Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:31 pm 
Lily chen strongly looks like a rogue. Here's my:

She claimed rogue in confidence to Lane, soon after kills 1 and 2 happened.

She claimed investigator to Miranda Gavrin, and now claims to have been a fake investigator.

She claimed Gay Knight to save jakob from being lynched tonight, and he is quite likely to be mafia.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:34 pm 
Miranda says Lily originally said she was faking investigator, so your second point is void


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:36 pm 
and isn't the first technique commonly used to bait out mafia/rogue/serial killers?


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:40 pm 
isaacg wrote:
Lily chen strongly looks like a rogue. Here's my:

She claimed rogue in confidence to Lane, soon after kills 1 and 2 happened.

This was me hedging my bets. It's par for the course for townies to fake claim rogue to revealed mafia. From my perspective, assuming I believed Jakob, which is reasonable given that he's my gay knight partner, then Lane was definitely mafia.


Quote:
She claimed investigator to Miranda Gavrin, and now claims to have been a fake investigator.

This was part of a ploy to bait the mafia into trapping me as investigator. This combined with me announcing my intention to run for PO was meant to And the fake investigations I gave her were true from my perspective as explain in the other thread.

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She claimed Gay Knight to save jakob from being lynched tonight, and he is quite likely to be mafia.

He's going to get executed, I'm resigning myself to this fact. I just want him to get executed not-tonight, since I would die a day sooner if he did.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:58 pm 
EXECUTE JAKOB FIRST. Lane has revealed to everyone as innocent child. Jakob and Lily Chen, the two sketchiest people in game, have only each other vouching for them. If Lily dies tomorrow, that's one more dead townie who would have been on the mafia's priority list anyway. We should be lynching:

1. Jakob
2. Lane
3. Lily
4. Amanda

and someone should be investigating Amanda for Lilly to confirm that last one.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:00 pm 
To clarify: if we lynch Jakob tonight and Lane tomorrow, Lily should die at the end of tomorrow if she's telling the truth. If not, she's the next lynch.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:05 pm 
If Lily was rogue, these would be some pretty amateur moves. I'm actually reasonably convinced that Lily's innocent, because it seems like a waste to throw away a mafia member to let another member live an extra day.

However, that does little to nothing to convince me that Jakob is innocent. It seems pretty clear to me that one of them (Lane/Jakob) was conscripted.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:39 pm 
Ethan wrote:
EXECUTE JAKOB FIRST. Lane has revealed to everyone as innocent child. Jakob and Lily Chen, the two sketchiest people in game, have only each other vouching for them.

If I was Mafia or Serial killer it would make NO SENSE for me to sacrifice myself for Jakob.

The "bait mafia by pretending to be investigator" plot was started yesterday, as Miranda can confirm, before the whole Jakob/Lane thing happened. It would have made no sense for me to pretend to be investigator, and then subsequently own up to it, unless I was actually a gay knight who knew that my fake investigations would do no harm. If I was Mafia pretending to be investigator, why would I own up to it now? And it would have taken an incredible amount of coordination and forethought for mafia me to pretend to be a gay knight pretending to be an investigator, just to save Jakob.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:48 pm 
At the end of this, Lane, Jakob, and I all have to die. If you accept that I'm actually a gay knight (hopefully my reasoning for why it would make no sense for me to be mafia is convincing enough), then this set of people contains exactly 2 innocents and 1 conscripted mafia.

If we execute Lane first, I would get an extra day to live. If we execute Jakob first, the same outcome happens (in terms of people dying) except that an innocent person dies a day earlier than they would otherwise. All else being equal (which it would be if we tasered whichever one of them we don't execute tonight), it would be preferable to give me an extra day to live.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:10 pm 
No, it's definitely not convincing enough. In fact, I'm now even more sure Lily is a rogue. Maybe this is all an incredibly convoluted scheme to make the mafia waste a trap, but not giving her more opportunities if she's a rogue far outweighs having one more townie alive for one day if she's not.

As I said: Lane has provided evidence of his innocence (+-conscription) that does not depend on him dying. Jakob and Lily have provided evidence of their innocence (+-conscription) that does depend on them dying. The only way to figure out if they're legit is to kill one of them, and the sooner the better.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:43 pm 
When does a townie need an extra day of life this bad? When they're a rogue who can kill tomorrow.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:44 pm 
Miranda Gavrin wrote:
When does a townie need an extra day of life this bad? When they're a rogue who can kill tomorrow.

If I get an extra day, I can do useful things for town. Otherwise, I'm dead weight. I'd rather be useful than useless.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:45 pm 
Just wondering.. If we think Lily is a serial killer, who do we think she killed in the first 3 days?


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:46 pm 
I don't think Lily is rogue. I believe she is a gay knight with partner = conscripted jakob.

And I think we should execute jakob.


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