Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:44 pm 
In this game so far there have been several instances of important claims where the only evidence has lain with one or two people. In such cases, we should keep clear on who the claims depend on. And essentially, if they get mafia-killed (unless they're the SK), that virtually proves the claim.

Here are a few important examples:

Conscription has been used by 7:46pm day 2 - Josh Frisch (mafia counting) - proven

lukesci was in random when he died - ltchin - not proven

The former allows us to pretty well bound the number of likely conscriptor-conscriptee pairs, based on known encounters and interactions up to that point. Feel free to speculate on this; I've thought about the possibilities a bit, but not enough to reach any significant (public-safe) conclusions. The latter matters a lot for the size and nature of the suspect set in that case.

More to say about the latter: either ltchin is lying, in which case she's mafia, or she's telling the truth, in which case most likely someone then at random (or who could have plausibly sneaked into random [pecker? not necessarily] unnoticed) is mafia. Since ltchin belongs to the set in the latter case, we can say with high confidence that said set contains a mafia, with the distribution somewhat weighted towards ltchin. Either way, given the investigations so far, the kill was very likely don or mtp, or a very very sneaky person who escaped notice. (Well, if there are any investigations left on this, someone should consider investigating kmath and maybe even lgunder just in case, though perhaps there are more important things to investigate.)

On a pretty much unrelated note, Miles still has not posted alibis. I'll try to poke him in person when finding him for petition signing, but please don't let people keep doing this :P

Also keep in mind that yellow alibis are not necessarily better than orange ones if there were no players close enough to either the alibier or the death scene to verify their legitimacy.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:26 pm 
Quote:
either ltchin is lying, in which case she's mafia, or she's telling the truth, in which case most likely someone then at random (or who could have plausibly sneaked into random [pecker? not necessarily] unnoticed) is mafia.

Or ltchin could just be mistaken about timing.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:29 pm 
That's possible, but she's been pretty insistent that Luke was there around the right time. I guess you're saying he could've left and then been killed soon after leaving?


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:39 pm 
I do agree it's really weird for lukesci to have been in Random at the time, especially considering we know that his movements were bounded by Tech Squares and the Saferide. However, given this, I'm very confident that I saw him in Random Hall in that timespan.

I guess it could be possible that he came to Random for a short amount of time, left through Destiny, got killed outside Random and then was MTP'ed to be on Pecker? But then, what was he doing in Random?


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