Live Action Mafia

Post here, NOT in chat!

Total claims:
2 KP
1 DA
3 CT
1 K
8 P

Reminder that if you are town, mafia know your role already, so lying would do nothing but screw up town reasoning.

Roles that are provable:

DA - say banana bread to someone publicly.
CT - say boo to someone publicly.
K - say bang to someone publicly. (Preferably someone body doubled, so they won't die.)
KP - have someone say bang to you publicly on day 1; if you don't die you're a KP.

Roles that are not provable:
P

Presumably Mafia were smart enough not to claim anything they can't prove, but we should still test the first four roles on day 1.

Either there are no mafia killers (MKs), or there are enough DAs to cover every KP. (The former is unlikely, so let's conclude: #DA >= #KP.)

Either there are enough town DAs (TDAs) to protect all the KPs on day 2, or there are few enough MKs that TKs plus the lynch can get rid of them all day 1. The former is false since we have only 1 claimed TDA and 2 claimed KPs. There's only 1 claimed TK, so

#MK <= 2

Also, if Troy is a Mafia killer, then he's the only mafia killer. This seems unlikely. We like Troy. (attributed to Ksedlar)

Townies should make actions publicly. As a corollary, psychiatrists should claim their info, and not use proxies. It makes info more provable / trackable.

Corollary 2: If anyone does a non-public action on you, report it. They're sketchy.

We like AOK because it's unlikely there's no town DA. (From: Ksedlar.)

(Complicated logic chain at Thursday 22:20 in chat from ksedlar): there is either no mafia CT, or no mafia KP.

(jamb): seems unlikely to be a balanced game if there's no mafia CT.

Josh pointed out that the most recent post has faulty logic.

Josh also thinks there will be 5-7 mafia and a very tight game which requires semi-perfect town play.

Agreed that it actually is possible for there to be a mafia CT and a mafia KP. I forgot that the day 3 incident could be avoided by killing the culprit before day 3.

I also added a second page to the spreadsheet, for determining estimates of mafia roles from what people have claimed.

Copypasta from chat:

I don't think that 0 mafia killers is as stupid as it sounds, and KP is the second least provable role.
(I'm just looking through the spreadsheet and making comments)
P has no way to prove itself but.
CT either Boos or dies that day.
K either Bangs or dies the next day.
DA can trivally Banana Bread.
KP only dies if, as a group, we decide that we don't trust them enough and make them prove their role.
So we should probably make sure that happens for the claimed KPs at least once each.

KP is still pretty provable. We just have Troy attempt to kill a KP day 1; Luke living proves he is a KP. Luke dying either doesn't end game (outing Luke as mafia) or it does (proving that mafia have 0 killers and proving Troy innocent). Whatever happens, that's valuable information. Aok is vouching that Jackie is KP, so we shouldn't test her until a later loop.

It's possible that Mafia DA could be forced to body double a Town KP. Just saying, that's a possibility.

Pravina, I'm a bit confused about your comment. My understanding is that on day 1, a mafia DA MUST be forced to body double a KP; it's not just a possibility. After day 1, I think there isn't any way to get body doubling benefit from a mafia DA.

Pravina is saying that it might be possible for there to exist a mafia DA, who would then be forced to body double a town KP.

New thought: Given 2 KP, there is a maximum of one mafia killer. Assumptions: (2 KP) and (DAs know their body double day 1).

2 KP implies 2 DA via race conditions. One DA is mafia or a really bad townie, nearly equivalent in my mind. Now assume there are two mafia killers. Given that the mafia DA knows whom they are protecting, killing the other DA and the unprotected KP day 1 gives us a race condition if there are two mafia killers.

If there is only one KP, there can still be multiple DAs protecting the same KP day 1, so there could be two killers for mafia.

My guess is that we do have 2 KP, 1 mafia K, and that we must kill/execute the mafia K on day 1. This does give a little freedom with one of the two town-motivated killing options (assuming you trust me). It is still very likely that a DA is a prime target for any mafia K to reduce town voting power or that I am the target to reduce town's ability to eliminate mafia in important roles (in the later loops).

Troy-DAs give protection for the entire day even if they die during the day, so there can still be two mafia K and the town still have a provable win with no race conditions. If there is, then in order to win a loop, you must kill one of the mafia K on day 1, and town must lynch the other on day 1. I think this is likely, and I think the town K and town DA are the top targets on day 1 as well.

DA protection lasts until the end of the day, even if the DA is killed.

The 2 mafia killer limit comes from the fact that we can only guarantee killing off two of them by the start of day 2 (lynch and town killer), and in the meantime they could have killed the DA, which would cause a race condition to kill the KP on day 2.