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 Post subject: Possible sets of mafia
PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2016 6:13 pm 

Joined: Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:14 am
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The following are the possible sets of mafia:

(maxmurin or nastya or Alex) + (achester or csvoss):
These are technically still possible. csvoss or I would have had to be conscripted and passed along all the information. I'd bet the game on not this unless the other cases turn out impossible. These are the only cases where sammyluo is good (since the only other living GCSN members are me and csvoss, and the only other possible initial mafia are maxmurin, nastya, and Alex).

sammyluo + 1 more (likely maxmurin, since sammyluo defended him yesterday in the GCSN and alibi'd him today and on day 1 as a "stalker"): we can win with some room to spare by guessing the other mafia. There's at least one good gay knight who can make a revenge kill, and we win the vote today to kill the other one. Even if we miss the revenge kill, I think we win: we execute sammyluo today and cast tiebreaker votes for the other person. Then at most two townies die of poison, leaving 4 townies and 1 mafia. The mafia can Slaughter only one, Trap only one (unless the mafia had enough role information before sammyluo entered the GCSN to set a trap by day 4, in which case they'd still have a Trap use left today), and regular-kill only one, leaving one townie to win the tiebroken vote. Also, this doesn't even use vigilantes, and there might be a good vigilante.

sammyluo +2 more: Our only chance in this case is if:
-different mafia made the two gay knight kills (in which case we could win today by getting two revenge kills and an execution), or
-there's a good vigilante (in which case we could win today by getting a vigilante kill, a revenge kill, and an execution), or
-Lucy or sashacf is mafia, and no other GCSN member is mafia. Then the mafia don't have a trap use left today, so they can only set one tomorrow. If we get one revenge kill and one execution and coordinate to have at least three votes for the living mafia (so they'd lose the tiebreaker tomorrow), there's only one mafia left, and there are four townies left (after one of Lucy and sashacf dies of poison). The mafia can only Slaughter me, trap-kill one person, and regularly kill one, leaving one person who can vote to execute the last mafia. (If Lucy and sashacf are both good, then too many townies will die tonight.)


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2016 6:18 pm 

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Ooh, actually, if Lucy is good, I'm also proven good: there'd be only two mafia left (by Lucy's count), so to make five kills they'd both have to make at least one kill (since scheme can't be done by the same person who makes the regular kill), and Lucy alibis me for all five of those kills. So the unlikely case is down to csvoss + (maxmurin or nastya or Alex).


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2016 6:19 pm 
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2 of Achester, csvoss, Alex must be town because they are proven ic/gn at start of game.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2016 6:25 pm 
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See my thread for the other side of this.

achester wrote:
Ooh, actually, if Lucy is good, I'm also proven good: there'd be only two mafia left (by Lucy's count), so to make five kills they'd both have to make at least one kill (since scheme can't be done by the same person who makes the regular kill), and Lucy alibis me for all five of those kills. So the unlikely case is down to csvoss + (maxmurin or nastya or Alex).


Not true: mafia could set one trap each on the two previous days, then set another one today after killing one of the previous trap targets. Then they slaughter ltchin, and use a regular kill for the last kill. I'm fairly sure this is what happened. I also wouldn't be surprised if I was (mechanically) framed for one or more of today's kills, but the only non-GN kill I was not on floorpi for was the 5th, and you can ask NPs Peter Csikvari, Victor Wang, Mark Sellke, Mitchell Lee, Jonathan Tidor, etc. to verify that I was in class on time.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2016 8:15 pm 

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Here's my best guess about everything that's happened so far in game. I could be wrong on almost any of it, but I'd give at least 4:1 odds that it's mostly correct.

