
3% - some unfound interaction of items or people that makes a suicide a good idea
10% - a chance encounter with mafia (perhaps), who took his time walking up the checkout line, and arrived after I left (since it was the last call for checkout), and then dgrazian and the mafia talked and took their time to come outside (I was looking behind me and didn't see anyone, though I was quickly walking, and in that case two people would have needed to check out -- though I thought Daniel was the last one in line) -- this puts high probably on anyone who may live nearby (including all Randomites), but also Nicole and Jason. maybe it was some last-minute mystery hunt shopping
5% - something we aren't suspecting


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 11:37 am 
Brogan wrote:

I would also like some sort of proof that Daniel was at the store, if that's possible.

He said he was going to the store. It's why he didn't help me explain to Vinoth the rules of Dominion.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 11:48 am 
I'd offer to show y'all my phone (txt messages + calls), but those are easily deletable.

I can't believe this "did dgrazien commit suicide" idea has gained traction.


Pending that, I find it hard to believe that no one else at Random knew that Dgrazien was going to go baking.

Who, on a whim, decides "let's bake cookies?" (Forgive me, my Simmons may be showing).

A much more likely scenario is that someone else found out he was going (anyone who was playing table mafia was in position to hear him declare his intent after the subject of playing board games was brought up) and decided to make a shopping trip and wait for him at the same time. Going to Shaws isn't suspicious, but being stuck in the checkout line at Shaws is a perfect time to kill someone; they can't run away or shout and make a scene.

I'm boggled by mats' sudden interest in this game at dgrazien's death. He was pretty much inert for the first 4-5 days and all of a sudden he's got his theories. What changed?

His minimal contribution in the early stage was misleading as well; he led people to believe fake ID holders could only vote with their name (x)OR their fake ID which was patently untrue.

I will be voting for mats_a as per above.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 11:52 am 
One thing still bothers me:

Where did Kate go last night? She was playing table mafia with us last night and must've heard Dgrazien's statement. She was nearly on the chopping block, and got weaseled out when the lynch suddenly shifted to Lydia.

PS: anyone seen or heard from Alex West lately?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 11:55 am 
Vivian, can anyone verify that you were in your room last night?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 12:48 pm 
^ I wish I could say yes, but I can't, as I was asleep with the door locked...

I have no idea why Dgrazian, mafia or not, would suicide. Unless the game has really become THAT complex, it's a bad thing for the mafia either way - they only have a max of 4 people alive (assuming worst-case conscription) and having Dgrazian kill himself makes the game something like a 15:3 ratio against them.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 12:50 pm 
Just had a strange thought... this seems unlikely, but I thought I'd float it anyways:

Is it possible that Mats is mafia but didn't kill DGrazian? What if there were three players in Shaw's last night, and Mats is well-aware who the killer is, but covering for him because he's mafia too? By drawing all this attention onto himself, he makes himself look innocent, and on the off chance we do think he's acting sketchy, investigating him for last night's murder would turn up negative.

Plausible? Yes? No? Nicole, you're crazy?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 12:56 pm 
So you're saying that Mats -and- Dgrazian's killer are both mafia and were both st Shaw's last night?

That's actually a pretty legit suggestion... but on that note, who should we have JJ investigate? By the above idea, the possibilities are endless...


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 12:57 pm 
Nicole wrote:
Just had a strange thought... this seems unlikely, but I thought I'd float it anyways:

Is it possible that Mats is mafia but didn't kill DGrazian? What if there were three players in Shaw's last night, and Mats is well-aware who the killer is, but covering for him because he's mafia too? By drawing all this attention onto himself, he makes himself look innocent, and on the off chance we do think he's acting sketchy, investigating him for last night's murder would turn up negative.

Plausible? Yes? No? Nicole, you're crazy?


At the risk of confirmation bias, this thought had crossed my mind. I didn't mention it out of fear of being accused of "OMGUS" (oh my god you're stupid, then immediately voting for the person who voted for you).


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 1:00 pm 
I'm not sure where I was at exactly 12:01. It was either watching board games on BMF or celebrating Russian New Year on Bonfire. Desk worker can confirm that I never left Random.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 1:01 pm 
Well, imagine two mafia hanging out with each other chit-chatting. They find out Joebob is going to the store, and one of them offers to go along (because they need something at the store). The other mafia offers to go along to create the illusion of security (three people, if one is mafia then they won't kill with two other players around).

