Live Action Mafia

We should consider organizing a lynch mob tonight as a default in case we can't figure out the killer. This is starting to become more clearly a good idea as we have a fairly good idea what people could reasonably have committed yesterday and todays murder.


I'm personally in favor, despite my investigation result, of lynching dgrazian. I would put it at maybe 35% chance he is mafia aligned, that is I think he very likely is not! but the following is true:

He has been dramatically less active then in previous games which is consistent behavior with him being mafia. Admittedly he has been sick but not all that sick recently and, in any case, I'm not sure that's a sufficient excuse, with Daniel sick I would still expect forum activity. The only two real things I can think he's done this game (real as in, non-minor) are organize one meetup early game and post the new player suggestions list. The former, which I believe was comparatively short (though fact check me on this, I could be wrong), after I made clear to several players that I would be strongly in favor of lynching him if he did not do this near immediately. That was probably a dumb decision). Daniel, having publicly revealed his role is also a free kill for mafia which means the relative damage of lynching Daniel if he is innocent is less then other players.
Finally the fairly weak evidence for daniel being mafia (none of these are particularly strong but they do increase the chances)
Superhero unlike prophet/gay knights/innocent child/desperado is a good mafia fake claim in that it can't get them to prove it. This is pretty weak evidence but increases the chance from the initial rate by maybe 25% because as mafia he can't reasonably fake claim these roles, especially the first three.
He spent a tremendous amount of time with lilychen a known mafia. This increases the odds that she conscripted him slightly if she felt like keeping up appearances would be hard as fuck with him there (which, honestly, I think it would be a bit) this doesn't increase the odds much.

Anyways, I'm going to go to sleep soon and cast my vote for Daniel. He might very well be innocent, but I don't think it's a bad lynch either way. Either we lynch a good but not nearly as good as usual Daniel who is a free mafia kill or we lynch a mafia.

Also keep in mind the following facts, nobody can read Daniel. This is in fact the case. He is capable of acting spooked in a very convincing manner about being killed when he's mafia. He has demonstrated this. He is also very good at constructing arguments why he should not be lynched. This obviously does not mean he's more guilty or that you should take the above mentioned arguments as more weighty then you otherwise would but it does mean that a
superb defense on his part is to be expected, regardless of whether he is town or mafia and therefore should have no affect on your decision except as insofar as it brings up relevant concrete points. That is, he will defend himself hard and vociferously, regardless of what his role is, I would strongly consider (again, barring concrete, verifiable points which he brings up in his favor) basically ignoring his defense one way or the other in so far as it relies on statements which are true either way. That said, if you can think of a better lynch target, or we get better information from one of our investigations while I'm asleep obviously go with that. I don't think you should necessarily agree with my arguments, I just don't want anybody who believes they have any intuition about whether Daniel is innocent or not or believes they can glean any based on his oratory or textual concept defenses.

Jfrisch, not engaging in a secret conspiracy.

I am against default lynches until there are no longer investigators/investigation targets available. We're at 26 players right now and either 4 (or likely 5) mafia aligned. If we assume they get all the Fake IDs, they have an effective voting power of 9, which means when we get down to 18 people we might be fucked (this isn't even considering the powers they might have left). Mafia have to personally make 8 more kills to do this unless we lynch. I do not want to help the mafia get down to this number.

Ok, where to begin.

First off, if you really think there's a 35% chance that I'm mafia then of course you should lynch me. But it's absurd to come up with a number so high.

Josh says that my comparative inactivity in this game is 'consistent with me being mafia,' though what I assume he's implying is that I'm more likely to be mafia for it. This is nonsense. I've been highly active in every previous live action mafia game I've played, including the ones when I've been mafia. My relative inactivity in this game says nothing about whether or not I'm mafia. It says that I've been sick and tired throughout this game so far. I had a high fever all weekend (and was unable to sleep), I spent all day Monday fever-free but trying unsuccessfully to sleep, and by Monday night I was so sleep-deprived I could barely stand. On both Tuesday and Wednesday nights I was up for doing nothing but crashing and sleeping after getting back from work.

That's why I've been comparatively inactive in this game.

As for some of the other things that Josh has said:

1. Sure the mafia could have conscripted me. Maybe the mafia would be more likely to conscript me if they thought I suspected Lily (which I didn't, at least not more than average.) Or maybe they'd be less likely to conscript me, because they wouldn't want the guilt of one of us casting suspicion on the other. I don't know which of the 37 starting innocents the mafia chose/will choose to conscript. But very unlikely me (or any individual person.)

2. I am/will in fact be useful to the town. I'm finally almost back to normal health/sleep (I probably need one more good, long night of sleep.) Then I should be as active as ever in the game. Also, superhero is a useful role. It's half an investigator, plus the mafia have to worry about whether I'm going to be invulnerable.

3. Josh always pushes to lynch me. He perceives me as way more likely to be mafia than I actually am (hence the 35% that he threw out which is patently ridiculous.)

I hope that people aren't giving too much weight to Josh's call-to-lynch, but I thought I should respond in any case. I'm also giving Josh the benefit of the doubt for now that he is not mafia-trying-to-lynch-an-innocent, but the fact that he always pushes against me would certainly provide him good cover if he is in fact mafia.

Anyway, onto the next conversation I hope.

I'm for lynching Daniel. In fact, I was going to start the same default lynch mob. Yes, I know the lynch Daniel thing is cliche, but I believe Daniel's chance of being Mafia is above average, and his value as a Mafia is greater than that as a townie.

I am not going to lynch dgrazian, if this is all the reasoning we have to offer.

For now, my vote is on a No Lynch, but I would be fine with an inactive lynch. I also have a small list of people I would be okay with lynching based off of suspicions I can't quantify particularly well.

yeah, why not just lynch someone who's been mostly inactive?

I am not on board with lynching dgrazian. Since he has been sick, he has been active, but he will probably start being active and potentially valuable soon. After we've seen more of how he plays, I will consider again whether I want to lynch him.

I'm not particularly inclined to No Lynch (like gxing, I would rather lynch an inactive or lynch someone I find suspicious than No Lynch) but I will go with No Lynch if we don't find a better target.

I think the trap we're falling into is to lynch people who contribute little to town. Rather, in the absence of information, we should lynch those with greatest ratio of value as Mafia to value as town. I think Dgrazian has the highest such ratio now.

Also, the fact that lilychen was Mafia slightly increases my view of the chance he is Mafia, since it would be easy and convenient for one to conscript the other, and would give a lot more freedom to make kills.