Live Action Mafia

RIP mafia.

Daniel didn't make a mayoral investigation?

Also, did miles destroy his shovel?

Also, who has my taser now? Forgot to pass it off.

Also lilychen essentially just outed herself as investigator (two investigations, one repeated as "mads' investigator"), but guess it was most likely worth it

oh dylan has the shovel now. he'll probably have the same webapp bug kmath and I got.

Yep, if Asya notices, Lily could be trapped. Ambiguous if it's worth it, because she's poisoned.

Sammy: Dgrazian didn't make a mayoral investigation (I agree that the count was probably a misclick), kmath got your taser, and Dylan got Miles's shovel. Ironically, Miles might look more innocent from this (town knows mafia has a plant evidence left, and Miles was announced as a person to investigate ahead of time, so he could have pretty plausibly been framed. Also, the accidental count-the-mafia usage will make it so town has no way to be sure that there's only one mafia left. This is really important, because it means town can't assume that alibis=innocence (I guess there's also hitman).

Daniel made a mayoral investigation via PM (and learned that lgunder did not kill mads). The count was a misclick.

And indeed, RIP mafia.

Wait, the "count the mafia" misclick is a pretty unfortunate thing. In this case I feel like it gave little enough information that I'd consider letting him redo the count now.

We should definitely remember to make a confirmation window or something when we can...

Oh, now Asya (because she didn't hire a hitman before day end) has a tough choice: either lose don powers, or have a no-kill day followed by a hitman, which would prove that Luke really was killed by a mafia (because otherwise mafia would lose). If it's the former, then mafia becomes seriously vulnerable to microphones (there are two town-owned pairs left in game, and they only have one kaboom left). If it's the latter, then mafia will get fucked from the fact that Asya is literally the only person left with a bad alibi for Luke's death, and a no-kill day would leave town the time to investigate the death.

I guess to some degree, this is actually David's tough choice...

Mafia are pretty much fucked though. If Asya had infinite time for game, I'd give town something like a 95% win rate. But she's barely going to be able to take a single game action before she leaves for Japan, and she'll have to dump all the responsibility on David, who has no idea what's going on in game. So I think mafia winning is almost impossible.

For future reference, here's the main infodump I sent to dgrazian and kmli (and bcc'd to ghost ksedlar):

"
No new IC or GN claims yet; hopefully you're not the only two pairs of people :/
Not including jamb or kmath in this dump because I want to lower the chance of conscription leaks, but feel free to share what you're comfortable sharing so that info is not lost. (I would say Daniel share most of this with Jackie, kmli don't share with kmath just yet)

My thoughts:

Some of these lists are updated versions of things I've already sent to kmli.

Conscript is almost certainly in this list (decreasing likelihood approximately, though the top half is unclear):
ltchin
kmath
lilychen
Lucy
Daniel Grazian
jamb
abergal

though for psych reasons I trust kmath considerably

Last starting mafia is most likely in this list (decreasing):
Lucy
dylanhen
ltchin
lilychen
abergal
mads
miles
or, significantly less likely:
ajliu
ajfike
lgunder

If it's any of the last 4, expect the conscript to probably be in random.

A combined trust list is probably something like (in decreasing trust):

