Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: Role Info/Suspicions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:27 am 
As mentioned before, I slightly think that achester is secretly spending more time on game than he claims. So, epsilon update on him being GN or TM with someone quite active (Katie seems most likely but who knows).

Thoughts on ksedlar proxying the elin investigation? It's just a little bit too weird to be believable that achester would out her as the one he was proxying. And Katie seems to be trying to milk this on TS by saying she won't reveal inner/outer, as if she's *trying* to look like the source of the investigation. Personally I think she's trap baiting. elin is a dumb investigation target since she was alibied, which suggests GN or stalker, and it's kinda rude to stalk a new player because if they're mafia it's cool for them to get a chance to make undetected kills, though maybe Katie actually does completely RNG stalker targets. The point is, if someone *actually* wanted to avoid role leaks they wouldn't proxy this thing at all because it says too much about their role for basically no investigative value. tl;dr ksedlar probably trap baiting with achester's help.


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 Post subject: Re: Role Info/Suspicions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:49 am 
There appear to be 2 legit investigations (one inner, one outer) last night (i.e. not the BS with elin or the clearing of me). And both of them cleared a mafia :P That's not many investigations to dodge. Then again, I think the squares van got back too late for Katie, Lucy, Sammy, Isaac, Josh to investigate? Or did it?

Gods: Would people at Squares have been able to investigate (on the grounds that they had been in front hall after the kill happened, even though they didn't then realize they were visiting a kill site)? I'd probably have ruled no - you have to go there with the intent of looking for evidence - which narrows down the possible investigator set.

Did Josh role claim anything? Presumably he'd have done so if he were GN/IC/TM faking GN/vigilante, so I think we should assume we offed an investigative town townie. (That's actually fairly improbable? Like both his roles must've been stalker/investigator/gravedigger.) I don't think we should expect lynch mobs to go so easily in the future, though, so we should be careful not to be obviously starting them, since there are so many role claims that could backfire on us. (e.g. vig on the execution block definitely kills the person who's advocating to execute them.)

If someone wants to gravedig Luke, I'm really interested to know whether we managed to kill a TM, though it's unlikely.

@Lucy: what was the proxy chain on the investigation on me? I think people with investigatorial roles are somewhat more likely to double proxy because they don't themselves want to be seen posting investigations.


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 Post subject: Re: Role Info/Suspicions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:29 am 
Visiting the kill site before you know it's a kill site still counts, so people leaving on the squares van run could have investigated.


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 Post subject: Re: Role Info/Suspicions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:51 am 
I sent my investigation on you through Sammy

Also the Elaine investigation definitely didn't originate from ksedlar. AFAIK it was Achester -> me -> ksedlar -> Achester -> town. Pesto likely just posted it since it had gotten back to him.

The outer investigation on me was a stalk.


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 Post subject: Re: Role Info/Suspicions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:19 pm 
Elaine says she gravedug luke as outer gay knight. I asked if she was sure she wanted to proxy given that other people were saying not to proxy grave digs, and she said in that case no. Her response time was fast enough that I doubt she checked with someone else in the meantime. She had also been asking me about how gravedigger worked this morning (in addition to a couple other roles but I don't remember which :/).

So either:
- Elaine is outer grave digger and we could trap as such
- someone else proxied to Elaine and she double proxied (unlikely because proxying this at all seems like a new-player move)
- Sammy or someone like that told Elaine to send this for trap trolling purposes
- Daniel is not actually a gay knight, and he or his mafia buddy told Elaine to send this out to confuse people (unlikely because then she wouldn't back down from having it proxied out)

If we get down to 2 mafia at some point we should certainly trap Elaine, because this is the best lead we have so far and we need to use our traps by distinct people.


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 Post subject: Re: Role Info/Suspicions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:48 pm 
jamb wrote:
we need to use our traps by distinct people.


That's not a thing.


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 Post subject: Re: Role Info/Suspicions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:51 pm 
When did that stop being a thing?

Wow that's like the 10th time I've been wrong about the rules in this game. Apologies to those who suffer the fate of being mafia with me.


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 Post subject: Re: Role Info/Suspicions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:52 pm 
It was never a thing


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 Post subject: Re: Role Info/Suspicions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:09 pm 
Conclusions tonight: Outer / Inner
Daniel Grazian: GN / Mafia
achester: ? / GN
line: Gravedigger / GN (dying)

no traps to set here, really :(


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 Post subject: Re: Role Info/Suspicions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 11:12 pm 
Do we have any ideas who the other town mafia would be? Psychologically, I feel like lilychen and isaacg were not aligned with Daniel, though that could've just been show. And obviously line wasn't. Soooo that's pretty awkward for the ksedlar/sammyluo/jamb alliance. But I promised not to turn on them until it's mechanically advantageous, so I've marked the spreadsheet accordingly that isaacg and lilychen are our top targets. (In that order, I think?)

We have an information advantage over town of knowing that tomorrow's kill will be TM and that there's only one of them. So they can't proxy out investigations on themself, or alibi themself, or be a TM who didn't make the kill. Therefore we can mechanically drop anyone to lowest priority kill if they're inner investigated or alibied for tomorrow's kill. That said, TM might realize this and not make a kill tomorrow. I think if they do, that's still fine for us since there's no chance they kill us.

By the way, it's like 3v5 now, with a TT (line) dying tomorrow night. If we can all stay alive through tomorrow we'll be in good shape. Jordan, you're at particular risk, since SL+KS (probably) won't kill me or Lucy; if possible stick around multiple other players and paranoia text.

Note: dear whoever the mafia mafia is (if not aok), please don't betray us now; we can get this one point if we work together, but it's far from guaranteed if we betray each other, and bad crap always happens to mafia so even if you think it's an easy win, town might rally and you'd end up with 0. You're at 1v2 which is really not bad odds, and one of the MT might die from other stuff in the next couple days anyway (and you'd win lynch tiebreaks against the other), and if *you* die from other stuff in the next couple days anyway you'd want us still alive getting you the one point at least.


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 Post subject: Re: Role Info/Suspicions
PostPosted: Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:07 am 
isaacg seemed very believing of the result that aok didn't outer kill lukesci, and was the most vociferous against dgrazian. I would believe that was isaacg's investigation. (We already know it wasn't anyone who was around the house to investigate on day 1.) It wasn't a stalk (aok would've mentioned being stalked) or gay knight (aok wasn't outer GN).

So I think our best trap bet is isaacg = Outer Investigator. I'd give this ~50% chance of being right? There are lots of other BS possibilities for what could've happened, but this seems most likely. Let's wait a day for the TM kill + lynch (we'd rather leave some targets alive who aren't us), and then if isaacg is still alive tomorrow we try to trap him and make two kills.


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