Live Action Mafia

The Tale of Three Brothers: Info Dump Summary of ksedlar, Jakob, and jamb

Okay, I feel like people are sufficiently confused that we should just have a big dump of things that happened. Jackie and I (ksedlar) wrote this together.

Trust of Jakob and Jackie - I (ksedlar) trusted that Jakob and Jackie both did not start the game as mafia. I was not going to say how much I trusted them, but I made it pretty clear how much I trusted Jakob at the meeting, and I later mentioned to Tuan, Dgrazian, and Lily that I very strongly trusted Jackie. So I might as well tell everyone at this point.

As most people know, Jakob is very trustworthy for singlehandedly catching tsims and ltchin. There is no reason for a mafia to sacrifice a mafia and a serial killer. Although Jakob gained the result of us trusting him a lot, that’s not worth all that much for mafia. Sure, they wasted a taser and a vig kill, but that is not very significant overall. Hell, town doesn’t even trust him enough for us to not be willing to lynch him (due to conscription risk). Jakob also seems very psychologically trustworthy to me. Sammy agreed, and Sammy has been very good at reading Jakob in the past. Plus Jakob is currently using his invisibility cloak to be out of town, and thus an even worse conscript target.

Jackie is also very trustworthy to me. Not only has she spent an incredible amount of time on doing town stuff in game, but she played in such a way that made ltchin very sketchy. At 7:30 pm on day 1 (notably before Jakob even contacted his NP to learn about the tsims/ltchin interaction), Jackie and I were going to fake-kill ltchin, as mentioned in our previous post. This had been the plan all day, and Jackie had plenty of warning. We also agreed that if we did this to a mafia, they would be 1. Extremely confused 2. Not scared 3. Try to thwart the plan. Ltchin did all three of these things, and basically looked as sketchy as possible. I don’t see why a mafia Jackie would not warn her. Furthermore, it was initially Jackie, not me, who was going to fake-kill ltchin (Jackie got nervous/stressed that ltchin would be grumpy and upset with her, and suggested I do it instead). That would have been a great opportunity for a mafia Jackie; she could say that ltchin acted townie-ish (scared), or at least neutral. Instead, I ended up doing it, and I thus reached the conclusion that ltchin was a giant sketchball. There would be no reason for mafia Jackie to throw ltchin under the bus like that, when ltchin didn’t have any suspicion on her at the time.

So, due to my mafia count below, I would be willing to bet multiple games that Jakob and Jackie were town as of 7:30 pm day 3, when I counted the mafia. That said, either could get conscripted.

Jackie trusts ksedlar - ksedlar has been spending a lot of time doing town related stuff. She’s given good advice in every case and seemed psychologically good in every interaction, of which there have been many, and also seemed happy. Also, she called ltchin out as sketchy on day 1, before jakob contacted the NP (as ksedlar says). Granted, she could’ve been conscripted, but she’d probably be less happy, and jamb thinks she’s worth trusting at least until we have any evidence to the contrary (other than “aaaah why is ksedlar still alive”). Also, most plots / information that jamb let ksedlar or jakob know, apparently did not get back to the mafia.

Lily was investigated - this is because Jakob’s NP (nastya) told us an Asian girl killed regirock. She may have been joking / mafia aligned; also she lives on Beast with ajliu and may have heard about earlier shenanigans. Lily investigated negative (claim by ksedlar)

Lucy shoveled as investigator - Lucy’s death implicates dylanhen. First, someone knew either her or Sammy’s role, or else scheme was used or a serial kill or vig kill happened (the latter three unlikely since we believe ltchin killed both). It’s more likely that Sammy was not a trap kill, because at that point we thought ltchin was SK and so she probably wasn’t planning on kamikaze killing later that day. Also because Sammy notoriously trolls people with his role info. So, it seemed likely that Lucy’s role was known. We wanted to see if Lucy had a role that would have revealed to someone else. Dylanhen had been proxying for someone who investigated day 1 (which means they made it to the kill scene in Random that night before day end) but not day 2 or day 3, which made them likely dead, and explained how role info would’ve been known. So we used the resurrection stone to shovel Lucy; lo and behold, she was investigator. Dylanhen had more than 24 hours and never revealed that his investigator was dead. Jackie did not even know about the shoveling before it already happened; only ksedlar and Jakob did, which makes plant evidence unlikely.

Count the Mafia - Before I (ksedlar) was impeached I used the elder wand to count the mafia and got 2. This was at 19:30 or so. Thus, either conscription had not been used at that point, ksedlar is lying, or a mafia killed another mafia. We refrained from announcing the CTM immediately, because doing so might encourage mafia to conscript immediately thereafter.

Plan to tase dylanhen - We thought it was necessary to tase dylan since we had to lynch tsims tonight. We planned the tasing secretly so that dylanhen wouldn’t be able to kamikaze. After tasing we would reveal our suspicions of dylanhen, giving plenty of time for a defense. (Dylanhen is now being stalked, which is almost(?) as good as tasing.) We got Tuan elected PO and were planning to have him meet jamb, dylanhen, and brunnerj at the van. Jamb knew about this, as did jakob and obviously Tuan.

