Live Action Mafia

Yesterday, Lauren Merriman was murdered, and benkraft was lynched.

Discuss!

Out of all the people who are left, who are still active/ still care about this game.

Everyone who's still alive except for KRoe and catthu voted in one of the last two days. Past that, I'm not completely sure of people's commitment to the game.

I actually attempted to vote today, but apparently my vote came in a minute too late. Sadface. I left my laptop at ET and haven't been on the forums all day until now.

I guess I should explain why I voted with ben instead of with the rest of the group. In my experience, I have learned to be less trusting of the ones who resort to surprise attacks to make their kills. If you can't explain openly why you think someone should be lynched, and give them a chance to defend themselves, it seems like some dangerous power of influence are being played at. benkraft's argument:

"This is probably because town argues about what's true, whereas Mafia tries to manipulate the evidence to prove things that aren't true; if a townie is accused, the evidence is presumably faulty in some way, so they can say this, while if a Mafia member is accused, the evidence may be entirely true, so they have to do something else."

made a lot of sense to me, that mafia would be more likely to attempt to do tricks to manipulate the evidence or the circumstances so as to get past the evidence that looks bad for them. So when Dalton had a plan to use this type of a trick to blindside Ben, it felt too fishy for me to go along with.

Now I would like to note two things. First of all, right up until benkraft was dead, Dalton has given every indication that he suspects krue of at least being suspicious. Then, as soon as the person who put the most accusation on her is dead, he retracts it and states, for no given reason, that he does not suspect her at all. Second, there were two or three occasions in which Dalton was the sole person giving an alibi for krue. So from what I have been seeing, Dalton would agree that krue is suspicious from being close to the murders on multiple occasions, then give just enough to make her seem clear of having done the killing. However, each time, he maintained that she still seemed a bit suspicious. Now, as soon as her main accuser is dead, he is fully standing by her to say that he sees her as being not mafia. I am currently really suspicious of the two of them.

One other note, we have definitely shown now that the two fake id's are very likely held by mafia. This is because they were not used in the last vote. If you think about it, the mafia definitely could not use them that round because if they did, being that we suspected them of belonging to the mafia, we would then see who they wanted to kill. Thus the best option would seem to them to not use them at all and allow their influence in the vote to keep them safe from lynching.

However this logic has a catch. Because of the fact that mafia has fewer members, it is more important to them to stay alive than to hide who they are trying to have killed. So I present the following possibilities for the scenario. 1. benkraft was mafia and at least one of the mafia holding on to one of the fake id's got a PM from Dalton. This would mean that mafia would have had warning that there was about to be an attempt on benkraft. Their best strategy would be for all of the rest of the mafia to not vote and thus hide their side in the lynching and have the fake id's be used on someone else likely to get one or two votes. This would have been effectively +2 votes for someone else and -2 for benkraft, putting them in a better situation and not revealing any of them except maybe benkraft, who if lives gives them an extra turn. 2. benkraft was mafia and no one else in mafia was around last night. In this case benkraft was just screwed and the mafia was stupid to not be paying attention to what was going on then and lost one. Then the reason for no use of the fake ids would be the holders missed the lynching. 3. benkraft is not mafia and no mafia was around to hear of Dalton's plan. In this case they would likely have attempted to use the fake ids at least to scramble the vote or pull for a no lynch in case of low turn out. This is because, if the mafia has no sway over how the vote is going to go, they are vulnerable. So they will want to use whatever then can to minimize the damage. 4. benkraft is not mafia and at least one mafia heard of Dalton's plan (/Dalton is mafia and made the plan with them). Then there would be no need to use the fake ids because Dalton had a strong way to direct a number of votes to a non-mafia, thus keeping the mafia safe. So mafia would not be worried and would hold on to the ids and not use them because they wouldn't have to.

I personally think 4 is the most likely. So I currently strongly believe that Dalton and krue are mafia right now and used the 'kill the loudest' method to save the mafia from death that round. They saved krue on day 6 with the fake id's and now they saved her last night with this method of misdirection.