-The set of living mafia is {sammyluo, maxmurin, Lucy}. The set of dead mafia is {tsims, aok}.
-Either sammyluo or Lucy is the conscript. it's irrelevant which, but I'd bet sammyluo.
-The don is maxmurin.
-Maxmurin killed ijc on day 1, and sammyluo claimed to stalk him to establish an alibi.
-Aok was serial killer, and killed jfrisch. (Duh.)
-Lucy killed lilychen on day 3. Sammyluo claimed to stalk her to establish an alibi. (She's in the group that was investigated guilty.)
-tsims killed jakob on day 3 (possibly with a scheme, or possibly Lucy overheard lilychen revealing as IC and Slaughtered her).
-Sammyluo falsely reported the shovel result on jakob.
-One of maxmurin and sammyluo killed isaacg. He was the last Randomite, so they didn't worry about being seen. (They alibi'd each other for that kill.)
-Plant evidence was used on dgrazian. The mafia chose to kill and plant evidence on him because he was a claimed stalker, and calling him mafia threw suspicion off Lucy and sammyluo, the two mafia who claimed stalker.
-Maxmurin killed brunnerj, and investigates negative for it as don. (It's also possible that sammyluo did it with maxmurin as a scout.)
-Some combination of the three went on today's rampage. I didn't actually go downstairs to rinse something off (I'm pretty sure), and Lucy made that up hoping to plant a fake memory by which I'd alibi her.
-sammyluo convinced fmajluf7 to trust him, wheedled most of the GCSN's membership out of her (fmajluf7, if you're reading this from the graveyard, I chide you), and then convinced her so much that she let him in. But he didn't actually get any role information he was confident enough of to set a trap/slaughter with until he was let in on day 5.
-sammyluo, ltchin, and majluf7 collectively convinced each other that I was sketchy. (Not sure whether this started with sammyluo; I find it plausible that ltchin never trusted me and started it, and sammyluo just bandwagoned.)
-The mafia poisoned sashacf so that Lucy could claim to have been poisoned simultaneously, and neither of them would look any sketchier.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2016 8:25 pm 

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Assuming this is the case, we need to impeach Lucy today, or we lose on the vote (unless a successful revenge or vigilante kill happens). If I'm wrong about Lucy being bad, impeaching her doesn't swing us from winning the vote to losing it.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2016 9:29 pm 
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What the heck? achester, I'd like to take you up on this bet. How much are you willing to bet?

achester wrote:
-The set of living mafia is {sammyluo, maxmurin, Lucy}. The set of dead mafia is {tsims, aok}.
-Lucy killed lilychen on day 3. Sammyluo claimed to stalk her to establish an alibi. (She's in the group that was investigated guilty.)
-tsims killed jakob on day 3 (possibly with a scheme, or possibly Lucy overheard lilychen revealing as IC and Slaughtered her).

You're claiming that Lucy lied about the tsims investigation to implicate a fellow mafia? Or that mafia framed tsims, a mafia?

Quote:
-One of maxmurin and sammyluo killed isaacg. He was the last Randomite, so they didn't worry about being seen. (They alibi'd each other for that kill.)

So mafia just didn't use their hitman?

Quote:
-Maxmurin killed brunnerj, and investigates negative for it as don. (It's also possible that sammyluo did it with maxmurin as a scout.)

This don claim cancels your probabilistic claim of maxmurin killed isaacg, reducing it to sammyluo killed isaacg.

Quote:
-Some combination of the three went on today's rampage. I didn't actually go downstairs to rinse something off (I'm pretty sure), and Lucy made that up hoping to plant a fake memory by which I'd alibi her.

GN investigations are a thing (an infallible one at that) - why don't we ask them?

Quote:
-sammyluo convinced fmajluf7 to trust him, wheedled most of the GCSN's membership out of her (fmajluf7, if you're reading this from the graveyard, I chide you), and then convinced her so much that she let him in. But he didn't actually get any role information he was confident enough of to set a trap/slaughter with until he was let in on day 5.

"wheedled"? I'm offended. Also note the following:
-ajliu revealed to me as Angela on day 3, saying she had forgotten to stalk on days 2 and 3. achester, you are theoretically aware of this. I proxied this to the network.
-andytsai/Alex revealed to me as GNs on day 3 in hopes of getting let into the network. You also know this, theoretically. How would I not have had confident info to set traps/slaughters on?
-Today is day 7. It would only take 1 trap each on days 5,6,7, 1 slaughter each on days 6,7 to make today a 7-kill day anyway, if you were town and I were mafia.