Panic following tsims’s death - Jakob, Dgrazian, Lily and I hung out trying to figure out which of brunnerj and dylanhen we wanted to lynch. I decided to do the former because:
Lynching brunnerj and being wrong was much less bad than the other way around; I’m fairly confident that Jayson didn’t get conscripted in the 4 hours after my count, so if lynching brunnerj was wrong, then we know 2 mafia (this does use “Jackie started good and ltchin wouldn’t have known Lucy’s location from random luck” as a premise, but that seems like an okay assumption).
Brunnerj’s role was way less useful. If he’s town, then he just dies at the end of tomorrow, and mafia know that (though he gets one investigation). Jayson and Dylan, though they could be easily trapped, could at least get gay knight investigations out of it, and mafia would have.
Dylanhen seemed super confused and was switching between lots of thoughts. I thought a mafia dylanhen would have prioritized getting someone other than himself lynched, which would have meant fighting against brunnerj.

Impeaching me (ksedlar) - I impeached myself because I really wanted to extend day to figure out stuff more. I would like to be reelected, because the elder wand will not respond correctly to any hand other than my own. People had filled out an impeachment petition for me earlier, which I held onto after its completion.

brunnerj claimed activated desperado - which made it not that much of a sacrifice to lynch him, especially since his role was known to enough people that it was highly unlikely any mafia would try to kill him, making this effectively a No Lynch. Dylanhen seems to have interpreted this as a reason not to lynch him. That could either be as a townie playing poorly (not considering that letting a mafia live 2 days longer is a bad idea) or as a mafia wanting a better lynch target (to kill a townie who wasn’t going to die soon anyway). Brunnerj told Dylanhen his role, then Dylanhen texted me this info. I was a bit confused as to why he was telling me this, but he eventually said, “You’re jakob, right?” To which I replied, “No, I’m ksedlar.” (Note it’s a bit weird that he intended to give this info to jakob, and yet thought jakob was the best lynch target.)

Brunnerj pmed me “nguyenin didn’t kill regirock” at 22:35 - I didn’t notice this for a while due to my phone being near death. The investigation result means roughly nothing, because Jakob already confirmed with NPs that nguyenin didn’t go to 8.044. This might have only been said at the meeting though. However, it does mean that Josh at least actually committed to telling me a single investigation result on day 3 (basically locking into a claim of desperado who would die soon). This makes him look a lot less sketchy, and I’m unsure what I would have done if I would have noticed this earlier.

Thanks for the thorough write-up. I still want to point out that all the above is consistent with Jakob being mafia. The more I think about it, the more I'm convincing myself that this is the simplest explanation for everything that's happened.

It's not too much of a sacrifice for mafia Jakob to throw ltchin and Tsims under the bus (in exchange for a couple of kamikaze kills, wasted vig kill, wasted taser, etc) especially if he could have reasonably expected you (ksedlar) to ask around and eventually find out about the disarm shenanigans from NPs. I think given your track record of questioning NPs, and given that you waited for but didn't find Tsims in a class that he usually goes to, it would be reasonable for him to assume that you'd eventually ask around and figure out that Tsims and ltchin are scum. By revealing this and taking credit for the NP questioning, mafia Jakob could confuse things enough (I.e. which one was serial killer and which one was mafia, and ajliu vs ltchin for the Asian girl) to delay the inevitable by a day, get a bunch of unscrutinized kills in, and gain town's trust.

I can also totally imagine mafia Jakob trapping and killing Tsims. He was in the courtyard at the time and could easily have done it. If this was a vigilante kill, it was probably a bad one. As a move by mafia to sow confusion and their town into a panic, it worked beautifully.

If anyone could pull off a scheme like this as mafia, it would be Jakob.

I've also been told by jaysonl that Jakob also knew about Lucy's group going to the kill location where ltchin was waiting. Jakob denied this last night. I'd like to hear some more clarification of this claim by Jayson.

Brunnerj told me last he he had pmed this to ksedlar, and ksdelar said she hadn't gotten it, despite having enough phone battery to be texting me and brunnerj saying it was in sent messages, not his outbox.

At first I thought I was texting jaysonl when I revealed brunnerj's role claim; after he told me it wasn't him my next guess was jakob.

Brunnerj's pm was not usefully titled; it was a reply to a previous message. I may have clicked on the pms link without reading them. Regardless, Lily, Dgrazian, and Jakob can confirm that I was not reading over forums, and was just asking Jakob what people had been saying on town square. Furthermore, if I had actually noticed the content of the message, I don't know what the point of lying about it to Dylan would have been.

Does anyone outside of {jamb, ksedlar, jakob} have any reason to trust any of them?