Also, apologies lizrita, I voted for you simply to not kill benkraft, who I think was being targeted by mafia, and thus seen as a more valuable target to them.

Oops. Sorry about not voting. I didn't realize that it was around 12 until it was past 12.

Wow. Okay. I went to bed early yesterday and in my excitement (if you can call it that) about sleeping before midnight for the first time in a long time I forgot all about this game. Not that, it appears, my vote would have changed anything.

Alive:

AdamYedida
Anthony Lu
catthu
Chewy Shaw
Dalton Allan
Jwu
KRoe
krue
lizrita
Lydia Krasilnikova
Molly K
ssuen

Mafia get a kill today, so that's 11 people remaining at the end of the day. Worst case, it's possible that mafia already has majority for the next vote. Even if this isn't true, they have at least two fake IDs and likely three, meaning that if we haven't lynched 3 mafia already, we're pretty much screwed.

I have to go to class now, so I can't say much more. Dalton's actions were very sketchy, I wouldn't trust him. Unless more drastic developments, I'm voting for lizrita because we have tiebreaker advantage and we need as much as we can get.

Misspoke. I meant unless more drastic developments or logic persuades me otherwise, since I haven't thought this through properly yet. Class time.

In case I am killed in the next few hours, I will give my current plan out here. Based on the theory outlined by my previous post, there is only one person who I feel confident enough to trust to push for mayor. That person is lizrita. The reason is because she is the only person voted to be lynched by either Dalton or krue that is still alive. Because the vote for her was not with a big group, this makes it practically certain that if Dalton is mafia, she is not. I will be attempting to get a petition put together for her today. My number is 678-772-3728. Please call or text me if you would be willing to sign it and are free so that we can get her elected as soon as possible and hopefully use the extra votes this evening.

Jwu was killed in her room at East Campus (B209) at 3:03 p.m.

jherig's Rule need not apply.

I was super paranoid about being killed after class today, so I locked myself in my room. Seems I'm safe for now, but I'm not sure who to trust discussion with.

Analysis time!

Since I'm possibly at this point biased to believe that benkraft was not mafia, let's start with that.

Assume benkraft was mafia. Then Dalton is necessarily not mafia (or Day 8 would've made absolutely no sense). Also, since Ben voted for lizrita on Day 8 without anyone else following him, lizrita is also almost certainly not mafia with Ben.

Who is left?

The observation that Fake IDs 1 and 3 did not appear last night implies that the mafia weren't around to vote last night, because if they did, they would have almost certainly used them, as Chewy noted. In addition, Ben agreed with almost every lynch so far, so mafia are not likely to be dead. So the only people who can be mafia didn't vote last night.

Precisely: Chewy, me, catthu, KRoe, lizrita, Molly K.

At least five of us six would have to be mafia, and all five forgot to show up to vote last night. Same conclusion as Chewy: highly unlikely.

Assume benkraft was innocent.

Let's go back to Day 7, the night Patrick was lynched. While we (me, Ben, Dalton, Patrick, and krue) were discussing game on Bonfire, Dalton and Patrick left to speak in private. Dalton claimed that during this private conversation, Patrick gave Dalton the Fake ID 2 in exchange for not voting to lynch Patrick. The alternative explanation is that both Patrick and Dalton were mafia, and they needed an excuse to hand off the ID in case Patrick was lynched.

Patrick, Dalton, and Fake ID 2 voted together for lizrita on Day 7. This would make sense if both Patrick and Dalton were mafia, but not if both Patrick and lizrita are mafia. (Otherwise, Patrick diverting votes to lizrita would not be a logical thing to do.)

Also, on Day 6, it looks like Dalton was the first to suggest any suspicion about lizrita, and Ben agreed only after speaking to him. This makes it highly unlikely that both Dalton and lizrita are both mafia. (Again, Dalton diverting suspicion to lizrita would not be a logical thing to do.)

