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| Running commentary http://mafia.mit.edu/viewtopic.php?f=298&t=1453 |
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| Author: | Miranda Gavrin [ Thu Apr 17, 2014 10:46 am ] |
| Post subject: | Running commentary |
Some thoughts as I read through the mafia den posts: 1. Lily Chen was a huge sketchball. I should've listened my gut and told people not to trust her. 2. I'm glad I trusted my gut, and KSedlar's prescient advice, enough to give the medkit to Isaacg instead of Lily. Her bugging me for it was the thing that made me mistrust her in the first place; I'd feel like a complete tool if I threw it away like that. 3. Dang it, there are only 3 claimed investigators in the game and the one of them is mafia. We got a crappy role distribution. 4. I looked in the mafia den and OMG I'm a priority kill target next to aok and JFrisch. I'm flattered. 5. Lily Chen got me by hiding out at the gym. That was really clever--it's the one time I'm not being paranoid and don't have my phone out. 6. Oh blast, they conscripted Isaacg. Looks like I wasted the medkit after all. Ksedlar, it's all on you. 7. If they can get ksedlar lynched, town is doomed. |
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| Author: | Lucy [ Thu Apr 17, 2014 12:52 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
After I died and ksedlar started mobilizing town, i was pretty sure that town should win. But now Mafia know the roles of half of game. They have plans to use set a trap as much as possible. 2 of the 3 investigators will be killed today/tomorrow. The 3rd investigator may have been lynched already (Daniel do you have a ruling on that yet?) The town's investigator power would then rest on superheroes and desperadoes. Mafia don't know any prophets or desperadoes. They could still turn the game around in the town's favor but it would require lots of luck. |
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| Author: | Daniel Grazian [ Thu Apr 17, 2014 1:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
buttcrunch (the investigator) was indeed lynched. I posted this as a finalized announcement a short time ago. |
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| Author: | Miranda Gavrin [ Thu Apr 17, 2014 1:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
Oh great, one of our three investigtors was an inactive noob who got lynched day two. |
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| Author: | Daniel Grazian [ Thu Apr 17, 2014 2:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
Be nice  Yes, she's a new player, but so is everybody at some point. She'd been inactive so far, but my understanding is that she was about to start getting involved in the game. I always think it's a bit unfortunate when a new player dies early. But yeah, a dead investigator is pretty unfortunate for the town. Then again, a dead rogue is really unfortunate for the mafia. |
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| Author: | Lucy [ Thu Apr 17, 2014 2:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
yup but even without me they are already planning 3 deaths Today |
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| Author: | Josh Frisch [ Thu Apr 17, 2014 5:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
BTW, the expected effect of mandatory lynching is killing new town players. I would hazard a guess that 90+% of kills made because of mandatory kill are bad kills for town. I really, really, dislike this rule. There is a reason I support conditioning mafia shineys on extra time to encourage lynching rather than on town making no lynches. I dislike the "kill noobs because they aren't in random" strategy for meta-game reasons. But it's really fucking hard to lynch quasi-randomly and firmly (i.e. I'm sorry we randomly chose your name, you are getting lynched unless you can veri-prove your innocence, sorry about that) which is the correct strategy. So ppl default to "kill whoever doesn't object to being killed" which, surprise, surprise, ends up being nooby town players. BTW, it town wanted to lynch last night, correct lynch was clearly AdamYedidia, who claimed a non-verifiable role and made it late in day. |
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| Author: | Miranda Gavrin [ Fri Apr 18, 2014 8:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
Prayer circle for the safety of Queen Ellena! |
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| Author: | Daniel Grazian [ Fri Apr 18, 2014 8:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
Somehow I doubt the gods will answer your prayers... |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Fri Apr 18, 2014 10:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
Lily Chen wrote: I kaboomed him, and then katie started scrambling to open her computer. I was not trying to open my computer. Rather, I instinctually thought of it as a shield. In fact, I even managed to block her hand the first time she reached towards me. Really though, there was nothing I could do. I did not at all expect to be killed with two players near me when there wasn't a revealed mafia. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Fri Apr 18, 2014 11:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
Just got this email: "Hi Katie, Let's see... I think Santiago and I talked in the late afternoon and also in the evening, and then on Wed he actually gave his presentation from about 11-1. Can you let him live til we've submitted some paper revisions? Owen" So helpful now... |
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| Author: | Ellena [ Sat Apr 19, 2014 12:00 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
Oh, also, Santi said his supervisor would lie for him ^.^ before responding, Owen emailed Santiago asking if he should tell the truth. Just for future reference. |
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| Author: | Ellena [ Sat Apr 19, 2014 12:02 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
Oh oh oh they're going to investigate ksedlar's death. If Santi hadn't left, since Santi and Andres suspect lilychin (who killed ksedlar, I think?) they might investigate her! |
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| Author: | Ellena [ Sat Apr 19, 2014 12:03 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
Nope. Nevermind. Kevin's convincing him not to investigate now. He might be dead before he can investigate. |
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| Author: | Ellena [ Sat Apr 19, 2014 1:00 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
