Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 1:35 pm 
Brian Iglesias wrote:
The question as to whether to lynch Vivian or JY is now which one I trust more. Problem is, I don't really know either one of you at all. With regards to JB, though: like I've said before, Kate was the conscription, so if JB is mafia he's been mafia since the start of the game.

The JJ/JY ploy, if true, is reasonable - if JJ was really the investigator and JY was really mafia, JJ'd be dead anyway, and vice-versa. However, if JY is lying, we no longer have any investigators in play. The paranoia in me says we should lynch both of you and JB as well, just to make sure, but I'm pretty sure there's got to be a better way to go about it than that. As such, I'll wait until evening to vote for anyone.


This, exactly. Couldn't have said it better myself.

We now have three plausible possibilities here:

1. Vivian mafia, JY investigator, Di townsperson - JY and Di are telling the truth, Vivian is lying, her photo from the Pru was part of some elaborate plan to set me up for Jason's murder :-(

2. Vivian townsperson, JY mafia, Di mafia - JY is taking advantage of the fact that our last investigator is dead (there seems to be a general consensus that Kate was the other one, right?), Di is backing her up because she's mafia too... this is like, the first thing Di's said all game, right?

3. Vivian townsperson, JY mafia, Di townsperson - again, JY taking advantage of the fact that our last investigator is dead - Di is being gullible. I don't think this one is that likely, but you never know - Di, no offense, seemed pretty confused during table mafia.

Thoughts?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 1:38 pm 
Di, I just find it really strange that you didn't speak up until now (and only to 1) defend your absence and 2) support JY) I'm sure many of us have just as packed schedules but we have been able to at least say something on the forum. Aside from Day 2, in which you defended your voting of Daniel on Day 1, you haven't said anything until now. (Oh, you did say in Day 3 that "Im voting for Vinotch. Because everybody is voting for him here....") All you've said in your post is that JJ trusted you, which just makes me more suspicious that you had the potential to go inside the room for JJ's kill.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 1:38 pm 
I ACTUALLY know that JY is the investigator. No doubt about it.
We should lynch Vivian tonight, so that JY is lessly possible to get killed since she doesn't have a medikit


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 1:44 pm 
Oh, didn't see Nicole's post. She basically summed it up nicely. JY HAS to be mafia because she gave a false investigation of me, I know this FOR SURE.

Di could either be part of JY's scheme from the start or is being tricked. In fact, you admitted yourself to being an inactive player and trusting whoever JJ/JY told you to vote for... so that either means you don't really care who dies so long as it's not a fellow mafia, or you're just being sold out by JY. Why is it that you, one of the most inactive players in the game, were the only person JY confided in? Maybe because she knew you didn't have time to think it through and would just go with her plans?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 1:45 pm 
Di wrote:
I ACTUALLY know that JY is the investigator. No doubt about it.
We should lynch Vivian tonight, so that JY is lessly possible to get killed since she doesn't have a medikit


Not doubting you, Di, but putting something in bold does not make it more convincing. How do you know? When did she tell you? Did JJ confirm it? Who else knows?

Only tangentially related, but do we have any idea what happened to the medkit?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 1:46 pm 
@Vivian

.......I don't know what to say. I know u r the mafia. Just keep struggling I guess.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 1:46 pm 
Di wrote:
I ACTUALLY know that JY is the investigator. No doubt about it.
We should lynch Vivian tonight, so that JY is lessly possible to get killed since she doesn't have a medikit


Glad you clarified.

CHANGE OF PLANS

We lynch Vivian tonight and Di tomorrow.

Why change from Vivian today JY tomorrow? Because Di has aligned herself with JY. So, Di and JY should have the same affiliation.

Previously, lynching JY and Vivian gets us one mafia. Now, lynching Di and Vivian gets us one mafia, but in the event that Vivian is mafia, we would still have our investigator alive (Di).

So, lynch Vivian today and Di tomorrow.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 1:47 pm 
Nicole wrote:
Di wrote:
I ACTUALLY know that JY is the investigator. No doubt about it.
We should lynch Vivian tonight, so that JY is lessly possible to get killed since she doesn't have a medikit


Not doubting you, Di, but putting something in bold does not make it more convincing. How do you know? When did she tell you? Did JJ confirm it? Who else knows?

Only tangentially related, but do we have any idea what happened to the medkit?


JJ told me and I confirmed at JY.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 1:48 pm 
jayarsea wrote:
CHANGE OF PLANS
We lynch Vivian tonight and Di tomorrow.
...
Why change from Vivian today JY tomorrow?
...
So, lynch Vivian today and Di tomorrow.

