Live Action Mafia

Bleck, I really OOG hope they don't conscript Sammy. That would make him miserable. Maybe it's a good thing I didn't tell the IC network about my conversations with him. I'm surprised Dgrazian didn't include fmajluf7 on the list; my assessment of the living players was that she was by far the best target, skill-wise. Though I guess that would have made 3/4 of the suspects for the day 1 kill mafia... Also, I feel bad about second-guessing myself for that death. I was totally right to hugely elevate the suspicions of the people at that party!


Also, I think Jakob is going to hurt for the fact that he has been at the seen of both murders.

I am excited about the innocence den. Hopefully people other than Pesto start posting. I wonder if they'll figure out that Angela (stalker 1) might be ajliu, rather than a dead person. Speaking of which, ajliu is going to be in a really tough position. She is literally the only person who was inactive for the purposes of "acting" towards revealing to me, so if Angela's stalking stops while ajliu is out of town and then starts back up again afterwards, mafia can probably put two and two together, especially Jakob. So it might actually be best play for ajliu to stop stalking and just pretend that Angela was Josh or ijc.

I am kind of sad that brunnerj seems to literally be using random generators for his priest list. It turns out he's the only priest in game, so avoiding collisions is irrelevant. And it turns out, just putting the above-average sketch people from my sketch list on a "sinners" list and the below-average people on a "saints" list would almost solve the game. I probably over-emphasized the importance of priests avoiding collisions and not just putting obvious choices on their lists. To be fair, I was trying really hard to not be put on a saints list, because I was never going to die and so I would be a waste of space.

I'm still sad that dgrazian didn't just conscript me.

Hey, I personally thought you were a great conscription target! That's why I didn't give you full information about the gay children stalkers network.

Agh, I want mafia to conscript someone just so I have an idea of what's going to happen in game. Currently, I can't judge whether or not people are making good decisions (e.g. the innocence den wanting to add fmajluf7 and isaacg) because of that. Though isaacg and fmajluf7 are definitely active, and will hopefully be able to use the network's info well (e.g. try lynching the people at the party from the day 1 kill who AREN'T in the network). I'm kind of hoping for Alex to get conscripted, just for the inevitable, "Hey, I'm a gay knight, and the only pair NOT in the network..."

Also, I'm now really glad that Jakob was the first one I interrogated about role stuff, preventing him from having good time to decide on a gay knight claim! Otherwise the fact that the innocence den is adding all the claimed gay knights would be problematic.

I also think dgrazian should've conscripted lilychen; he was strongly prevented from making a kill or spending much time on forums giving good advice in the first 2 days because she was around. Then again, what he should ACTUALLY do is mix between {kill Lily, conscript Lily, neither} with some probability assigned to each to maximize utility.

maxmurin used his first Group Investigation to ask about (Lucy, tsims, Alex, csvoss, jakob, isaacg) for the lilychen murder. I think this was a good use because the other murders had already been investigated by everyone else. People were saying Group Investigators should always go for the set of 3, but I think this was a clear use case where it was better not to investigate the first two days, and get something more powerful on the third day. (I also think 6 is more powerful than 3 here because there were a lot of people at the party plus some chance of someone sneaking in plus some chance of nobody turning up positive due to don kill, which means it seems roughly 50% likely that this investigation would get a yes.) He did in fact get a Yes.

This makes me happy because I was hoping GI would be a role that does more interesting things than just a set of 3 every other day. Thoughts?

--jamb

Ian, aok, and I were talking to some NPs in Clam (kmath, arkadiyf, ikdc) and we mentioned that Lily Chen died at the party. They virtually simultaneously said, "I bet it was Daniel Garzien." It's funny because it's true...

tbh I feel like dgrazian would look LESS sketchy if he turned up guilty for this kill because he's an obvious person to frame for killing Lily and there's no way dgrazian would kill Lily and not use MtP or don or something.

--jamb

Gah, fuck. I noticed that and thought it was majorly sketchy that someone would need to call him mid-LARP, and that it could have been a mafia call. But in all the rush (plus being in the middle of a LARP) I forgot to tell anyone.

Mafia did well with their frame (though some of it was luck). Out of Lucy, Dgrazian, ltchin, tsims, nguyenin, sashacf, Alex, csvoss, jakob, and isaacg, tsims was definitely the best frame target for them. He's the only townsperson who was both directly on Bonfire at the time of the kill and who doesn't have a provable role. Also RIP isaacg alibi-ing Dgrazian for that kill. Although Jakob could have just as easily done it.

People also are finding tsims mildly sketchy in general.

