| Live Action Mafia http://mafia.mit.edu/ |
|
| Role claim strategy! http://mafia.mit.edu/viewtopic.php?f=176&t=4386 |
Page 1 of 1 |
| Author: | jamb [ Wed Mar 16, 2016 12:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Role claim strategy! |
Yesterday I wrote up all my thoughts on game from a townie perspective, so that I could convincingly fake what I'd be thinking as a townie if I were mafia. Therefore, here's a document on all my thoughts on game without knowing all the roles. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cwF ... sp=sharing It goes without saying that y'all shouldn't share this link with town, and DO NOT LET ANYONE CATCH YOU LOOKING AT IT EVER EVER EVER CLOSE THE TAB. (Alternatively we could rename the doc something innocuous so the tab name isn't damning - ideas?) TL;DR false role claiming anything except psychologist can be proven false. Anyone other than a killer false role claiming can be proven false. |
|
| Author: | jamb [ Wed Mar 16, 2016 3:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Role claim strategy! |
I'm naming the doc "MIT Course Management System" so it will look exactly the same as any stellar.mit.edu tabs you have open. |
|
| Author: | jamb [ Wed Mar 16, 2016 3:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Role claim strategy! |
From the document above, edited to reflect actual info: ROLE CLAIMS P is the only claim that cannot potentially be proven false. Not too many people should claim this, because it will look sketchy having more than the 4 actual P's - maybe just 1 of the killers and one of the CTs, and everyone else claims what they actually are. Alternatively, we could have no one claim P, and then everyone would assume some of the actual P's were lying, because mafia should clearly claim P. If we do have mafia claim P, all mafia can help figure out what results P should claim; this should be done in advance so that the claimer can follow through even if the rest of mafia die. Note: one of the CTs will need to be open so they can quickly throw paranoia on people day 1; should this be dpalumbo (living at the house, can do it first thing in the morning before anyone can kill the day 1 culprit) or dgrazian (harder to kill before he can do anything)? We’ll need to choose a killer who is willing to be openly mafia after round 1 or 2. They should be willing and able to make all the kills in an early round, and then be very active for day 1 of later rounds. Ideally they’d also be the killers who are worse at lying / psychological cues. I (Jackie) will need to post a significant amount of good advice to town in order to pull off seeming innocent, because people know I’ve been thinking about strategy so I’ve basically pre-committed to doing so (and also doing otherwise would be inconsistent with my past gameplay). If we think that any of the strategy I’ve come up with would be too beneficial to town (over what they would come up with independently) then *maybe* I should just cut my losses and be clearly mafia, but I’ve also been very good at emitting townie vibes in the past. (Admittedly due to being town.) I don't think any killers (Ks) should admit to being Ks, because town can use claimed Ks to test-kill KPs and Ps, per the strategy I've outlined, so we don't want to put any more ammunition in their hands. Is it a good idea to have a mafia K claim KP? This claim is falsifiable, but only by having the town K (Troy) waste his day 1 kill checking claimed KP's to see if they're K's. We can't really have another mafia claim to be their DA, because DA's are obviously provable via "banana bread." So we'd have to have the actual mafia DA (lilychen) pretend that her body double target is the mafia-K-claiming-KP. Then it'll be obvious that something fishy is going on (because lukesci will be claiming KP but no DA claims him as target), but town won't be able to distinguish between (a) lukesci is lying, (b) I (jamb) am lying and have a mafia buddy covering for me, (c) mafia-K-claiming-KP is lying and has a mafia buddy covering for them, or (d) there's a mafia DA who isn't admitting they're a DA. Town has to kill each of us on day 1 to determine which is true, which would take 3 rounds before they discover that it's (c). Meanwhile, that's wasting their killer's ability for 3 rounds. On the other hand, when they *do* figure out it's (c), that outs both the mafia-K-claiming-KP (who would probably be shortly outed anyway due to having to kill people for us to win) and lilychen. Also, in order for us to win the loop we have to kill a key person, which would probably prove them key person, so we'd have to kill the one who was already proven key person, which might be tricky. |
|
| Author: | jamb [ Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Role claim strategy! |
Alternatively, we could in fact have lilychen NOT claim DA, and just have me and lukesci claim KPs, which would make lukesci look bad and force a town killer to check him. This is analogous to universe (d) in the above. Maybe we ought to weight these plans and decide probabilistically between them so town can't guess which strategy we'd go with? Anyway, it also occurs to me that it's really easy to check if the number of DAs is being lied about, because of counting vote totals at the end of day. |
|
| Author: | dylanhen [ Wed Mar 16, 2016 7:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Role claim strategy! |
Is there a guarantee that every KP has a DA on them? |
|
| Author: | dylanhen [ Wed Mar 16, 2016 7:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Role claim strategy! |
Is there a guarantee that every KP has a DA on them? |
|
| Author: | jamb [ Wed Mar 16, 2016 8:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Role claim strategy! |
Implied by the guarantee that town can win if they know everything. If there were an unprotected KP on day 1, Mafia would have a trivial win. |
|
| Author: | jamb [ Thu Mar 17, 2016 9:06 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Role claim strategy! |
