Live Action Mafia
http://mafia.mit.edu/

Day 3 Discussion
http://mafia.mit.edu/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=365		 Page 1 of 3
Author:  Jacobian [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 12:11 am ]
Post subject:  Day 3 Discussion
And the suspense continues....
Author:  lizrita [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 12:16 am ]
Post subject: 
Mafia, y u no kill?
Conscription or derpiness?
Author:  Jacobian [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 12:16 am ]
Post subject: 
It's always fun to be accused of Mafianess because i had to brush my teeth... Really Alex?
Author:  lizrita [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 12:27 am ]
Post subject: 
I don't know about Alex, yo. If I were mafia, Alex and Daniel would be the first on my hitlist because they're infamously hardcore mafia players. This makes me suspect they are mafia (one or both of them?).

This also might just be me being paranoid. I don't have any intent to vote for them any time super soon, but they're sketchy-ish.
Author:  Alex [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 1:24 am ]
Post subject: 
Jacobian wrote:
It's always fun to be accused of Mafianess because i had to brush my teeth... Really Alex?

Huh? What are you talking about?
Author:  Jacobian [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 1:26 am ]
Post subject: 
Right after you got here, way before Dalton showed up. Oh well I suppose.
Author:  bowler [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 1:40 am ]
Post subject: 
is it reasonable to suggest that random has a relatively low concentration of mafiosi? i find it interesting that rob (assuming he is the guilty party) schlepped all the way from macG to do the job
Author:  Daniel Grazian [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 2:44 am ]
Post subject: 
A possible touch to the contrary. 15 minutes ago, someone briefly knocked on my door, and after a few seconds, ran down the hall. Seems like a possible kill attempt. I wouldn't read too much into it, because I didn't look out until a minute later, and after very cautiously walking around Random for a couple minutes and not seeing anybody in the game came back to my room.

Anyway, if someone makes a kill in Random in the near future, it is almost certainly the same unknown person.

I do agree with the previous point, that Rob making the kill in random + the lack of a kill yesterday (which granted could be explained by conscription, which I believe to virtually always be a poor mafia play this early in the game) suggests a weak mafia presence in Random. I have no problem with that!

I would recommend not reading too much into this post. I'd mainly be interested in knowing whether anybody else had a similar experience.
Author:  VivianLee [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 5:34 am ]
Post subject: 
lizrita wrote:
If I were mafia, Alex and Daniel would be the first on my hitlist because they're infamously hardcore mafia players. This makes me suspect they are mafia (one or both of them?).

Cup-in-front-of-you situation. If I were Mafia, I would keep them around to garner more suspicion around them. The fact that they have been privately speaking - whether townspeople strategy or not - can be easily twisted and used by mafia. The fact that they are good players means that both would be great targets for conscription (although arguably, they might already have a signal ready should that happen). I don't think the fact that "they're good players and still alive" is justifiable reason to suspect they are mafia. Obviously we can't say for sure if they're innocent either, but I think we need to think more clearly before using virtue of play level as a reason to finger-point.
Author:  VivianLee [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 5:40 am ]
Post subject: 
Also, I want to delve more into this:

Lydia Krasilnikova wrote:
... Alex and dgrazian (and Josh and Dalton next) are my top suspects for mafia based on their behavior (Alex asking me for my item before I even knew my role, Alex and dgrazian being so close, and today dgrazian pushing me to give my item to one of those four) ...

I want to know if anyone else was asked for items by either Alex or Dgrazian (for the record, I was not). Sorry, I'm just getting flashbacks to last IAP and the one before that, where items were very quickly funnelled into less-than-optimal hands very early on in the game. I want to know the reasoning for moving Lydia's item (M/R, right?)
Author:  VivianLee [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 5:50 am ]
Post subject: 
Also, forgot to show you guys this:

Quote:
Rob Learsch
hey vivian this is freshmanrob on the live action mafia game! Looking forward to a great game
Vivian Lee
Thanks for adding! :) looking forward to this too~
Rob Learsch
I'd be down for some scheming/discussion tomorrow night, let me know where/when you want to meet


