Live Action Mafia

Do people have ideas/suspicions? There isn't likely to be another kill today. Personally I am still vaguely suspicious of regirock, but those suspicions aren't founded in anything concrete.

Also, I have some information I want to share about ijc. When I talked to him yesterday about his role, he told me the following:

- His role is called the "Ceremony Leader"
- He gets a new ceremony once every two days
- The ceremony he had was several lines from a Frozen song

This information seemed pretty believable to me given what I know about ceremonies and existing abilities. That being said, ijc showed up positive in an investigation. So, either ijc is a good liar, ijc was framed, or mafia have some kind of ceremony ability as well.

Last ceremony told us the number of mafia remaining, which would be pretty useful now as well.

I kind of wish I had suspicions since people think I'm sketchy. But I have none right now. Someone could do another investigation of ijc to conform that he was bad, and then we could lynch people who seemed to be strongly defending him?

I don't think anyone was particularly strongly defending ijc - I was probably the most vocal for lynching you (regirock) over him, because he'd claimed a provable role and you hadn't.

I don't think your sketch level has really gone down since day 2 end - in particular, I don't think whether or not ijc actually was mafia should have much of an impact on the probability you're mafia.

"Frozen" lyrics + aok flavor text + Freeze incant = something, maybe?

I agree with Sammy that regirock's sketch level doesn't really change based on what we know about ijc. I also think that given that the rules state that ceremonies are "generally" town-aligned, ijc probably had a mafia ceremony.

Pretty happy that we got confirmation from Daniel that ijc killed. At the very least, we know that mafia framed / planted evidence or that dgrazian will seem more sketch.

Can we start lynching inactives / poor alibi people? By the spreadsheet, shikexue and arkaidyf have the fewest alibi updates. mnjy also has the most shady alibis according to the spreadsheet, but they've been active (and are new?) so I'd be less inclined to lynch mob them.

I'm less suspicious about regirock than I was before. I don't think the mafia would have allowed the only two lynch candidates to be mafia. And ijc was definitely guilty*

In fact, my top suspects are the people who voted for regirock and/or advocated for lynching her. Based on the discussion beforehand, it looked like it would be a very close vote (I definitely didn't know which way it was going to go.) The mafia could have reasonably expected to not stand out with their votes.

* He killed pravinas. It's possible that he wasn't actually mafia, but I definitely think that he was.

My investigations are god-guaranteed infallible. Either I am lying or ijc killed pravinas. Investigation manipulation abilities will not work on my investigations.

Oh, I didn't realize about the infallible investigations.

I talked to the person I'm proxying for, their role is not called "Ceremony Leader". So ijc was probably lying. Either mafia have ceremonies or he just made it up; I believe that ijc is a good enough player to have done so.

Yes, let's do that. I don't think we should count it against people if they don't have alibis posted yet for today's death (it's reasonable to only log in toward the end of day). I also think it's fine if people don't post alibis for Day 2 Death 1 because we think that was ijc. So the people who really need to post alibis are shikexue and lzahray for Day 2 Death 2. If they continue to not post (and we don't get any better evidence) I'd go for lynching either of them.

I agree that I have bad alibis, but I can't really do anything about that. :/ I figured it would be worse to post no alibi or a false alibi. I don't regularly hang out with any of the other players so I suspect I will just never have player-verified alibis. The best I can do is NPs.

I just want to point out that "Ceremony Leader" doesn't seem particularly likely to me as the name of a role, because it's already another mechanical thing in the rules (referring to the person who leads a particular ceremony). I think it would be too confusing if there was Ceremony Leader (the role) as well as ceremony leader (in reference to a particular ceremony) and I don't think the gods would have made a role called Ceremony Leader. So I think that ijc probably just made it up.

Also yeah, I think I'm also in favor of lynching inactives. I've been asking all the players I meet if they have any items (for potion making) but no one seems to want to give me anything. I want to say that townies would be willing to give up items (like apples and potatoes and stuff) that have no purpose other than potion-making, so it seems strange to me (not to mention incredibly frustrating) that people aren't willing to give me stuff. So I'm inclined to think that there are inactives holding on to lots of items...

I didn't catch that ijc explicitly claimed the role name "ceremony leader"? A search with these parameters finds nothing. Was this claim made in person?

Also, from what pravina told me, potatoes probably have effects upon being eaten, and maybe apples would too. Still, I do think most townies would be willing to give up things for potions, assuming they trust you. But then again, people can be pretty paranoid about small things in general

Sorry about being inactive the past few days, but I was very much hosed the past few days from classwork, as can be confirmed by a bunch of people. That's over now, so I will be able to do more now.

I have definitely read something about there being a claim that he was 'ceremony leader', which I believe was either in this thread or in yesterday's lunch discussion. I'll try and find it

Oh okay so I was thinking of the post at the start of the thread. Not an in person claim though if that's what you're looking for

I met regirock to give her something I had to give away, and she seemed pretty careful/nervous that I might be mafia and kill her. This suggested to me that she's scared of the mafia and therefore not mafia.

Shike Dylan and Lucy suggested Ishara (in person discussion at ceremony)

Dgrazian vouched for Ishara

I'm against lynching Ishara.

Oops sorry Dylan says he was against lynching Ishara not for.

My reasoning was that the night before aok died, he messaged me saying that he thought Ishara was sketchy.

Also, apparently some people want to lynch Sammy luo?

Fun. Let me know by 10pm if this is still a thing so I can say things if they need to be said.

Since we know ijc killed, should the people who were seen with him 5 mins before the kill defend themselves? Apologies if this already happened.

Speaking for dgrazien and lucy and generally the people at ET who are talking:

Dgrazien is thinking of abergal for the lynch because she voted for regirock yesterday and also was advocating for regirock. Also he says he's not as sure.

I like that argument better. However it doesn't seem like abergal was strongly advocating either one. She only posted twice and gave a (possibly) legitimate reason for trusting ijc.

Dgrazian says he has information that means we shouldn't lynch sammyluo, and I'm inclined to trust him. Abergal was advocating lynching regirock instead of ijc the next most, so I think we should go with abergal.

She didn't say a lot, but if ian was mafia, then mafia would have tried to do Something to get someone else lynched.

More things from ET chapter room conversation:
Reviewing timestamps from Pravina's pre-death chat, Jordan and ijc were seen within the same minute of each other (12:03). lzahray was seen (in Pravina's subjective estimation) 5 minutes before 12:04. Pravina's death was at 12:09 (if I recall correctly). This makes jordan more suspicious, but not a ton, because these texts were not exactly at time of death.

I am in favor of lynching abergal. Ijc was guilty (and presumably mafia.) Assuming regirock is innocent (and as I mentioned before I think she probably is) I think the mafia would have made an effort to shift votes from ijc to regirock. The only players I know of who were making a legitimate effort to do this were sammyluo and abergal. I now have reason to believe that sammyluo is not mafia. So that leaves abergal.

If anybody else was actively working toward shifting the vote from ijc to regirock, somebody please post about it here.

Abergal is definitely not a sure thing, but I think she's our best bet.

Abergal was saying ijc was innocent after we lynched him though. If she was mafia protecting her mafia buddy the night before, would she really want to draw attention to the fact that she was doing that?