Live Action Mafia

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Forum locked This topic is locked, you cannot edit posts or make further replies.  [ 9 posts ] 

Should a randomized lynch OPTION be instituted?
Poll ended at Sat Jan 15, 2011 7:35 am
Yes, but after tonight's lynching 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Yes, right away 44%  44%  [ 4 ]
No 56%  56%  [ 5 ]
Total votes : 9
Author Message
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 7:35 am 
I think it is in the townsfolk's best interest to perform a randomized lynch so that inactive players do not sneak under the radar. This is probably more effective if there are many mafia. Should a randomized lynch OPTION be instituted? -- disregard whether it can be sanely implemented

I have also provided a "yes but after tonight's lynching" option in case you want to lynch me, or feel my motives are suspect.

ugh, after failing to make two polls I am so voting to lynch phpbb


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 9:09 am 
I like to think that a random lynch is only acceptable if we have absolutely nothing to go on.

As is, we do.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 10:42 am 
jayarsea wrote:
I like to think that a random lynch is only acceptable if we have absolutely nothing to go on.

As is, we do.


I suspect you more and more, especially given your hostility after I accused you of being mafia (albeit hastily, I'm sorry), and given that I even provided an option in this poll for those super-suspicious of me. But, putting that aside for a moment, from a purely theoretical standpoint, I will employ logic:

If people do not use a random lynch strategy on some level, but rather only vote on people presented to them, then there exist a very powerful strategy for mafia: they just wait until someone randomly points someone out, or someone with a suicidal bent implicates themselves, and then select a random subset of themselves to swing votes slightly in favor of non-mafia.

The only reason people don't slip under the radar in regular mafia is because people are there in person and point out "hey that guy with the earphones on is probably mafia". But here in online forum-based mafia, unless you are looking at the player list 24-7, that isn't going to happen.

I mean, sure, people shouldn't randomly lynch if they have something to go on. But in the face of weak evidence like this (you wouldn't vote to lynch someone on a single person's testimony, would you?) unless there is an alternative, you're basically seeing ghosts in the dark while the mafia twiddle their thumbs. Sort of like if you take a thousand tests for rare diseases, some of them will come up as false positives.

In my humble opinion, if you are a townsfolk, the hierarchy of strategies is like so:
* [lynching on strong evidence]
* [random lynch]
* [lynch on weak undoctored evidence]
* [no vote]
* [lynch on weak mafia-doctored evidence or no alternatives]

In the absence of strong evidence, whether you perform a random lynch should be determined by how doctored or shifty the evidence is. The suspected ratio of mafia may also play a role in your strategies. Also see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma

clarification: a "random lynch" is defined as follows: everyone who votes for "random lynch" will vote as a uniform block for the same random person


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 10:51 am 
So, assuming we went with this plan, how do we determine who the random person to be lynched is? Someone has to suggest a person, right? (Though they can claim to use a random # generator, ppl not there in person would have to proof of that)... how do we know that the person choosing the "random person" isn't mafia?


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 11:04 am 
I think it's fair to let Alex randomly select. He'd be kludgite trustworthy not to cheat.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 11:34 am 
Of course I was going to be hostile. You said Dgrazien was mafia and suicided and then said that that implicated me as mafia.

I was all "???" and then you go back and retract it like it's no thing.

You were inactive for several days and then BAM! dgrazien dies and now you've suddenly perked up. What changed?


* [lynching on strong evidence]
* [random lynch]
* [lynch on weak undoctored evidence]
* [no vote]
* [lynch on weak mafia-doctored evidence or no alternatives]

While that's a thought, how do you decide what has been doctored and whether or not it is strong evidence, pre-lynch? You can't. You've got to go with your gut.

The problem with bizzaro-world lynching is that you ruin voting record evidence. You won't ever catch things like a 6-5 vote supported by 3 fake IDs if you want everyone to play the bandwagon game.

If we're going to play roulettelynch, I'll run a computer simulation and we can just sit in our rooms and stop discussing.

I don't see how roulettelynch punishes inactive players. They're unlikely to be selected (unless you believe most players are inactive); instead you'll hit active players with probability (active/total).


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 10:22 pm 

TOMORROW, people can use this script I have created at http://scripts.mit.edu/~mats_a/daily-ra ... service.py (assuming Alex is unwilling to perform a trusted randomization, are you Alex? -- if so, that would be superior)
Do not use this script tonight.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 10:23 pm 
NOPE, not tomorrow either.
details i'll explain at 11;59 tonight


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 10:31 pm 
I'm not willing to randomize. If you want to, do it yourself.


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