Not sure if anyone else got similar messages. This was right after the roles were PMed out, I believe (FB messages don't have timestamps?!), so I'm not sure if it was a legit "let's discuss" invitation or a ploy to get me to reveal myself in person, possibly alone. We're also two of the few non-Randomites, if that means anything?
Author:  Andrew [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 6:27 am ]
Post subject: 
Can we get a comment from Rob on the above? It does sound mildly suspicious, especially because Vivian started with a Fake ID (which would make her a natural Mafia target) but I'd rather hear both sides first.
Author:  Andrew [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 6:38 am ]
Post subject: 
Never mind the above, I'm a twit and forgot he'd been lynched.
Author:  VivianLee [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 6:46 am ]
Post subject: 
Just realized that posting that retroactively (forgot he had already been lynched) makes me seem extremely suspicious >.<;; I can provide screenshots of the convo if authenticity is questioned.
Author:  Josh Frisch [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 9:22 am ]
Post subject: 
I can confirm that they wanted items (for themselves or to give to other people) I can also confirm that they both gave very plausible sounding for their desire for said items. Also Dgrazian+alex both agreed relatively publicly to destroy the search warrants/fake IDS which are the two items capable of supporting of aiding the mafia (as opposed to the town).
Author:  Josh Frisch [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 9:31 am ]
Post subject: 
As for me being suspicious, I want to publicly claim Townsperson (which, I'm sure, comes as a great surprise to everyone involved). Fortunately I lack the ability to lie convincingly as has been witnessed by Ben Kraft, Dalton, Crew, Dgrazian, Jacobi, and probably a few others. I've played a fairly active role in live discussions, HAVE had private conversations with multiple people regarding the game, and all around feel like I have been playing in an inherently non-sketchy manner. As a result of discussions I HAVE various knowledge at my disposal, I try to make as much of it as I can public, the rest I don't feel like publicly confirming is worthwhile (for example, I am very familiar with Dgrazian's inspector and can very much confirm that he has been making the results as stated.
Author:  AustinFathman [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 10:35 am ]
Post subject: 
post of guilt! Lynch Josh! :D
Author:  Jacobian [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 11:02 am ]
Post subject: 
Austin, here are a few serious points for you. More people (probably all of them Randomites, but still) trust Josh than are possible to be mafia. Most of us do not want him lynched, and if he were conscripted we would certainly know within the day. No offense Josh, but you're a terrible liar.
Author:  krue [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 11:40 am ]
Post subject: 
My name is Krue. Not Crew. Not Krew. Not any other variation thereof. Sorry for bitching, I've just had something like 3 different people misspell it in the last half hour.

Anyway, on more relevant topics. I really don't think Jfrish is mafia. As Jacobi stated, he can't lie well. At all.

As for yesterday, I'm not positive one way or the other, but I feel like no-kill is a slightly more likely possibility than conscription. It's usually a bad idea to conscript so early, and considering how late the kill was on day 1 and the fact that we're pretty sure we lynched the mafia member who was actually active enough to do something on day 1, the mafia probably aren't all that organized.

Anyway, that's my two cents on what's been going on. Again, no computer, guild game starting today, etc, so I'm not really going to be on the forum much for the rest of today. Not entirely sure who I'm going to vote for, so I'm going to wait on that until later.
Author:  Daniel Grazian [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 12:33 pm ]
Post subject: 
Josh brought up a point that I have discussed with probably a dozen people but never posted publicly (sorry):

I believe the search warrants and fake ID's should be destroyed. They nearly inevitably funnel into the mafia's hands by endgame, and that is when they are by far the most powerful. I wanted to perform an "items bonfire" when we met for Table Mafia yesterday, but unfortunately none of the people with the fake IDs came.

So this is my (very very strong) suggestion. Anyone with a Fake ID should destroy it in front of at least three witnesses (this can be done by having the Fake ID physrep on your person and simply declaring that it is destroyed.) All witnesses should post to confirm the destruction of the Fake ID. crockct, kezi, and Vivian Lee started with the Fake IDs. I know crockct and Vivian will read this message, but kezi has been completely inactive in the game. If anyone knows him/her, please get this information to him/her.

