The Tale of Three Brothers: Info Dump Summary of ksedlar, Jakob, and jamb
Okay, I feel like people are sufficiently confused that we should just have a big dump of things that happened. Jackie and I (ksedlar) wrote this together.
Trust of Jakob and Jackie - I (ksedlar) trusted that Jakob and Jackie both did not start the game as mafia. I was not going to say how much I trusted them, but I made it pretty clear how much I trusted Jakob at the meeting, and I later mentioned to Tuan, Dgrazian, and Lily that I very strongly trusted Jackie. So I might as well tell everyone at this point.
As most people know, Jakob is very trustworthy for singlehandedly catching tsims and ltchin. There is no reason for a mafia to sacrifice a mafia and a serial killer. Although Jakob gained the result of us trusting him a lot, that’s not worth all that much for mafia. Sure, they wasted a taser and a vig kill, but that is not very significant overall. Hell, town doesn’t even trust him enough for us to not be willing to lynch him (due to conscription risk). Jakob also seems very psychologically trustworthy to me. Sammy agreed, and Sammy has been very good at reading Jakob in the past. Plus Jakob is currently using his invisibility cloak to be out of town, and thus an even worse conscript target.
Jackie is also very trustworthy to me. Not only has she spent an incredible amount of time on doing town stuff in game, but she played in such a way that made ltchin very sketchy. At 7:30 pm on day 1 (notably before Jakob even contacted his NP to learn about the tsims/ltchin interaction), Jackie and I were going to fake-kill ltchin, as mentioned in our previous post. This had been the plan all day, and Jackie had plenty of warning. We also agreed that if we did this to a mafia, they would be 1. Extremely confused 2. Not scared 3. Try to thwart the plan. Ltchin did all three of these things, and basically looked as sketchy as possible. I don’t see why a mafia Jackie would not warn her. Furthermore, it was initially Jackie, not me, who was going to fake-kill ltchin (Jackie got nervous/stressed that ltchin would be grumpy and upset with her, and suggested I do it instead). That would have been a great opportunity for a mafia Jackie; she could say that ltchin acted townie-ish (scared), or at least neutral. Instead, I ended up doing it, and I thus reached the conclusion that ltchin was a giant sketchball. There would be no reason for mafia Jackie to throw ltchin under the bus like that, when ltchin didn’t have any suspicion on her at the time.
So, due to my mafia count below, I would be willing to bet multiple games that Jakob and Jackie were town as of 7:30 pm day 3, when I counted the mafia. That said, either could get conscripted.
Jackie trusts ksedlar - ksedlar has been spending a lot of time doing town related stuff. She’s given good advice in every case and seemed psychologically good in every interaction, of which there have been many, and also seemed happy. Also, she called ltchin out as sketchy on day 1, before jakob contacted the NP (as ksedlar says). Granted, she could’ve been conscripted, but she’d probably be less happy, and jamb thinks she’s worth trusting at least until we have any evidence to the contrary (other than “aaaah why is ksedlar still alive”). Also, most plots / information that jamb let ksedlar or jakob know, apparently did not get back to the mafia.
Lily was investigated - this is because Jakob’s NP (nastya) told us an Asian girl killed regirock. She may have been joking / mafia aligned; also she lives on Beast with ajliu and may have heard about earlier shenanigans. Lily investigated negative (claim by ksedlar)
Lucy shoveled as investigator - Lucy’s death implicates dylanhen. First, someone knew either her or Sammy’s role, or else scheme was used or a serial kill or vig kill happened (the latter three unlikely since we believe ltchin killed both). It’s more likely that Sammy was not a trap kill, because at that point we thought ltchin was SK and so she probably wasn’t planning on kamikaze killing later that day. Also because Sammy notoriously trolls people with his role info. So, it seemed likely that Lucy’s role was known. We wanted to see if Lucy had a role that would have revealed to someone else. Dylanhen had been proxying for someone who investigated day 1 (which means they made it to the kill scene in Random that night before day end) but not day 2 or day 3, which made them likely dead, and explained how role info would’ve been known. So we used the resurrection stone to shovel Lucy; lo and behold, she was investigator. Dylanhen had more than 24 hours and never revealed that his investigator was dead. Jackie did not even know about the shoveling before it already happened; only ksedlar and Jakob did, which makes plant evidence unlikely.
Count the Mafia - Before I (ksedlar) was impeached I used the elder wand to count the mafia and got 2. This was at 19:30 or so. Thus, either conscription had not been used at that point, ksedlar is lying, or a mafia killed another mafia. We refrained from announcing the CTM immediately, because doing so might encourage mafia to conscript immediately thereafter.
Plan to tase dylanhen - We thought it was necessary to tase dylan since we had to lynch tsims tonight. We planned the tasing secretly so that dylanhen wouldn’t be able to kamikaze. After tasing we would reveal our suspicions of dylanhen, giving plenty of time for a defense. (Dylanhen is now being stalked, which is almost(?) as good as tasing.) We got Tuan elected PO and were planning to have him meet jamb, dylanhen, and brunnerj at the van. Jamb knew about this, as did jakob and obviously Tuan.
Panic following tsims’s death - Jakob, Dgrazian, Lily and I hung out trying to figure out which of brunnerj and dylanhen we wanted to lynch. I decided to do the former because: Lynching brunnerj and being wrong was much less bad than the other way around; I’m fairly confident that Jayson didn’t get conscripted in the 4 hours after my count, so if lynching brunnerj was wrong, then we know 2 mafia (this does use “Jackie started good and ltchin wouldn’t have known Lucy’s location from random luck” as a premise, but that seems like an okay assumption). Brunnerj’s role was way less useful. If he’s town, then he just dies at the end of tomorrow, and mafia know that (though he gets one investigation). Jayson and Dylan, though they could be easily trapped, could at least get gay knight investigations out of it, and mafia would have. Dylanhen seemed super confused and was switching between lots of thoughts. I thought a mafia dylanhen would have prioritized getting someone other than himself lynched, which would have meant fighting against brunnerj.
Impeaching me (ksedlar) - I impeached myself because I really wanted to extend day to figure out stuff more. I would like to be reelected, because the elder wand will not respond correctly to any hand other than my own. People had filled out an impeachment petition for me earlier, which I held onto after its completion.
brunnerj claimed activated desperado - which made it not that much of a sacrifice to lynch him, especially since his role was known to enough people that it was highly unlikely any mafia would try to kill him, making this effectively a No Lynch. Dylanhen seems to have interpreted this as a reason not to lynch him. That could either be as a townie playing poorly (not considering that letting a mafia live 2 days longer is a bad idea) or as a mafia wanting a better lynch target (to kill a townie who wasn’t going to die soon anyway). Brunnerj told Dylanhen his role, then Dylanhen texted me this info. I was a bit confused as to why he was telling me this, but he eventually said, “You’re jakob, right?” To which I replied, “No, I’m ksedlar.” (Note it’s a bit weird that he intended to give this info to jakob, and yet thought jakob was the best lynch target.)
Brunnerj pmed me “nguyenin didn’t kill regirock” at 22:35 - I didn’t notice this for a while due to my phone being near death. The investigation result means roughly nothing, because Jakob already confirmed with NPs that nguyenin didn’t go to 8.044. This might have only been said at the meeting though. However, it does mean that Josh at least actually committed to telling me a single investigation result on day 3 (basically locking into a claim of desperado who would die soon). This makes him look a lot less sketchy, and I’m unsure what I would have done if I would have noticed this earlier.
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