Live Action Mafia

Kmath revealed to Josh as innocent child (also, I refuse to believe it is a coincidence that kmath and I are the only two innocent children in game). Josh is now telling Sammy this and trying to set up a meeting for kmath to reveal to Sammy as well. Josh is also using Sammy as a proxy for his investigations. I think that Josh is overestimating the chances that kmath is conscripted, but I also think it's reasonable to trust Sammy more than her and reveal more sensitive info to Sammy instead, which is what he is doing.

Asya's "about me" post is the best. Poor Asya, I know she hates being mafia.

Also, losing a mafia on day 1 in a game this size is a REALLY harsh blow to mafia. Mafia also are a bit sad in terms of how role distribution turned out, because there rogue is nearly a new player, one of the mafia is low-activity, and the person they're banking on having lynched is the sole innocent child in game.

It was totally reasonable of Asya to come over to me to shout "WHY HAVE THE GODS DONE THIS TO ME?!" while shaking my shoulders.

So yay for Luke for making a kill! Unfortunately he looked kind of sketchy in the process. Arkadiy apparently saw him wandering around Random 3 times before he was ultimately killed, and also saw him waiting outside Random, but his phone was charging, so he didn't text anyone. Ltchin also saw him and was particularly suspicious, and kmath thinks it's weird that he is at Random. IMO, mafia should really be making a kill today in order to take some pressure off of their rogue. Rogue is a tough role in general, and its especially tough for new players.

Also, yay for Sammy for activating his medkit! This is the right time to do it, even though I don't think it will end up being useful. I expect he'll activate as desperado afterwards.

Also, kmath says to say hello to all the spoopy ghosts.

My guess is that Luke will almost certainly end up lynched tonight unless mafia make another kill to distract investigators. Between Josh's two investigations and Lily's one investigation, Luke will probably end up as a target. If mafia just used the "kill the mayor" strategy again, Luke might escape.

Wow, GG. Josh just investigated Luke and got a positive.

Correction:

Mafia do have a LOT of powers though, which they haven't been using at all. In contrast with other games this size, they have don (which I hadn't even remembered was in game when talking about balance). Their poisons take two days, but they have two of them. If mafia poison two people, make a don kill, make a hitman / mtp kill, makes another hitman / mtp kill, and make a don kill, they will have killed six people in four days with only three in-person kills, one mic-vulnerable death, and no death being investigable. If they use them on say, Sammy, Josh, Dgrazian, Lily, kmath (once its apparent she's not getting lynched), and Lucy they will have taken out like 90% of people townies saying things on forums. If they manage to avoid getting lynched from general suspiciousness during that time (maybe using a frame and a strategic hitman), they would have won the game (6 kills, 4 lynches, 1 heartbreak would leave 3 townies alive versus 2 mafia).

There are a few potential snags (Sammy will be invulnerable, gay knight investigations are still useful, mayoral investigations still work on mtp, poisoned people can control a lot of discourse), but basically if mafia makes decent (defined as the killer isn't the first or second person suspected) kills and don't end up randomly lynched, they still win. Making decent kills and not acting sketchy is still hard, but this game isn't over by a long shot. Asya can definitely pull this off, but I think she might be a bit demoralized with how game started out for mafia...

Hmm, I think Asya's plan (kill Luke and pretend to be vigilante in the future) is good. I think she should set-a-trap him though, in case mafia ends up wanting to make another kill today. I'm not sure whether it's better to have two or three kills today, in terms of vigilante believability in the future. They should also probably plant evidence on Luke, although I'm not sure whether it's better to make him look like a framed innocent or to make it look like he's mafia.

Updates from having players talk at me:
- Josh and kmath are going to claim gay knights. Sammy knows about this, so if something happens Josh can be found to not be a gay knight.
- Sammy was thinking about getting Arkadiy's medkit too, but Arkadiy died, so he just went with ajliu's medkit and is going to activate his desperado-ness tonight.
- Sammy actually claimed to have an investigative role to both Arkadiy and ltchin at the beginning of day 0, so his double-proxying for Josh fit perfectly. Though he will need to get more proxies once he activates.
- Sammy is thinking of checking some of Josh's positive investigations
- Josh and Sammy passed off Josh's mayoral investigation as a regular one and vice versa, which Sammy now regrets.