I think you've gotten a few people mixed up in your post ^^;


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 1:52 pm 
jayarsea wrote:
Di wrote:
I ACTUALLY know that JY is the investigator. No doubt about it.
We should lynch Vivian tonight, so that JY is lessly possible to get killed since she doesn't have a medikit


Glad you clarified.

CHANGE OF PLANS

We lynch Vivian tonight and Di tomorrow.

Why change from Vivian today JY tomorrow? Because Di has aligned herself with JY. So, Di and JY should have the same affiliation.

Previously, lynching JY and Vivian gets us one mafia. Now, lynching Di and Vivian gets us one mafia, but in the event that Vivian is mafia, we would still have our investigator alive (Di).

So, lynch Vivian today and Di tomorrow.




Im so surprised at your conclusion......and that's y i don't wanna talk too much and get myself tangled into the complicated situation. I still don't get your logic. Vivian is obviously the mafia giving the time JJ is killed right after Vivian is likely to get investigated. Plus JY confirmed it. And if me or JY are mafias JJ could have died long time ago....


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 1:52 pm 
VivianLee wrote:
jayarsea wrote:
CHANGE OF PLANS
We lynch Vivian tonight and Di tomorrow.
...
Why change from Vivian today JY tomorrow?
...
So, lynch Vivian today and Di tomorrow.

I think you've gotten a few people mixed up in your post ^^;

How's that? I'm confused.

Di is supporting JY's claim. They're both of the same affiliation.

We lynch one of them + you = 1 mafia.

We have leftover either a live investigator or a mafia masquerading as one. Either way, we traded one for one.

If JY (and Di) are mafia, then eventually JY will have to make a report that contradicts someone (she'll have to accuse someone). Then, we lynch that her guilty and JY.

Puts us down to 5-fluffy-kate-(vivian/di)-(jy if she is mafia/her guilty report)-(one of the other people we lynched earlier)


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 1:54 pm 
No, she wrote it correctly. We were previously going to lynch you tonight and lynch JY tomorrow night, but now we're going to lynch you tonight and Di tomorrow night. I would say we should still lynch JY if Di attempts a suicide kill like Fluffy and Kate did.

On that note, presently the only person I trust completely is myself, maybe Ami as well. I'm not that suspicious of JB, but if he's going to get impeached, might as well hire a new mayor. As such, I would like to nominate myself for the new mayor.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 1:54 pm 
Di wrote:
jayarsea wrote:
Di wrote:
I ACTUALLY know that JY is the investigator. No doubt about it.
We should lynch Vivian tonight, so that JY is lessly possible to get killed since she doesn't have a medikit


Glad you clarified.

CHANGE OF PLANS

We lynch Vivian tonight and Di tomorrow.

Why change from Vivian today JY tomorrow? Because Di has aligned herself with JY. So, Di and JY should have the same affiliation.

Previously, lynching JY and Vivian gets us one mafia. Now, lynching Di and Vivian gets us one mafia, but in the event that Vivian is mafia, we would still have our investigator alive (Di).

So, lynch Vivian today and Di tomorrow.




Im so surprised at your conclusion......and that's y i don't wanna talk too much and get myself tangled into the complicated situation. I still don't get your logic. Vivian is obviously the mafia giving the time JJ is killed right after Vivian is likely to get investigated. Plus JY confirmed it. And if me or JY are mafias JJ could have died long time ago....


I do mostly believe you, but from my point of view you could both be mafia (JY and you)...so I hedge against it by lynching Vivian and you.

If you are innocent and so is JY, then coming out in support of JY is the best innocent play because it means we won't lynch her too.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 1:55 pm 
Quote:
JY, half the stuff you said is utter BULLSHIT and you know it. You and JJ have been attached at the hip since day one or something, but we haven't heard you say much on the forums until now. You know just as much as I do that silent people get lynched (hello, last IAP, and every game inbetween besides?!), so if you were the real investigator you would have at least said something of substance every day to keep yourself safe for everyone's sake. You only posted on day 2, to bandwagon with JJ to lynch fluffy, and on day 5 to suggest table mafia (see bottom of post for more detailed quotes).

Yes, I do know from last IAP's mafia game that silent people get lynched; however, if you guys remember correctly, JJ stated clearly that she really trusted me and since all of you guys trust her as the investigator, you guys also trust me since I'm sure JJ would back me up if anyone suspects me. Counting on your guys' trust on JJ, I stayed quiet, so that mafias will never consider killing me (since JJ never got the medkit, so she was unable to give it to me, so we thought it's best for me to stay quiet and let JJ be the active one in the game, so this way, to the mafias JJ obviously holds more threat and i'm just some innocent townsperson not really involved in the game (or so the mafias think :P)
And on day 2, I eagerly voted for fluffy because he came out as positive during my investigation, then i immediately told jj, who was there with me and since i trusted her, i told her i was the investigator and told her to come out for me. She agreed and told di and joy to vote for fluffy quickly. joy and di can both vouch for this. We were all there that night on 5E lounge.

