Live Action Mafia

Yesterday, Phillip was murdered, and GurtejKanwar was lynched in a very close vote. Discuss.

Day 7?

Since krue is still relevant, would Dalton like to post his story?

I'm quite sketched by the Fake IDs voting for all the suspicious people except krue. This could be framing, but that would be relatively surprising to me.

Krue, any idea who the fake IDs are?

Not a fucking clue. I fully expected to be dead right now.

Wow that was surprising to see all the ID's in play O.o;
Also, why was the 3rd ID used?

Why not? Maybe they're all owned by Mafia, and Gurtej and Molly looked like the next best candidates to take the lynch off krue.

Incidentally, this would be reasonable Mafia play as it doesn't reveal them, and if krue was already going to be lynched, her alive and sketchy is better than her dead.

Oddly enough, the voter turn out has also decreased ._.

Says the one who didn't vote? Also, there were the same number of votes today as the last two days combined, so it might be getting better.

Quick note, we know who started out with the fake ids. So if this seems sufficiently fishy, we can ask who they gave them to.

That seems like it would be very easy for them to just claim they gave them to someone else. If a mafia member started out with them and kept them, they could just say they passed one off to some random townie, who would now look suspicious.

I will note that this also means we need more activity, because the Mafia may now be able to exercise a voting bloc mostly anonymously, so we need a bigger one on the side of town.

I promised you a story when I was done with board games, but I wasn't done until 28:00 yesterday, so here is the story now.

On day 2, Gurtej and I were walking back to Random from class at around 15:00. We passed krue and jhurwitz in lobby 10 and waved to them but thought nothing of it. Later at Random I was talking to krue about live action mafia and I mentioned jhurwitz's death. Krue and I both suddenly realized that we had seen each other and jhurwitz right after he died. She seemed to have not known that until I talked to her, so I thought that she was probably not mafia despite having a perfect opportunity to kill jhurwitz. I also asked the investigator to check if krue killed jhurwitz and got no response.

However, I am now more suspicious of krue after last night's vote. She said that she did not use a fake ID. I did not either. This means that at most one person who voted for Gurtej used a fake ID to do so and at least one person voted for Gurtej with a fake ID but not with their normal vote. It seems that the point of the fake ID votes was to save krue without letting us know who they were. I cannot think of any reason why that would happen in any situation other than the mafia saving another mafia member.

I just thought of another possible explanation for krue being surprised in Dalton's story – krue may not have known that Dalton was playing, and the surprise would be consistent with "oh crap, a player saw me and I didn't realize" rather than "oh wow, I didn't realize that looked sketchy".

Public Service Announcement: If anyone has used the medkit or been killed as Ironheart (and not conscripted), PLEASE TELL US! It gains the Mafia no information and gains Town a lot of information.

In addition, if you've used the search warrant, please tell us (after handing off the items you got).

I knew Dalton was playing when I passed him on the day jhurwitz was murdered. As has been said, I didn't realize he had died until later, and the fact that the time I saw him corresponded to when he died took longer to realize because I have a giant block of classes MWF and don't really think about timing when I'm going between them.

Since we're coming up with explanations, here's another one. The mafia tried to frame me. People were already kind of suspicious of me, and if they managed to push the vote off me and lynch Gurtej, then chances are I would get lynched the next night anyway, keeping the town off their trail for another day. At this point in the game, one day could start mattering a lot more.

Assuming the worst case scenario, that they conscripted someone and have all three IDs, and also assuming I'm looking at the numbers correctly which could be crazy because I need to sleep but whatever, we only have a few days before the mafia would be able to overcome our voting bloc if they tried hard enough.

Anyway, food for thought. Imma go sleep now.

Regardless of whether krue is mafia, it seems likely that the two fake IDs that voted for Gurtej are mafia. Looking at who had these fake IDs, fake ID 1 started with Adam Yedida and fake ID 3 was given to lizrita after fluffy was lynched. If Adam had given his ID to lizrita on day 1 or 2, which seems likely because they are both in ET and lizrita did not have an item at the time, then lizrita would have had control of both of the sketchy fake IDs. If she is mafia, then both fake IDs would end up in the control of the mafia. Therefore, I think that lizrita is actually sketchier than krue now.

Ben suggested that I post my observation that lizrita herself voted exactly twice: Day 4 and Day 5. These were unanimous lynches for Amanda and Kit, respectively, with low voter turnout. In particular, both of these votes were suggested by krue, who is also the only other person to have voted on both Day 4 and Day 5.

It might not be that significant, because as said they weren't very interesting votes (as said, unanimous 3-4 people) but it's something.

I talked to Dalton for a while before he posted that, and I agree. Fake IDs 1 and 3 are almost definitely held by Mafia, and lizrita had Fake ID 3 and would have been the obvious hand-off for Fake ID 1. I think I'll probably vote for either her or krue, not sure which yet.

Again, we need people to vote today, since the Fake IDs are now in use.

I wasn't able to vote yesterday because I was the Queen in Right of Kings. If I had time to leave my post as Queen and were to use a Fake ID, why wouldn't I vote using my own name? That vote was close enough that if I really cared if krue was lynched or not, I would have submitted my own vote towards another viable option (in this case, Gurtej).

Not that anyone cares, but I passed off the lotteried Fake ID almost immediately after I received it. I don't know where it is now, but I agree 1 and 3 are probably held by mafia now.

If townspeople are going to start lynching people who decide to vote, I don't think we're going to have much of a chance against the mafia vote if they really do have two Fake IDs.

