SUPER IMPORTANT THING I JUST REALIZED!!!!!!!!!
WE REALLY REALLY WANT THE DAY 1 INCIDENT TO HAPPEN! In the early loops, that is. If the day 1 incident happens, then psychiatrists can use their questions to ask, "If player X had one more paranoia, which incidents would happen?" The answer will then let them narrow down the day 3 / day 4 culprits.
I think we specifically want the conspiracy theorists to boo SIX DIFFERENT PEOPLE, so that we can do this with day 4, in addition to getting a one-shot binary search on day 3.
For example, let's say the conspiracy theorists boo players 1-6 and trigger the day 1 incident. Let's call the day 1 dead and lynched players player 14 and player 15. We're pretty sure key people can't be day 3/4 culprits, so let's call them players 12 and 13. The 4 psychiatrists who get goodwill ask about players 1-4 getting an extra paranoia. We then find out with very high confidence (due to 4 psychologists saying it) whether the day 3 culprit is among players 1-6 or 7-11. We also get 4 people asking questions of the form, "Is player X the day 4 culprit?" We can do similar things on future days / on future loops, but this is most important for n=1, because there aren't many good counting-based n=1 questions.
As I posted in the Strategy thread, killing the day 3 and 4 culprits is probably necessary to win (mafia can always trigger incident 3 and 4 if they have a DA and a CT). So finding the culprits is a top priority, and that's hard to do without triggering the day 1 incident.
|