Unfortunately, Shi-Ke, my psychic powers failed me while I writing my 1:11AM post, which I started before Ben posted at 1:08 AM. I'm quite embarassed my post took me at least three minutes to compose. Even more embarrassingly, I lost the keys to my time machine, so I'll have to be content with replying now.
benkraft wrote:
a. Things changed since we promised to lynch aok.
OK, I'm convinced, let's not take any chances and lynch aok full force. After all, he did refuse confirming his politician claim when things were safe.
benkraft wrote:
b. Gary didn't know about the kaufmand-aok plots. I think that on explanation, they're reasonable, although he had good reason to be suspicious.
A fact which aok could have easily remedied by messaging Gary with an explanation at any time during the three hours between Gary's announcement and him leaving for ESP retreat as I suggested. (
Thread.) Unfortunately, aok chose to not do so despite posting on the forum then. Why would he not tell the trusted innocent what was going on other than his claims being false?
benkraft wrote:
c. Even if Alex were clean when Gary said that, he could easily have been conscripted since then.
So could have you. Or aok. Or anyone. Let's lynch people there's good reason to suspect.
benkraft wrote:
d. Mafia have in the past generally conscripted an experienced player. They've probably done so. dgrazian seems quite clean; Dalton was mafia early enough that he probably wasn't conscripted. The next obvious target is Alex.
I never claimed any special role, proxy, or trust network, nor did I run for any office.
Also, Mafia were down to two people, one if you don't count the probable inactive Hassan, and didn't have much luxury whom or when to conscript.
benkraft wrote:
e. Alex, do you have any story as to why Hassan would have attacked Shi-Ke if aok were mafia (and therefore mafia knew about the Shi-Ke ironheart/investigator plot)? It seems like this one's hard to explain, and cost the Mafia too much (and would have involved thinking too many steps ahead) for it to be easy to explain away. I think it's pretty likely that anyone who was in on that plot is clean.
The point was for Hassan to die. aok was about to be lynched for faking politician/superhero by Daniel's plan. aok needed not just to kill Daniel, but to make sure the plan would not go through. Sacrificing a probably inactive Mafia achieved this. The alternative was aok being lynched.
Also, possibly, Shi-Ke is lying.
benkraft wrote:
f. What's the numbers check you've run? How close is it? I don't trust our ability to get *everyone* on board for this, nor do I trust our ability to ensure that no active player makes a mistake, or our ability to distinguish a mistake from scum, or our ability to keep the last fake ID out of Mafia hands. Also, I think it's clear that at this point, if we lynch aok, we're not lynching him as politician, so we're not testing his roleclaim, we're saying he's the most sketchy person around and deserves to be lynched. I think that's clearly not true, for the reasons above, especially e.
I'm for lynching him full force now. Do you care to explain why aok chose Ironheart (twice apparently!) knowing we were going to politician-test him?
benkraft wrote:
g. I think we can safely elect a mayor, we have plenty of ~confirmed townies at this point.
Who?
benkraft wrote:
h. What makes you think Shi-Ke isn't the source of this?
His claim of a sure Mafia win with no math behind it. He said was so sure but didn't prove it at all. It suggests someone told him or handwaved it.