"Class he usually goes to" was a thing Jakob knew, but I had no way of knowing. After I heard about the claim, I DID check with NPs (about whether tsims was in class, because that seemed unbelievable). One NP didn't go to class, one NP didn't even notice whether tsims was there, and one NP noticed that tsims was in class, but did not notice ltchin around (this NP knew and would have recognized ltchin). So it clearly wasn't even the case that the tsims/ltchin interaction was visible to the class as a whole, and certainly not to NPs who lived in Random (whom would be the ones I would ask, and whom ltchin would know). It is the case that ltchin knew that I thought she was sketchy before Jakob's thing; however me thinking someone is sketchy != being close to a lynch, and I believe I also mentioned in front of ltchin that Jackie and I had done our fake-kill plot to 8 different players, with two multi-attempts. So ltchin would have known that tsims had no reason to stand out in my mind.

The things that went wrong in Jakob's plan (taser, vig kill, leak of Sammy's role) would have been hard to plan. Jakob initially wanted to tase ajliu; however, he was having a hard time acquiring a taser. There was no way for a mafia Jakob to know that a vigilante (Sammy) would have been available for killing ajliu, out of the people he talked to about this, and no way to know Sammy wouldn't want to wait for longer. So he couldn't have planned in advance for the loss of anything but the taser. Also, the confusion between ajliu and ltchin was reasonable, if hasty. I myself heard the description, "short Asian girl with dyed hair and glasses" from Lucy after ajliu's death, and I was initially confused about how that could match anyone in game; the closest were ajliu, who I thought didn't wear glasses (she sometimes does), and ltchin, who I had forgotten had dyed hair. Lucy and I independently came to the conclusion that it was ltchin when we mentioned this in front of NP kmath, who said, "No, ltchin definitely has dyed hair."

Also, by the way, the only mafia-aligned players that we have definitely caught were ltchin and tsims. Jakob has the majority of the responsibility for both of their catches. So if Jakob started game mafia aligned, HE LITERALLY DID MORE FOR TOWN THAN THE ENTIRE TOWN COMBINED. I know conspiracy theories are fun and all, but really? If it's mid-late game and a mafia has done more to help the town than every single person in the town combined, then this entire game is a farce.

@ksedlar: conscription exists. Jakob is a large conscription target. You yourself counted that there were two mafia left, not three not that long ago. It's incredibly possible that he was conscripted recently. Thus, the argument that he's good for town doesn't imply he's not now mafia.

He also precommitted to the lynch today, partially for the reason of late conscription. I agree that if there's an actually suspicious person, we should lynch them. Whom do you suggest?

Dylanhen is such. a. sketch. ball.

Tuesday night I was at EC with Miranda, Jakob, and dylanhen. Jakob was very insistent I should give him the tazer because they knew who the mafia who killed aok is. I delayed, asked for further justification, and tried to consult dylanhen. Over the course of this discussion Jakob claimed Sammy and jamb supported the plan. I checked in with jamb who agreed. During this time Jakob definitely noted at least once dylanhen and I consulting, giving indication we trusted each other. Just before I aquired and resolved to give Jakob the tazer, he disappeared exactly in the window the susposid vigilante kill happened. When he returned he told me he screwed up and now the killer was obviously tsims so he needed my tazer. I ended up revealing that dylanhen had the tazer. This together is some evidence he might have inferred dylanhen and I were GN.

The day after, Jakob apparently tried to get the other tazer to taze and then accuse dylanhen. dylanhen was accused on the forms hastily shortly before the day ended while dylanhen was at an event. This left very little time to respond and almost resulted in a panicked lynching. He then also let the mob to try to lynch brunnerj instead of jamb, or himself as promised.

To be clear, I was not promising to be lynched the night after we dealt with all the mafia but on day 4. I told sammy this on day 1 or 2, and he said he told others, so if this becomes a point of contention, someone should confirm that.

I can confirm that I saw jaysonl and dylanhen conferring several times during that period. If I'm mafia and I inferred you were GNs, I guess this is a good way to sow chaos? Not sure though

I'm a bit confused here - why would you say a mafia would want to get into a beef with someone they believe to have a provable role?

So you still think you should be lynched tonight?

is anyone apart from dylanhen seriously proposing jakob as a lynch target?

I'm doing numbers right now about various lynch targets, but I'm hesitant to not be lynched today unless I have compelling evidence to lynch someone else. That said, if it's disastrous for town, I think I should not be lynched.

Jakob, am I reading you right in thinking you think you should be lynched? Maybe we can all swear an unbreakable vow to lynch jakob tomorrow, then lynch dylanhen tonight?

Please no unbreakable vows. I don't want to permanently give up a small part of my magical power. (Read: I think we should have the flexibility to lynch someone else if there's an outed mafia tomorrow.) But I'd be okay with this in principle.

I want to think some more before saying I think I should be lynched. The prospect of not being lynched makes me fear for the metagame. You all saw what happened with sammy last game. This game is smaller, but still.

I was probably not conscripted recently because it's not clear if I'm gonna be lynched. That said, maybe the mafia anticipated this and conscripted me.

I no longer have any role info. I don't have enough time to do as much dictation as I did before.

BTW I'm extremely willing to be lynched tomorrow no matter what if I'm not lynched tonight.