On another note, I'm glad that ajliu communicated her Angela dilemma and realized how obvious it will be if she starts stalking again. I'm interested in how she and Sammy resolve the problem. Also, Sammy has a lot of role info. :/ I also think from the GCSN's perspective, Sammy would be the best proxy choice. But I'm really worried doing that will make mafia conscript him, which I think would be bad for town and REALLY bad for Sammy personally.

Wow Alex, I guess this is what happens when you don't reveal to me. This lynch target will probably change though when nastya claims an investigation. Also, kudos to nastya for being sure to ACTUALLY visit the kill site for her investigations and actually send pms to gods! Its very easy to be lazy as a mafia mayor and not do this, but her struggle with god rules and her issues getting into Random to reach the kill site lend a lot of credibility to her, IMO.

Francesca is on fire right now.

Also, Lucy said last night that she was pretty sure the kill on Lily was a MtP and a frame, and that getting a positive result might make her LESS suspicious of someone. Which is spot on.

I'm not entirely sure that it's occurred to nastya that she could just *not* make investigations?

For example, I think it would have been optimal to use her day 1 investigation to check aok-->jfrisch (before the town did) and get in contact with him since if she investigates him positive he's almost provably SK; there was really no point using her investigation on the ijc kill since she could easily make up the result.

That said, I agree, she's doing an amazing job looking psychologically innocent.

--jamb

Nastya went to sleep before Josh died. Also, she didn't have an easy way to get into Random at the time. So I don't think she could have used her investigations much better there.

Oh, right, good points that I forgot.

--jamb

Are mafia going to use their poison / hitman? They REALLY should. They are pretty screwed if they don't use hitman since jakob and dgrazian are going to get stalked, and the GCS don't trust dgrazian so there's no way they're going to have the mafia be one of the stalkers, and nastya is don. I *guess* they can take a no kill day but that'd be sad too.

jamb

Well, now the mafia know they're getting stalked tomorrow, and will be able to prep a hitman. I really don't think town should've announced publicly who was getting stalked.

--jamb

Wow, they're considering having tsims kill jakob. This could be very swingy.

--jamb

Lol, 3 stalk targets submitted so far: nastya, Daniel Grazian, jakob

RIP mafia killing tomorrow, and if they don't kill tomorrow it'll be obvious they're being stalked. Hope they get online and submit hitman request like NOW...

They also haven't submitted a stalk target for tomorrow which is gonna look sketchy af.

-jamb

Mafia submitted their stalk target and hitman requests. They did not submit a Plant Evidence fast enough for it to apply to sammyluo's shoveling on jakob (we ruled they had 30 min to decide).

Gods are being somewhat lenient / helpful with Mafia right now because (a) they're in a sucky situation and (b) since nastya is the most active player and she's new, we feel we owe her the same mentorship we would give to a new serial killer.

--jamb

Mafia should totally have planted jakob as conscripted to make all the ICs/GNs let down their guards with each other. Anyway, too late now...

Also, maybe town should have nastya count the mafia, if one is dead then that's more solid proof than the shovel. And would pretty much save tsims. (nastya should do it either way, to make herself look better and use up the Count ability.)

That's super sketchy.... Hopefully they'll ignore it since she's new.

Wait, that actually happened! At least, the investigation nastya did was jakob->lilychen.

Yeah, as far as I can tell nastya is being legit about her investigations. Investigating Jakob for Lily once Lucy's investigator already gets a positive on tsims is the townie thing to do.

Oh shit wait, I re-checked and Alex totally did reveal to me. I just missed it... derp derp derp. This is what happens when I'm doing everything on a phone while trying to role-play in a LARP.

Gaaaah... I go online and see my own death (((

I didn't expect to have my body double be killed when I'm mafia..

BTW, has my (-> tsims's) shovel been redistributed?

Yeah, that was crazy stuff. Basically mafia need to shank Sammy ASAP because he is being incredibly pantsful. I had considered that tsims might make a kill before he got lynched, and that it might have been on you due to proximity / you sketchily having been by both kill sites. However, I completely forgot that being able to do so would prove that he couldn't have killed Lily without role info. If the GCSN proxy had been anyone except Sammy, I'm pretty sure that wouldn't have been arranged in time.

lol, ltchin thought I was sketchy for not sending her investigations. I sent her miranda's investigation early on in the day, and she didn't opst them. I poked her twice about it before it happened.

We should've planted evidence on me as conscritped group investigator


They're maybe gonna conscript sammy? this is probably good play, but sad because sammy hates being mafia and will be really unhappy about his situation, especially after putting effort into being town. Hopefully (in a town sense) he has a plan for if he gets conscritped it to be noticed somehow?

Yeah, I agree. Sammy is seeming more and more like the best conscription target, which is going to be terrible for Sammy IRL. It's really tragic. Hopefully mafia will just kill him instead of letting him suffer.