Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
It is currently Tue Jun 27, 2017 8:45 am

All times are UTC - 5 hours




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 5 posts ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: Day 3 Planning
PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 11:53 pm 
User avatar

Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:16 pm
Posts: 3
Location: EC - Floorpi
1. Kills

sammyluo wrote:
The main opportunity will probably be the lead-up to ksedlar's party. Maybe I could wander near random for a bit, kill the first player I see, go away, and come back later. I'm historically bad at killing, so things are likely not to work well, but that's okay I guess.

If this doesn't work, I could always just kill at the party sometime before day end.

2. Not letting mafia (or town town) steamroll
So, jamb and Lucy are almost certainly either OGN or mafia together (or *maybe* IGN but then that leaves the mysterious abundance of Outvestigations unexplained). In the former case, I can trust jamb's mafia count tomorrow, and town is probably doing pretty well. In the latter case, I can't, and mafia are probably doing pretty well.

I can either count the mafia myself right before killing someone publicly, or right after killing someone (possibly privately). The former checks jamb for lying directly, the latter checks some combination of my target's and jamb's mafianess.

Possible universes (likely incomplete rambling):
-jamb reports 0 (outer) mafia.
--> jamb is lying, kill her publicly.

-jamb reports 1 mafia.
--jamb is town: there's 1 mafia left, I need to start killing off town -> can kill jamb (probably privately) Also, in this case achester, aok, brunnerj are all mafia...
--jamb is mafia: jamb and Lucy are mafia at least, jamb is lying, at least 2 v. 5 -> can kill jamb (can publicly)

-jamb reports 2 mafia.
--jamb is town: tricky situation. killing town makes it pretty mafia-favored, but maybe okay. Lucy also dying is not desirable though. Maybe kill a random different person. I need to get my name on some tasers.
--jamb is mafia: jamb and Lucy are mafia at least, jamb is lying, at least 2 v. 5 -> can kill jamb (can publicly).

-jamb reports 3 mafia.
--jamb is town: tricky situation. Need to kill mafia, probably anyone other than jamb and Lucy is fine.
--jamb is mafia: jamb and Lucy are mafia at least, jamb is lying, at least 2 v. 5 -> can kill jamb (can publicly)

-jamb reports 4 mafia.
--jamb is town: Lucy is also town, I am town. We need to kill mafia, i.e. basically anyone else who's not line (unless line is mafia-GN, which would be very serendipitous but not surprising. actually, line might just be plain mafia but then so is achester and this case doesn't happen). Also, the only people who could have killed lukesci are jamb, ksedlar, Lucy, unless isaac or line/jordan sneaked in, so in particular ksedlar is bad.
--jamb is mafia: jamb and Lucy are mafia at least, jamb is lying, at least 2 v. 5 -> can kill jamb (can publicly)

In any case, if jamb reports a result, and I kill her and check again, I should expect the same result if she's town, 1 fewer if she's mafia and truthful, and else something weird. This is safe to do unless she reports a high number, in which case I might want to instead just directly check her by recounting.

--------------------
Actually, now that I think about it, having a two-way fake negative is pretty dumb if jamb and Lucy are actually mafia. It's possible that the innocence on Lucy was actual (say, a stalker, or one of aok, achester, lilychen). But why would they actually claim to dgrazian if they were OGNs? Also, 4 OGNs among 9 townies is pretty weird (it means either exactly 1 of each other outer role, or 0 of some outer roles). But why would they fake negative each other if they were IGNs? None of this seems to make sense.

Maybe both mafia, and one-way fake investigation is the most likely answer.

_________________
...But then again, I'm... Oops. Mafia is hard.

:Ṣḅ ̇+·Ạṣ: :SbAs:

P


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Planning
PostPosted: Thu Mar 30, 2017 5:01 pm 
User avatar

Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:16 pm
Posts: 3
Location: EC - Floorpi
Updated implications (all assuming Elaine is town, which is... maybe not that safe of an assumption but shrug):

If there are 4 mafia left, then aok was a plant, achester was not mafia, the "aok didn't kill lukesci" result was true, and one of Katie and Jackie killed lukesci. Katie was the one saying she got townie vibes from aok, so more likely her. This leaves me, jamb, Lucy, and probably Elaine as town, though... I probably get Katie vig-killed (or do it myself), then count the mafia again to check, and if it still says 4, kill Jackie too.

If there are 3 mafia left, then probably aok is the dead mafia, achester was not mafia, the "aok didn't kill lukesci" result was probably true, and one of Katie and Jackie killed lukesci. Katie was the one saying she got townie vibes from aok, so more likely her. I probably get Katie vig-killed (or do it myself), then count the mafia again to check, and if it still says 3, kill Jackie too.
The "aok didn't kill lukesci" result could be false though, though I'm then not sure why they would lie about that except to discredit dgrazian and stop him from building a GCout. Might still be worth sniffing out the investigator, if only for getting everyone dead eventually purposes.

If there are 2 mafia left, then most likely achester and aok were mafia. Then the investigator who said "aok didn't kill lukesci" was probably false. Sniff them out and vigkill them and recount. If the investigator was achester, then that's unfortunate. I probably need to break up the jamb/Lucy/ksedlar bloc anyway, but without doing it in such a way that results in me dying.

If there are 1 mafia left, then Josh was a plant. I start killing town. Probably whoever is convenient. This is very unlikely.

If there are 0 mafia left, the universe is dead.

There are almost certainly 2 or 3 mafia left.

_________________
...But then again, I'm... Oops. Mafia is hard.

:Ṣḅ ̇+·Ạṣ: :SbAs:

P


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Planning
PostPosted: Thu Mar 30, 2017 5:10 pm 
User avatar

Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:16 pm
Posts: 3
Location: EC - Floorpi
The problem is that I don't know which universe I'm in.

I'm trying to get one of jamb and Lucy to count. If they give a count of 0,1, or 4 I'll probably assume they're lying and get them killed.

If they give a count of 3, I either think they're lying, or that one of jamb, ksedlar killed luke (or that there was a pointless lying investigator) and town is doing poorly. I then sniff out the investigator, see if they seem reasonable, try to get a vig to kill jamb, and me to kill ksedlar, and then recount.

If they give a count of 2, I either think they're lying, or that there's a lying investigator and town is doing OK. I then sniff out the investigator, put them on the lynch block, and kill ksedlar (?) just to be sure.

I mostly just don't know what I'm doing, tbh

_________________
...But then again, I'm... Oops. Mafia is hard.

:Ṣḅ ̇+·Ạṣ: :SbAs:

P


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Planning
PostPosted: Thu Mar 30, 2017 7:06 pm 
User avatar

Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:16 pm
Posts: 3
Location: EC - Floorpi
I paranoia texted jamb instead of killing her :( because I was afraid of messing game up. Oh well.

_________________
...But then again, I'm... Oops. Mafia is hard.

:Ṣḅ ̇+·Ạṣ: :SbAs:

P


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Planning
PostPosted: Thu Mar 30, 2017 7:06 pm 
User avatar

Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:16 pm
Posts: 3
Location: EC - Floorpi
To be fair, whether I should kill her really depends on the mafia count and other stuff

_________________
...But then again, I'm... Oops. Mafia is hard.

:Ṣḅ ̇+·Ạṣ: :SbAs:

P


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 5 posts ] 

All times are UTC - 5 hours


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group