Then they gank Joebob when he's in the checkout and can't leave without creating a scene.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 1:04 pm 
jayarsea wrote:
Well, imagine two mafia hanging out with each other chit-chatting. They find out Joebob is going to the store, and one of them offers to go along (because they need something at the store). The other mafia offers to go along to create the illusion of security (three people, if one is mafia then they won't kill with two other players around).
Then they gank Joebob when he's in the checkout and can't leave without creating a scene.

This actually makes a lot of sense. For one, Mats, why were you heading out of Random with Dgrazian - just you two - so close to midnight? I know you mentioned that you fled right away (and perhaps you two have some network of trust I am unaware of), but I would think that for the sake of cautious playing you might have asked someone to go along.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 1:05 pm 
I don't believe mats said he went with dgrazien, only that he saw him there...but I'll post again if I'm wrong.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 2:14 pm 

seriously everyone is buying this???????

quote jrc, i'm interested in mats_a's sudden interest in this game too.
kidding me????
daniel as mafia suicide???
omg, mats, you are taking this game to a whole new level. =.=
nicole, looking at your response, and you going-alongness w/ mats, i would so totally think you are mafia by now, if i haven't seen you playing regular table mafia yesterday and voting Di to be lynched in like freaking round 3, when alex and jrc were obviously mafia from the beginning. i guess you are just guillible by mafia's arguments. i'll let you go today.

but serioulsy everyone, i dun even wanna bother re-stress how ridiculous mats arguments are =.=. and mats, thank you for jumping out and confirming my suspicion for you thus far.


yours truely,

Ms. Investigator


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 2:16 pm 
oh ok, sorry nicole, after seeing your latest post, i retract what i said about you lol

yes, the 3 mafia scene makes sense.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 2:16 pm 
actually, reading your post again, i'm very sorry nicole lol what u say is very plausible, oops


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 2:17 pm 
Trying to keep discussion on one page...
I trust JJ's judgement, and have also been finding Mats's activity lately rather suspicious. The fact that you've spent so much time considering the chance of a mafia suicide (seriously, does ANYONE actually think this is a rational option for a rationable mafia...) I am tossing in my vote for Mats.

And please, people, no random lynching :( Let's discuss rationally before sending potentially innocent people to their death. We may have more numbers now, but I can bet that after our successful lynching of fluffy they will probably set up their game to compensate.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 2:21 pm 
VivianLee wrote:
We may have more numbers now, but I can bet that after our successful lynching of fluffy they will probably set up their game to compensate.

And by "they" I meant "the mafia"
Man, this week has just flat out shot my brain.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 2:22 pm 
VivianLee wrote:
We may have more numbers now, but I can bet that after our successful lynching of fluffy they will probably set up their game to compensate.

Let me just rewrite this sentence since I cannot English correctly:
"We may have more numbers now, but I can bet that after our successful lynching of fluffy, the mafia will probably up their game to compensate."


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 2:27 pm 
exactly. Serious, NO RANDOM LYNCHING ok????????


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 2:33 pm 
JingJian-JJ wrote:
exactly. Serious, NO RANDOM LYNCHING ok????????


See now I was looking forward to using the Alex RandomPlayerGenerator.

We would have Alex hold out his hand, blindfold him, and spin him around in a circle while every player was sitting down. When Alex passes out the person his hand points to gets lynched.

Please ignore this post. Pleeeeeease.

Yea...Mats, got something to say for yourself?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 4:04 pm 
*ghostly laughter is heard echoing through the halls of Random at the mental imagery of JRC's random lynch mechanic suggestion*


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 4:17 pm 
Random lynch would be stupid. I guess we can't be sure that mats is mafia, but at this point, lynching him would be a lot better than lynching a random townsperson. Unless new information comes out in the next seven hours, I will be voting for mats.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 4:22 pm 
Kate O'Connor wrote:
Random lynch would be stupid. I guess we can't be sure that mats is mafia, but at this point, lynching him would be a lot better than lynching a random townsperson. Unless new information comes out in the next seven hours, I will be voting for mats.


Where were you last night after table mafia?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 4:39 pm 
I went to Bonfire (the fourth floor, if you're unfamiliar with Random's naming system) to celebrate Russian New Year, along with JB. After the game broke up, I wandered into BMF a few times to see what was going on. I'm not sure which of these places I was in at exactly 12:01, but it was definitely inside the dorm.


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