Just because the IDs passed through you doesn't mean you still have them even if you're Mafia; even if you're Mafia you might have passed them off to another Mafia member. Also, do people think it would be a good idea for lizrita to confirm whether or not she at one point had Fake ID 1 as well? (If her claim that she didn't have time to vote is correct (I'm inclined to believe it), she doesn't have it now.) Should she even say to whom she gave them?

I know I'm probably going to get jumped on for this, but have you considered that benkraft might be mafia? He's been being pretty pushy about wanting to lynch me and accusing people in general recently. Considering how many people aren't active, we could be getting close to endgame, especially if the mafia have all three IDs, so putting the townspeople back a day at this point would be extremely advantageous to the mafia, as I mentioned earlier.

Although he was suggesting Lizrita should tell us who she passed the IDs off to (he didn't say this outright, but he brought up the idea), so they might not actually have all of them. Unless she's mafia too, but that wouldn't make sense if he's contemplating lynching her. Either way, trying to get people to tell you where the fake IDs went seems sketchy in my mind.

Another thing. There were five mafia at game start. There could be up to six at this point if they conscripted. Just because someone's never been near the scene of a crime or committed a murder doesn't mean they aren't mafia. JB demonstrated this to great effect in the IAP game (up until the very end), where he was the one pulling everyone's strings, even the townspeople, and got the other mafia to do all the dirty work. Similarly, Ben has been pretty involved in guiding the lynch mobs (from what I've seen), and no one seems to find him even the slightest bit sketchy.

Also, as has been previously stated, Ben left the APO thing shortly before myself, Molly, and Phillip. I feel like it's completely plausible that he hired a hitman so that he could shove the blame on Molly and/or myself. Again, at this point in game, having the town waste a few days lynching innocents could make all the difference.

1. I was wondering when that was coming... you can only be active for so long without becoming suspicious.

2. When there are a small number of active people, a large part of the discussion comes from a small number of people. If 1,000,000 people join the Tautology Club, it will have 1,000,000 people in it.

3. Putting the town back a day would indeed be quite bad, which is why I'd like to lynch the suspicious people.

4. I raised the question about fake IDs because I hadn't entirely thought out whether it was a good idea. Now I think it is -- if she says whether she had them, Mafia doesn't learn anything useful but we might. I'm still not sure whether she should say to whom she gave them, but I would lean towards yes: I think we can assume at least one of the two IDs in question is Mafia-controlled -- who else would vote with a fake ID and not vote themselves? Then at least one of the fake IDs in question was passed to a Mafia member, quite probably both of them (if Molly confirms that she didn't use one, then we can be sure about this). Identifying to whom the IDs were given gives us almost certainly one and probably two Mafia, at the cost of allowing the Mafia to take fake IDs that are probably already theirs. If anyone disagrees with this analysis, please do post; I'm not at all sure that I'm not missing something.

5. Honestly, I'm not asking anyone to trust me. There exist circumstances where one might do this, but I'm not claiming anyone needs to trust me any more than anyone else. What I am claiming is that my arguments are valid. If you don't think they're valid, argue against them rather than me.

6. In my experience, Mafia accuse their accuser much more than town. This is probably because town argues about what's true, whereas Mafia tries to manipulate the evidence to prove things that aren't true; if a townie is accused, the evidence is presumably faulty in some way, so they can say this, while if a Mafia member is accused, the evidence may be entirely true, so they have to do something else. I will note krue's most recent post contained no discussion of the accusations against her or lizrita, beyond the extent to which they apply to me.

7. If I've been in all the lynch mobs, it's because I've been active and live in Random, where all the lynch mobs have been. I haven't influenced them much more than others, I don't think, and when I have it's been with arguments rather than with claims of evidence.

8. I don't see how leaving the APO thing early makes me any more sketchy than either of the other Mafia players there. Yes, any of us could easily have hired a hitman. I've already said I think one of me, krue, and Molly is almost certainly Mafia; personally I know it's not me, and while I can't expect you to know that, I think it's a fair claim that one of the three of us is Mafia.

9. If this post is long, it's because making logical arguments takes up more space than simply claiming flimsy evidence or merely suggesting that I might be Mafia.

10. TL;DR: Listen to my arguments rather than worrying about whether I'm trustworthy.

I dont have and didn't use the fake ID, so with Ben's logic, it might mean that a mafia member has it. (that logic makes sense to me, we should find out who has it) On the topics of fake IDs, one of them voted for me last night. I was thinking about it, and it only makes sense if someone there (at the random discussion) thought I was suspicious or something and voted for me with it so I didn't know who they were. Dalton voted with me, so that doesn't make too much sense, and benkraft is the only other person really actively in the discussion, so I'm going to vote for him tonight.

I'm not sure why I would have put one vote on you, since I knew other people were voting for Gurtej and krue, and I clearly thought they were the most suspicious. Then again, I'm not sure why anyone else would have either, except to try to put suspicion on people. In any case, it was one vote, and quite probably Mafia (since the person didn't also publicly vote).

Also, why don't you think lizrita and krue are at all more suspicious than me?

How could you possibly know that the person didn't publicly vote? Just because someone votes with a fake ID doesn't mean they have to vote for the same person themself.

The person who voted for Molly with a fake ID didn't also vote publicly for Molly. This means that person is likely Mafia. Therefore, fake ID 2 is likely Mafia.

So then ask Patrick who he gave it to?

Patrick, to whom did you give Fake ID 2?