ALSO, the thing about signing the petition.
vivian is TOTALLY LYING!!
i definitely, 100% signed the petition, TWICE actually. once was at next house, that night when i found out fluffy was the mafia. we started signing the petition. joy and di can vouch for me. i signed the peition.
then the next day, we went to random, but jj didn't bring the peition, so we made a new one, and i signed it AGAIN. whoever was at random playing table mafia with me can vouch for me. My name was like the 2nd on the peition, right after JJ's.
also, why i suggested going to random to play table mafia is because to make an investigation, i have to go to the crime scene, and of course it's gonna be so obvious is i just show up at random randomly. the mafias at random are gonna know that i'm the real investigator. therefore, usign the mafia game as the cover, jj and i went to random, visited the crime scene and then i was able to make investigations.


kk i have to go to my python class now, but I will post more to explain everything and all the questions you guys raised.
but for now, PLEASE TRUST ME. I am deifnitely the real investigator.
if i was the mafia, jj would have deifnitely found out. she knows me so well that i jsut can not lie in front of her.
please vote to lynch VIVIAN tonight.

gotta run to class now. will post more later.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 1:57 pm 
Keep in mind y'all that Vivian has the petition, not me.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 2:03 pm 
I say we lynch all of them, just to be safe.

JY - can you give us a history of your investigations? For starters, who did you inspect yesterday?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 2:03 pm 
Di wrote:
JJ told me and I confirmed at JY.

Di, this says NOTHING, you're just repeating what JY told us yesterday: the fact that she is "covering" for JJ.

Quote:
She agreed and told di and joy to vote for fluffy quickly. joy and di can both vouch for this.

Why is it then that Joy posted earlier today saying that she didn't know you were covering for JJ? Now that JJ's dead you can say anything you want and no one would be able to verify anything.

@JRC:

Currently we have Vivian vs. JY/Di.

If Vivian is telling the truth, and you lynch her, you get two mafia (or one mafia and one townsperson that's blindly believing).
If Vivian is telling the truth and you lynch one of JY/Di, you're left with only one choice of mafia (or one townsperson who is in the mafia's back pocket)
If Vivian is not telling the truth and you lynch her, you're down one mafia.
If Vivian is not telling the truth and you lynch one of JY/Di, then you're left with one mafia

In numerical terms, your payoffs are (worst-case, assuming Di/JY are of same faction and Di's not just being gullible), in form of [-mafia+innocent]:
V truth V lynch --> -2+0 = -2
V truth JY/Di lynch --> -1+2 = +1
V !truth V lynch --> -1+2 = +1
V !truth JY/Di lynch --> -1+1 = 0

V lynch first nets -1
JY/Di lynch first nets 1

Hello, you have 2 on one side and 1 on the other. If both have opportunities to be correct, you take down the side with more numbers in case of disaster.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 2:04 pm 
Addendum:
Quote:
If Vivian is telling the truth and you lynch one of JY/Di, you're left with only one choice of mafia (or one townsperson who is in the mafia's back pocket)

And arguably, that one townsperson is going to eventually come back to our side when they know we've lynched the actual mafia, so there is a chance of getting 0+3 in this case instead of -1+2.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 2:10 pm 
I don't believe we should lynch both di and Jy, but I would be willing to consider it.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 2:11 pm 
jy wrote:
ALSO, the thing about signing the petition.
vivian is TOTALLY LYING!!
i definitely, 100% signed the petition, TWICE actually. once was at next house, that night when i found out fluffy was the mafia. we started signing the petition. joy and di can vouch for me. i signed the peition.
then the next day, we went to random, but jj didn't bring the peition, so we made a new one, and i signed it AGAIN.

The paper that JJ gave me only had two names. I was the third. She mentioned she had another sheet with JRC's name on it (by the way, petitions have to be on one sheet of paper, just checked the rules). Maybe you signed the other sheet, and JJ didn't know you had to have the petitions on one sheet, in which case I could be wrong about you never having signed -anything-, but that sheet of paper that I saw last night (notebook paper with blue pen) definitely did not have your name on it.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 2:12 pm 
Ahhh, too much math. This kind of reminds me of Alex trying to math us into keeping him alive (when he was actually mafia) during table mafia the other day.

But then again, we've yet to see any actual proof from JY and Di that JY is the inspector. I want an investigation history, or story of how JY convinced Di she wasn't lying ("JY and JJ said so" - come on, really?), *anything.* Right now all we have is their word.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 2:18 pm 
jayarsea wrote:
I don't believe we should lynch both di and Jy, but I would be willing to consider it.