strong trust:
sammyluo (yay)
kmli
Daniel Grazian

reasonable trust:
jamb
kmath
lgunder
ajliu

neutralish:
ajfike
mads
lilychen
abergal
Lucy

somewhat distrust:
miles
dylanhen
ltchin

Miscellaneous notes on people:
kmath:
Strong psych trust, don't know her well enough to know if she's just really tricky / good at giving this impression. Things she's done seem pretty genuinely town-helpful from the perspective of knowing she's a GN
jamb:
Was initially pretty sketched out, but now that I know she's a GN the sketchiness has gone away mostly. Haven't interacted as much as with kmath
ltchin:
you two both know by now that ltchin was the one who claimed vigilante and wanted to kill jamb. Her story about Luke passing through destiny seems pretty believable, but I also know her to be a good liar, and some of how she's been acting is consistent with a less extreme version of her behavior as rogue during 2014 Fall game. Also would be a pretty good conscription choice. I don't have any strong evidence against her though.
lilychen:
Daniel seems to know a lot more than me (for good reason, of course); kmath thought she was sketchy for pushing for lynching her so hard, but I think that was also reasonable from her perspective
lgunder:
Seemed (for at least the first 2.5 days, and still largely now) to be genuinely too inactive/clueless to be mafia, though has been giving pretty useless alibis near the last few crime scenes.
ajliu:
Moderate psych trust/action-based trust, not sure how dependable this is. Initially found her a bit sketchy for asking more questions than usual in floorpi paranoia texting club, now seems normal
mads:
involved in some ksedlar microphone plans, also is a proxy (or pretending to be) for someone who would've had to be at random before end of day 1.
ajfike:
seems mostly like a harmless fairly inactive new player
abergal:
not doing that much, unverifiable alibis, history of being pretty tricky, somewhat likely conscript, otherwise not much to note
Lucy, dylanhen: kmath and ltchin (and jamb, sort of) have all expressed sketchiness from dylanhen (from being in weird places, etc.), and the first two have sort of expressed it for Lucy by association. Would probably be worth checking if they keep alibiing each other for things? Not that significant though.
miles: no explicit psychological sketchiness felt, but seems to be checking forums often (based on timestamp) without doing anything (including posting alibis). Claims busyness, but should probably be scrutinized.

Again, keep in mind that the possibilities for conscriptor-conscriptee pairs are actually kind of limited. Either shike conscripted someone at random, or else two other people who had a chance to be privately near each other conscripted each other before 7:something pm day 2.
"

From Dgrazian to some ghosts/GMs:


The following are some of my thoughts on the game. Feel free to post in the graveyard. Different paragraphs may cover entirely different subjects.

I was mildly surprised to see that I was apparently right about Miles. My desire to have Miles executed/investigated (I called for his execution before lilychen investigated him) mainly came from the incongruity between his apparent lack of paying attention to the game (when lilychen tried to talk to him he just said that he hadn't really been paying attention to the game) and the occasional rapidity with which he received/responded to private messages (according to sammyluo.) I also thought it a bit odd that he had posted an alibi for mads' death after no alibis in a few days. None of this made me confident of his guilt; I just had a weird feeling about him that I know from experience tends to be right a disproportionate amount of the time. And I was more than happy to execute somebody.

For psychological reasons, I am extremely confident in lilychen's innocence. I would put it at a <5% chance that she is mafia (I'm going to be so embarrassed if I'm wrong...) I've had a bit of a hard time trusting the other gay knights, especially kmath, because of conscription concerns. None of the gay knights are at the top of my suspect list now, though.

Assuming Miles didn't get framed, there is only one mafia left. I'm confident that the last mafia is a randomite or highly random-affiliated. The most likely candidates are:
1. ltchin (she's my top suspect by a good margin. I could easily see her hand in the shenanigans of this game, in particular the lukesci incident.)
2. kmath (she's a claimed gay-knight but I could totally see her having been conscripted and subsequently directing everything that's happened.)
3. abergal

My current theory on what happened to Luke is that:
- He was a serial killer
- He and the mafia decided that since he was very likely going to be executed anyway, they would kill him in a way that spread confusion.
- He deliberately came over to Random to be killed there.
- We were probably supposed to think that manipulate the press had been used.
- Ltchin probably was part of this plan.
This is a speculative theory. I'd be mildly and pleasantly surprised if all of this were correct. Even if this theory is incorrect, ltchin is still my top suspect.

Poison should only take one day. Two days is a long time, too long. Alternatively, it would be fine to say that it takes two days if used in the first couple days of the game and one day otherwise.

_________________
L