The search warrants are probably gone already. Around a dozen of us witnessed Wings use hers on freshmanrob after he killed Tom. The search came up negative, suggesting that rob destroyed it or gave it away before he could be searched or Tom gave it away before he was murdered. If you're reading this and Tom gave you his search warrant before he was murdered please follow the same procedure described for the Fake ID's.

If anyone has any objections to this plan, please post them. I think it should be pretty non-controversial, though.
Author:  bowler [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 1:34 pm ]
Post subject: 
i know kezi pretty well - i'll point her to this
Author:  Andrew [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 1:44 pm ]
Post subject: 
Is it legal to do that with items? If it is, I'm all behind it, but that seems like the sort of thing we ought to check.
Author:  Josh Frisch [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 1:58 pm ]
Post subject: 
Yes, this was checked with moderators to confirm that it is legal.
Author:  c-rock [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 2:16 pm ]
Post subject: 
I don't see how/why the townspeople benefit from destroying the items. Explain further, please?
Author:  Daniel Grazian [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 2:29 pm ]
Post subject: 
Sure. At this point in the game, the lynch decisions are usually pretty well determined in advance, and it is unlikely that the user of the fake ID will be able to use the ID to sway the result from a townsperson to a mafia member. This would require both that the vote were that close and that the fake-ID user judged correctly where others failed.

On the other hand, near the end of the game, the Fake ID's can be quite powerful, since they actually make up a substantial proportion of the total vote. This wouldn't necessarily be a problem, except that by the end of the game, the fake ID's are much more likely to be controlled by the mafia than by the town. Once the mafia control a fake ID they keep it for the rest of the game, and the chances are any given Fake ID will be taken by the mafia at some point in the game either by murdering it's holder or by receiving it from someone who is lynched. Basically, the mafia are a Fake ID sink.

In short, the Fake ID's are of only marginal use to the town, but they lower the threshold required for a mafia win. They are much better off destroyed.
Author:  Andrew [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 2:35 pm ]
Post subject: 
When the Mafia kill someone, they take that person's items. This means that items can move from the townspeople to the Mafia much more readily than they can move the other way, which means that (especially towards the end of game) the Mafia tend to have most of the items.

Additionally, Fake IDs tend to benefit the Mafia more than the townsfolk -- they let them cast votes anonymously without fear of reprisal, and the Mafia are working from perfect information and know how best to cast their votes whereas the townsfolk do not. So, overall, these items cause more harm in Mafia hands then they cause good in our hands, AND we should expect them to wind up in Mafia hands as the game progresses. This means that they overall hurt us, and destroying them now is helpful.

I'm not so sure about destroying the Search Warrant, because that can work either way -- in our hands it lets us search a known or suspected Mafia before lynching him, in their hands it lets them try to flush out a medipack before making a kill -- but destroying the Fake IDs really does seem like the way to go.

(Personally, I'm still surprised destroying them was allowed. Three cheers for outside-the-box thinking!)
Author:  Andrew [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 2:37 pm ]
Post subject: 
Ah, ninja'd by dgrazian! (Plus his argument is clearer than mine. Curse you!)

With that said, I would like to raise the issue of the remaining 1 (I think) Search Warrant. Is destroying it in our interests?
Author:  c-rock [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 2:37 pm ]
Post subject: 
In short, the Fake ID's are of only marginal use to the town, but they lower the threshold required for a mafia win. They are much better off destroyed.

They lower the threshold required for a mafia win? *goes to check rules*
Author:  Daniel Grazian [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 2:46 pm ]
Post subject: 
Destroying the remaining search warrant is most definitely in our interest, except that I suspect that it is already destroyed and that if it isn't it is in mafia hands.
Author:  AustinFathman [ Fri Jan 20, 2012 2:55 pm ]
Post subject: 
Ok, well sounds like Jacobian and Josh are free to go. No longer shall I try to lynch them. However.... let's vote the no voters off the island! Caroline sounds like a good target :D
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