(btw, my "calculations" above were done with just a lynch of Di OR JY)

If you believe they are on the same faction, then we should definitely lynch one of them first to be safe and get the other one later. In fact, the other one would then be without anyone to support her bogus claims (or in the case if we left Di behind, she doesn't have any better to say than, "JY and JJ trusted me, so that must make me not mafia"). I will swear up and down and sideways (in less colourful terms than earlier) that JY is lying, so I know eventually we need to lynch her. You can choose to lynch Di tonight if that quells your doubts about me, but I promise that should I remain living I will do absolutely everything you need me to do to find out who the remaining mafia are left - I will be in your back pocket the entire rest of the game and you have this here in writing.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 2:21 pm 
Vivian, are you familiar with the works of Shan Yu?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 2:21 pm 
Makes more sense to me to first lynch JY and then Di, given my scenario #3 from above. It's possible that JY is mafia and Di is a townsperson, but the opposite is very unlikely.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 2:22 pm 
Nicole wrote:
Makes more sense to me to first lynch JY and then Di, given my scenario #3 from above. It's possible that JY is mafia and Di is a townsperson, but the opposite is very unlikely.


Actually, I take that back. Scenario #4: JY really is the investigator, Di is mafia but allying herself with the real investigator because she's super-sneaky and we would never suspect it?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 2:31 pm 
Nicole wrote:
Ahhh, too much math. This kind of reminds me of Alex trying to math us into keeping him alive (when he was actually mafia) during table mafia the other day.


Nicole, you're reading my mind here...

We're lynching Vivian today and we'll see what we do tomorrow. I will have more to say on the matter later.

I also would like to tentatively endorse Mr. Survivor's bid to be a replacement mayor.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 2:37 pm 
Okay look, this can be done without "complicated" math.

You have assumed JY/Di are of the same faction, opposing me.
Your worst case is 2 mafia vs. 1 innocent.
Your best case is 2 innocents vs. 1 mafia.

You wish to prevent the WORST CASE, obviously. Lynch either JY or Di tonight (you know who I would suggest), and then if you must, lynch me tomorrow. Eventually you will be left with someone who is either a single mafia or a single innocent, but right now JY is the biggest threat due to the fact that she must ABSOLUTELY be mafia by accusing me falsely. Lynch JY, kill me the day after if you're still not convinced, and then see what Di does.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 2:41 pm 
jayarsea wrote:
VivianLee wrote:
jayarsea wrote:
CHANGE OF PLANS
We lynch Vivian tonight and Di tomorrow.
...
Why change from Vivian today JY tomorrow?
...
So, lynch Vivian today and Di tomorrow.

I think you've gotten a few people mixed up in your post ^^;

How's that? I'm confused.

Sorry about that, I can't English. I thought you wrote "Why change to Vivian today JY tomorrow?" I stand corrected; it makes sense.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 2:42 pm 
VivianLee wrote:
Okay look, this can be done without "complicated" math.

You have assumed JY/Di are of the same faction, opposing me.
Your worst case is 2 mafia vs. 1 innocent.
Your best case is 2 innocents vs. 1 mafia.

You wish to prevent the WORST CASE, obviously. Lynch either JY or Di tonight (you know who I would suggest), and then if you must, lynch me tomorrow. Eventually you will be left with someone who is either a single mafia or a single innocent, but right now JY is the biggest threat due to the fact that she must ABSOLUTELY be mafia by accusing me falsely. Lynch JY, kill me the day after if you're still not convinced, and then see what Di does.


Actually, I don't really want to prevent the worst case. I've assigned a sufficiently low probability to it that I do not believe it is likely. Maximin kinda sucks. Besides, order doesn't matter if we follow through. Furthermore, I'd rather not lynch one of JY/Di, have you kill the other shortly after night, and then lynch you.

Order don't matter so long as we followthrough.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 2:48 pm 
jayarsea wrote:
Actually, I don't really want to prevent the worst case. I've assigned a sufficiently low probability to it that I do not believe it is likely. Maximin kinda sucks. Besides, order doesn't matter if we follow through. Furthermore, I'd rather not lynch one of JY/Di, have you kill the other shortly after night, and then lynch you.
Order don't matter so long as we followthrough.


(For pete's sakes, if you want, send someone to watch me to make sure I don't make a kill if that makes you feel better.)

The only reason I have an issue with this is that if I am lynched, then JY/Di basically have a formed bond and can say whatever they want about anyone, provided you actually believe she's the investigator, AND it gives one of them as mafia the chance to make another kill (most likely Di, since if JY counterclaimed she wouldn't). If I end up dying and you do not follow through with lynching one of them I will be very pissed.

If we're citing that occasion of Random table mafia, did you not also say that Alex's counterclaim as investigator eventually led you guys (as mafia) to win the game? You should know that it's possible to be done and done well.


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