In conjunction, this means that the only way lizrita is mafia is if both Dalton and Patrick were innocent. Given the amount of shadiness surrounding both of their actions, particularly Dalton, I find this is highly unlikely. So, contrary to my previous statement, I think lizrita is probably innocent.

I lay this out here so that it doesn't look like I'm just following Chewy, if anyone else is still out there who needs things proved to them.

tl;dr: lizrita good, Dalton and krue bad.

For now ignore krue's post. I need every vote for Dalton

For now ignore krue's post. I need every vote for Dalton

I trusted krue a fair amount, so the mafia know many of my theories. Krue may have influenced me when I was coming up with theories, so I will not state any of them and will only state facts. The plot to lynch Ben started when Patrick told me that he had suspicions that Ben was mafia and seemed to have some evidence. He gave me his medkit (which he could have destroyed if he were mafia), search warrant, and fake ID 2 before he was lynched. Krue and I then came up with a plan to lynch Ben. We secretly pmed all of the people who voted for him except for ssuen, who was not told about this plot. Today, after krue admitted to being mafia, Lydia and I used my search warrant to search krue and got a search warrant and fake ID 1. If people want to hear theories, some of which are probably correct, I will post them. Also, vote for krue tonight since we know that she is mafia. If the game is not done tomorrow, you can vote for me, but I assure you that I am not mafia.

Why is Chewy telling everyone to ignore krue's post admitting that she is mafia?[/b]

Two things,

1. Lizrita is mayor! We have a shot at this.

2. I will now explain why I said ignore krue for now. We definitely now have enough evidence to lynch krue and be sure that we got a mafia. And so, if we were playing a sit down game of mafia, I would say that everyone should switch to krue. However we are not, and a decision for everyone to switch would take a variable amount of time to propagate. If some of us switch to krue now, we will have a split townspeople vote. What I expect to see happen tonight is that krue, Dalton, the two fake ids, and possible one or two other mafia will vote to kill someone else (likely me), regardless of what Dalton now says. If we as the townspeople are split, this can give them a clear majority giving them control over tonight's lynch and tomorrow's mafia kill.

(cont.)

What's the other thing?

Oh. lol. Sorry, posted too soon. ><

However, now with lizrita as mayor, if we all band together and lynch Dalton, we can win the vote and will have an opportunity to kill krue tomorrow. Either way, I am fully behind killing krue. However I simply think trying to get everyone to switch now would take too much time. We only have an hour left till the deadline. So Everyone should vote for Dalton tonight. That way we can be sure that we have a collective vote if some don't see these latest posts in time. Also, it would be helpful towards raising our confidence in our vote if everyone would post here who you are voting for tonight. That way, we can see that we are still in control over the mafia vote.

I think I'm probably going to vote with the majority, whatever that is.

The people who haven't seen this are definitely voting for Dalton?

If so, I will as well.

I am voting for Dalton.


Also, quick note, if I die tomorrow, everyone should definitely vote for krue regardless of what happens (unless she is somehow miraculously cleared). This way we can be decided together for tomorrow.

Another quick note, the fact that mafia wants us to try to lynch krue tonight is the other thing that scares me. The no kill on day four means that someone was almost certainly conscripted. There is the small chance that that person was politician and will make it through a lynching without dying. If this is krue, the exact thing for mafia to do right now would be to make sure we lynch krue. In that case, my vote scenario was wrong and this becomes even more drastic. In that case, every single vote for krue would be a vote with the mafia and would strengthen them against us. Because we will need to kill her eventually, I still say we go for her tomorrow. However we need to make sure we do not do what they want us to do tonight.

Voting for Dalton, definitely.

Yes. Voting for Dalton.

Okay. I guess I'm voting for Dalton, then.

I see that there is no way for me to live. I am voting for krue in case we need a tiebreaker. Sadly, I am not mafia, so lynching me will accomplish nothing, but I think that with a non-mafia mayor we can win.

As can be seen, we got 4 people to notice the post in time and respond with their proposed votes. So attempting a massive switch this late would have likely been a disaster. Especially since some people would need to be convinced to switch their vote.