Quote:
-sammyluo, ltchin, and majluf7 collectively convinced each other that I was sketchy. (Not sure whether this started with sammyluo; I find it plausible that ltchin never trusted me and started it, and sammyluo just bandwagoned.)

I asked fmajluf7 which of the network members were for/against having tsims make a vig kill and also which of the network members were against lynching dgrazian. My suspicion started almost entirely from the results of that.

Quote:
-The mafia poisoned sashacf so that Lucy could claim to have been poisoned simultaneously, and neither of them would look any sketchier.

Sure, this is something I would've believed until today. Finally, something reasonable.

----------------------------------------

I can spend time finding more holes in this, but in short, I read your post as a pile of hopelessly confused logic.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2016 10:05 pm 

Joined: Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:14 am
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Quote:
What the heck? achester, I'd like to take you up on this bet. How much are you willing to bet?


Technically nothing, since for whatever definition of "mostly right" we come up with, you could accept the bet iff I'd lose it, but until a moment ago I put 80% odds on it, and since Alex now claims that nastya made a kill, I guess I owe the Bayesian overlords that much.

I'll justify myself anyway, although that most likely scenario of mine is now clearly wrong.

Quote:
You're claiming that Lucy lied about the tsims investigation to implicate a fellow mafia? Or that mafia framed tsims, a mafia?


Nope, tsims publicly killed jakob.

Quote:
So mafia just didn't use their hitman?


Oh, right, I forgot about hitman. I'd've believed that this (or anything else) was a hitman kill. That also accounts for the next point about brunnerj.

Quote:
GN investigations are a thing (an infallible one at that) - why don't we ask them?


Yep, this just proved me wrong.

Code:
-ajliu revealed to me as Angela on day 3, saying she had forgotten to stalk on days 2 and 3. achester, you are theoretically aware of this. I proxied this to the network.


Nope, this was something you kept secret from the network (probably because you didn't trust me). I didn't know it until it was finally posted on day 5ish, and I didn't know you knew it until then.

Quote:
-andytsai/Alex revealed to me as GNs on day 3 in hopes of getting let into the network. You also know this, theoretically. How would I not have had confident info to set traps/slaughters on?
-Today is day 7. It would only take 1 trap each on days 5,6,7, 1 slaughter each on days 6,7 to make today a 7-kill day anyway, if you were town and I were mafia.


I didn't have an explanation for this. Maybe a wasted set-a-trap?


(Anyway, my most likely theory is now proven wrong. New theory coming.)


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2016 10:09 pm 

Joined: Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:14 am
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If Lucy is mafia and there are three mafia, I think the game is proven over because they win today's vote.

If there are only two mafia, the set is one of {sammyluo, nastya}, {sammyluo, Alex}, {csvoss, nastya}, and {me, nastya} since Alex and nastya are in a beef and the three remaining GCSN members are in a beef. I thought each of those cases was really unlikely, but I guess it has to be one of them?


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2016 10:10 pm 

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Not {me, Alex} because that'd take two conscriptions. Not {csvoss, Alex} because that'd take two conscriptions.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2016 10:16 pm 

Joined: Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:14 am
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Ok, the key thing I missed that made me rule out the correct case was that sammyluo didn't have to make any kills (I thought 5 kills required a scheme), so I thought his alibi from maxmurin proved them on the same team.

Well, I owe the Bayesian masters 80%.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2016 10:26 pm 

Joined: Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:14 am
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Oh, I also assumed that if sammyluo were bad, the GCSN couldn't've been catching people correctly, since I missed the fact that conscription could've been used early.

(Speaking of which: sorry, sammyluo! Getting conscripted late is miserable. But you did well enough as town before you were conscripted that you satisfied what was then your victory condition.)


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2016 10:35 pm 

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(And yes, sammyluo, you did indeed outlogic me.)


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2016 10:39 pm 

Joined: Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:14 am
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Also, Lucy and I were townies in a beef over her claim that I came downstairs to rinse something off when I'm pretty sure I hadn't. I'm still pretty sure I hadn't---either someone else did or my memory is faulty. That was quite an inter-townie beef.


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