I no longer think the have-a-K-claim-KP strategy is feasible, because with only 2 K's, they're both probably going to get outed pretty early, and we don't want to take a mafia DA down with them. I still like having lilychen claim P instead of DA. Sure, it would be obvious to the town that there's another DA who's lying, but what can they really do with that? It would take a lot of P questions to narrow it down. Meanwhile they'd have to test lukesci to make sure he's not the one lying. And if Lily doesn't claim DA, then she doesn't take the blame if we're able to kill Luke on day 2. I still think it's really important that we have some people claiming P who can plausibly maintain the claim for a while so as to mislead town as long as possible. (That is, NOT Ks, who would be outed quickly.) So, a CT and/or a DA? (Ks may still claim P, but they shouldn't expect to be able to maintain that pretense for very long.) I almost *have* to role claim honestly, because otherwise town will check me day 1 when aok tells them I'm his KP. On the other hand, it's conceivably better to lie to force town to make that check, because even if they find I'm mafia, what can they do? They can't kill me. And if I were obviously Mafia, then I wouldn't have to give all my good ideas to town. On the other hand, maybe in later rounds when town votes to give luke or me a gun, if I seem innocent enough they might give it to me... and giving them any info about who's mafia just makes it easier for them to use P's to figure everything out... so I think it's best if I claim KP. |
|
| Author: | jamb [ Thu Mar 17, 2016 9:08 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Role claim strategy! |
This forum is so lonely... I feel a bit awkward dumping all my half-formed ideas here... But I'm going to keep doing it. Please don't judge the quality of my ideas, it's hard to think of every possible scenario / ramification! Give feedback & brainstorming when you have a chance 
|
|
| Author: | AdamYedidia [ Mon Mar 21, 2016 4:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Role claim strategy! |
Okay, I just read the rules, but I admit to not having read all your extensive ideas, Jackie (although it's awesome that you made them all!) So we have to win 6 loops, but we only have two killers? What is our plan for killing the KP more than twice? We can use the day 4 paranoia trigger for one more kill. There's probably lots of other ways to win that I missed or forgot. Also, it occurs to me that one of me or Dylan should make the first kill on the Key Person immediately, because otherwise two days will pass and we'll both be forced to make a kill and thereby be outed. |
|
| Author: | jamb [ Mon Mar 21, 2016 4:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Role claim strategy! |
See other topic for ideas on how to make it through 6 loops (I agree, it'll be tough!) I'm not sure I understand your logic about why you'd both be outed if you didn't kill a KP immediately. Anyway, note that you can't kill a KP on the first day (because they're automatically protected via body doubling). Also remember that I'm a KP, and killing me doesn't out you 
|
|
| Author: | AdamYedidia [ Mon Mar 21, 2016 5:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Role claim strategy! |
Oh dang, I didn't even notice you were a KP, I only noticed Luke. That's very convenient! My logic was that killers have to kill at least every other day or they die. So, I figured that one of Dylan or I would want to kill a KP before the other of us was forced to kill. |
|
| Author: | jamb [ Mon Mar 21, 2016 5:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Role claim strategy! |
AdamYedidia wrote: My logic was that killers have to kill at least every other day or they die. So, I figured that one of Dylan or I would want to kill a KP before the other of us was forced to kill. Oh right, I forgot about that. Notice that you don't have to *kill*, you just have to say bang. In particular, if you kill me on the first day, I won't die but it'll satisfy your bloodthirst. Also, even if we win on day 2, both killers have to have used their power in the first two days, because day 2 will carry out to its end and town will notice if someone randomly dies that night. |
|
| Author: | AdamYedidia [ Mon Mar 21, 2016 5:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Role claim strategy! |
Wait, how come you don't die? Did I miss something? Also, if we can't kill the KP on the first day, but we die if we don't kill on the second day, that's bad! It sounds like we can't avoid having both of us be outed/in a beef of some king after the first loop. Unless one of us bangs you without killing you, I suppose. |
|
| Author: | jamb [ Mon Mar 21, 2016 6:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Role claim strategy! |
I'm a KP, so AOK is body doubling me on day 1 each loop. Thus you can kill me and I'll live. Thus we'll be fine
|
|
| Author: | AdamYedidia [ Mon Mar 21, 2016 6:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Role claim strategy! |
Wait, I'm confused. How does AOK know you're a key person? |
|
| Author: | AdamYedidia [ Mon Mar 21, 2016 6:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Role claim strategy! |
Also, wouldn't we rather kill you, have the town lose, and then you can blame a townie for killing you? |
|
| Author: | jamb [ Mon Mar 21, 2016 7:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Role claim strategy! |
From the rules: Double agent: i. May tap any player but themself on the shoulder and say “banana bread!” once per day. ii. Their votes (for goodwill and executions) count double. iii. At the start of the loop, is given one Key Person (the same each loop) to be a body double of. iv. Each night (starting with Night 1), they may change the person they’re body doubling to any player but themself. v. At the start of each day, any player who has at least one body double will be told they are immune to the incant "bang!" for that day, and must respond "I do not die." vi. Loses powers iv and v on each day which they start with more paranoia than goodwill. AOK is a double agent, and by (iii) is given a key person. That person is me. Therefore, by (v) you can't kill me on day 1 (or any day when I'm being body doubled). Yes, you do in fact want to kill me, and I will certainly blame a townie (unless there's already an outed mafia alive in which case I may blame them for credibility). |
|
| Page 1 of 1 | All times are UTC - 5 hours |
| Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group http://www.phpbb.com/ |
|