Props to town for noting the weirdness of the kill on Luke. Presumably Luke secretly went to Random to meet with Asya, so the fact that he was there is unexpected. Still, I don't think town should expect that if Luke were a mafia kill, mafia would use up mtp on it.

Poor Asya though; she's so worried. It's perfectly common for town to double-proxy, and it's pretty difficult for town to track down a proxy chain if someone dies, because proxies rightly don't want to tell people who they're proxying for. It is probably better to claim to someone who isn't too town-scary (i.e. not Dgrazian or Sammyluo), but I also think claiming to someone she's about to kill is bad. Claiming to someone like Mads, who is unlikely to interact with other players in casual conversation, or put her in a position where she has to lie in person, is probably safest.

Also, fun plan: Asya becomes don, which, with the current rules, would leave her investigable for Luke, but not any future kills she makes while don. I think this is the right call for faking vigilante.

I also think mafia should have poisoned people today, specifically some of the hard-to-kill major players.

(Asya said in forums:) "Dang, it would have been nice if people had seen Luke on Pecker."
Oh dear, I was deliberately being super sneaky. Oh well...

Oh no, ltchin wants to vigilante kill jamb. Hopefully she remembers my general strategy advice of "vigilantes should DEFINITELY ask their target, 'Are you an innocent child or gay knight?' before killing them." At least Sammy is saying he wants to be there to witness the kill, so hopefully he will make sure the check happens. A tragic number of vigilante kills have been on gay knights and innocent children...

Vigilante plan averted. Jackie/Dgrazian revealed to Sammy (and possibly ltchin?) that they are gay knights. Sammy is slightly sad he couldn't get a clue count from a vigilante kill though, because that would confirm the death of the serial killer.

On a completely separate topic, kmath was very suspicious of Jackie for Luke's death, and had a whole complicated scenario for what Jackie would have done as mafia. It was quite entertaining. She then noted the weirdness of the path Luke took, and started wondering if ltchin lied about what happened.

Also, I think town is overestimating the weirdness of a vigilante not claiming they made the kill. Notably, the vigilante could have been:
1. Bad at checking forums initially, and then worried about getting lynched when people started thinking of all these mafia scenarios for the kill.
2. Untrusting of Dgrazian's (and it was pretty much all Dgrazian's) pushing for them to reveal, especially if they thought not revealing wouldn't hurt town (i.e. they think investigators would sooner investigate other kills, and that them role revealing isn't worth it).

IMO the sketchy thing isn't the lack of a claim, it's the fact that Luke being in Pecker was unusual (because he wouldn't have gone on his own, and was in fact meeting someone).

Sammy and Josh are doing a good job of making sure kmath doesn't get lynched without leaking any evidence that she has a provably innocent role. Also, quote from Sammy from yesterday: "Hopefully I can set up a trust network before I die." As it turns out, Sammy already knows everyone alive with a provably innocent role.

Not sure if he's set kmath and jamb/Dgrazian up or not, but I think at least kmath knows about the gay knights, because she un-voted for jamb around the time the prospect of vigilante-killing jamb was resolved.

Poor mafia. But good job for Miles for being thorough, rather than just asking someone if they were Mandy and then leaving when she said, "no."

Sammy is apparently introducing gay knights Dgrazian and Jamb to "gay knights" kmath and kmli. And kmli already knows about the other pair. No idea why he has decided to trust kmli so much. I guess maybe the fact that he's very unlikely to have been conscripted (never been mafia), and mafia is half conscript? Plus psychological stuff? Idk.

Also, Sammy is sad that no one is trying to kill him.

Lol at Sammy updating his schedule a bunch to give mafia the most detailed possible info on how to kill him.