There's one tiny detail in the spreadsheet (that has now been given to all of EC (and all of the mafia - but they haven't noticed or taken this out yet, though they've been editing the sheet)) that could lead everyone to the fact that isaacg killed lopezv. If they follow their natural distrust of him, combine it with both my and aok's requests to investigate him, and add that together with the note on the spreadsheet "Isaac has been hanging around Clam much more than usual," then maybe they can get him. I think the only chance (and this is tiny tiny tiny) for town to win is if anpere decides to mayoral investigate lily for ksedlar's death, and someone puts all the things together and decides to investigate isaacg for lopezv's death, and someone follows my suspicions of svolz to her, and then have a non-EC trust circle-deluded player suggest lynching EC. I place the chances of any of this happening at about 5%. I place the chances of all of this happening at 0%. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Sat Apr 19, 2014 1:48 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
Isaac spending more time in Clam isn't particularly sketchy though. At least the reason he was there yesterday was because he tried to find someone to tool with, and then I followed him and refused to be left somewhere without other players. We ended up parking in Clam because aok was there. |
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| Author: | Ellena [ Sat Apr 19, 2014 1:52 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
It was sketchy enough for Lilly Chin to notice and point it out for me... maybe she'll tell someone else? |
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| Author: | Ellena [ Sat Apr 19, 2014 1:52 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
Ok, I'll stop being optimistic now. |
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| Author: | Ellena [ Sat Apr 19, 2014 2:01 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
Kevin will be killing Santi, deleting the spreadsheet, and the mafia will be doing their best to make sure anpere is the one that comes out guilty. Miles and Jess will be the only ones to support Andres. The evidence against him will be overwhelming, though. Andres will almost definitely be town's lynch tomorrow as long as the mafia doesn't royally fuck up. EC trust is broken. Miles and Jess die next morning with set a trap and bang. Kevin is lynched day end, but it's worth it, since he took down all of EC and gave them the tools to set-a-trap on the entirety of the rest of game. How's that for not being optimistic? Did I do it right? |
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| Author: | Lucy [ Sat Apr 19, 2014 12:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
hmm... I think jrowan may have activated. At least I remember him telling an np that he had panic texted him due to game and had just come from ET, presumably to investigate. If mafia decide to kill him now, that could turn out interesting. |
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| Author: | Daniel Grazian [ Sat Apr 19, 2014 12:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
Jrowan did activate his desperado power, but that only starts AFTER today. I reminded him of this, and based on what you're saying, it may be a good thing that I did. |
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| Author: | Miranda Gavrin [ Sat Apr 19, 2014 2:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
Props to Drosophyllum for knowing who nearly all of the mafia are. If town 1) believe him and 2) coordinate their votes, their defeat might not be as swift and horrible as I expected. |
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| Author: | Daniel Grazian [ Sat Apr 19, 2014 3:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
No, actually I think the town should win. I don't think the mafia realized just how completely kemus was holding them together. kemus was basically THE reason that lily and isaac were still alive. At least that had been my understanding. |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Sat Apr 19, 2014 3:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
Drosophyllum figured it out. He figured out that they have to lynch mayor Lily. And if they do that, they should be able to pull off lynching Kemus and Isaac in the next two days, especially if, say, Drosophyllum gets himself elected mayor. If town manages to win this, I will be more impressed than I've ever been with any live action mafia game ever. And I will have to give Santiago some sort of baked good. All hail Santiago, the glorious savior of town. |
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| Author: | Ellena [ Sat Apr 19, 2014 3:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
That's how it seems to me. If town follows Santiago entirely and completely, if they listen to him and lynch lilychen. If they let him interrogate every single player he will find svolz. If the town hands themselves over to Santiago, they will be saved. Hail the savior Santi. |
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| Author: | Miranda Gavrin [ Sat Apr 19, 2014 3:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
The mafia are getting scared. Town could actually pull this off if they all vote! Hail the savior Santi indeed. |
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| Author: | anpere [ Sat Apr 19, 2014 4:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
My brother is fueled by his anger at the mafia. He witnessed my death and felt my happiness of the smite and the sadness of the bang. He is a good brother and I hope he avenges me with the downfall of the mafia |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Sat Apr 19, 2014 4:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
Town is also currently a minefield riddled with superheroes, desperadoes, and conspiracy theorists. They have two superheroes, four desperadoes, a conspiracy theorist, and a dying prophet. If mafia wastes their single kaboom, town may very well be immortal enough to last until game end. Plus, with the four day weekend, it's going to be a huge pain for mafia to make kills. If mafia doesn't make the two kills per day or wastes a kaboom, town may very well win. However, mafia still has poison they can use, and Shi-ke might get evicted. Lisa will also die as a desperado before the end of the four days town would need to lynch every mafia. Somehow I don't think Sara will remain undetected throughout this. She'll probably hit an immortal with a bang/vote with the mafia at some point. Basically, I think it could go either way, but town has a very real chance, especially if mafia can't make the kills they need. |
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| Author: | Ellena [ Sat Apr 19, 2014 5:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
Santi has already narrowed the third mafia down to svolz. He will be advocating for her death. Kemus will use a kaboom on him. If he can realize that he doesn't have to go desperado, that kaboom will be wasted. |
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| Author: | Ellena [ Sat Apr 19, 2014 6:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Running commentary |
No! If toller votes wrong, mafia will win anyways! This is bad.... I hope town convinces her. |
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