In other news, Sammy has figured out by process of elimination that one of Lily, Dylan, or Asya is anon investigator (it's Lily). He isn't as sure about Dylan being a possibility, but he does think Dylan was collecting clues today (which is true).

Sammy currently knows the roles of himself, kmath, jamb, Dgrazian, ltchin, and 1/3 a Lily Chen, AKA 1/3 of game.

I knew kmli's role pretty confidently because he was being "silly" and gave it away, and had the right (counterintuitive) clue counts when I asked him.

Wow, I knew miles was checking forums too often. Should have specified this better. Hindsight bias gah.

I bcc'ed Ksedlar my info dump to the gns and kmli; hopefully they'll decide to trust kmath soonish. Should have paid more attention to asya, but I did consider her a pretty reasonable conscription choice.

GRRRR!!! I was right to investigate abergal for Josh
Hopefully someone (dgrazian? dylanhen?) investigates abergal for lukesci too. That would be good.

I was pretty good with my suspicion lists, I think, at least insofar as not exonerating any guilty people. Both guilty people are in bottom 5 trust ranking. Hopefully people can use the list well. It's bad I put abergal at the low end of the conscript-likely pile though... under jamb, I don't know why :/

I'm also confused why ajfike keeps investigating already-investigated things.

Also wow the one time I was ready to get "killed" people didn't kill me. Though I guess they were spamming KABOOMs so maybe it's good that they didn't kill me.

Oh yeah, here's my spreadsheet after my less than one day alive: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

I think mafia made a mistake by having Miles post an alibi so soon after the death. He hasn't been posting alibis much, so it's unusual behavior from him, plus, people are less comfortable investigating someone with no alibi vs a bad alibi.

Also, with mads's death, Miles is definitively the person in game with the worst alibis, and he has no investigations on him so far. My bet is he'll be investigated and caught for this death. If anything will save him, it will be the fact that there's only one clue, and he MIGHT not end up as one of the first 3-ish people investigated.

Someone accidentally put kmli's alibi into the cell for kmath's alibi
fake GNs' name correspondence too good

Also, I think just by looking at the players with cursors on the alibi spreadsheet most often one can have a pretty good idea who the investigative roles (and occasionally some of the mafia) are

Also, the two mafia are now the only two uninvestigated people with bad alibis for the "vig kill"...

Also, I don't blame her because she's new to this, but ajfike has been making investigation choices that have left me confused. She just investigated dylanhen -> mads even though dylan has an alibi... And before this she's been making repeat investigations for everything. I guess occasionally that makes sense.

Also I guess she accidentally let lukesci know her role before he died, somehow?

Regarding possible explanations for ajfike's investigations:
1. She re-investigated the positive investigation for Luke when there were no unexplained deaths and multiple people were mentioning the possibility of the investigator lying on forums. Double checking here is pretty reasonable, especially if she knew she wouldn't have time to get to campus to investigate a new death.
2. She re-investigated Shi-ke for my death. Kind of not useful, she hadn't made it to get clues for lukesci's death yet, and Josh's hadn't happened. Also seems to have come from not being willing to go to campus to get more clues.
3. She re-investigated ltchin for the death of Lukesci. Maybe trying to catch the other investigator in a potential lie?
4. She investigated Dylan when jamb alibied him. She could think that two mafia might alibi one another, which is pretty reasonable when there are only two mafia. In fact, if the mafia could reasonably alibi each other, I think they almost certainly would alibi each other. So this is potentially reasonable.

Basically, it looks like ajfike is trying to catch people in lies, which is less likely to be effective than a regular investigation, but higher gain if it is effective.

Not sure why Dgrazian counted the mafia though. No deaths since Josh's count could have been mafia, except Luke.

I'm guessing he misclicked and meant to make an investigation. Should add some confirmation box to that maybe...

Oh my god, the last minute shenanigans. Lily just got a positive result...

The question is, will town lynch him in time?

Wow, that escalated quickly

Also the gay network isn't communicating anything :/