Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2011 4:26 pm 
Throughout Days 7 and 8, I sent Daniel my commentary and speculation about how the game is going. I've copied our conversation below for your reading pleasure!

I mostly kept free of secret knowledge before Day 7. Here's the extra info I had:
1) I found out Lydia is Mafia because she killed me. Without this info, I never had a reason to think she is Mafia.
2) I found out Adam is Mafia due to a forum accident that was my fault. Without this info, I still would have believed him to be Mafia due to his silence and Fake ID vote, but less confidently.
3) Fluffy said in the Graveyard that he was Ironheart, but this never became relevant.

All other info I got later on got is stated in the messages.
Alex on Day 7 at 3AM wrote:
Who I think the Mafia are: Adam, Lydia, Krue, Lizrita, Dalton, and Molly.

Since these are six and I don't think conscript was used, I must have at least one extra.

They have all three fake ID's and just got a search warrant randomly given to krue.

I think the Mafia tipped their hand in today's vote. I hope the town is aware enough to capitalize. Otherwise, they lose. With 16 players left, if all the Mafia are alive (which I think they are) Mafia plus all three fake ID's have 8 votes vs 11 town votes. With a kill tomorrow, 8 vs 10. If the Mafia have conscripted already, with a kill tomorrow, it's 9-9. Given the no-votes, it looks grim. Town would need a role ability to save them.

Daniel on Day 7 at 12PM wrote:
You've just about nailed it, and I agree with basically all your analysis. 5 out of the 6 that you named are mafia! However, they do not have all the fake ID's. They are currently missing one of them.

Alex on Day 7 at 2PM wrote:
Yes, it didn't make sense for me to claim that Mafia had Fake ID 2 given that it voted for Molly, who I think is Mafia. I believe Patrick never gave it away and still has it. I wonder if he is Investigator and caught Molly, given the vote.

The extra person I listed seems to be so duped by Mafia that I can't tell they're not by their votes and posts. It's either Dalton or Molly. I'm going to guess Dalton is innocent, since he's been in the Mafia-run lynch mobs at Random throughout, and so prone to influence. This is disappointing, as Dalton seemed to know what he was doing. He voiced suspicion of krue, but looks like he was pushed to vote for Gurtej by the mob (it was this switch that made me believe he is Mafia).

Alex on Day 7 at 11:30 PM wrote:
Time for speculation. I hope you're entertained, Daniel!

And now the Mafia have used the search warrant krue just got to kill josh despite his medkit, which he never gave away. The timing makes me guess that the Mafia did not already have the other warrant. This means Phillip actually did give away his search warrant (as he said he would), and so the mafia didn't get it when they killed him. I don't know him, so I don't know whom he'd give it to. Not Patrick, who chased him suspiciously.

I think by elimination, Dalton killed Josh. It would be easy, as he lives in Foo. Can't be a hitman (used search warrant), Lydia (away unless she's lying), or krue (who they made have alibi, as she's currently suspected). I doubt MtP move, as there might be witnesses to Josh being around foo. The other potential Mafia are non-Random would be suspicious to be there (though maybe these people are around enough that it's not). This tips me more towards Dalton Mafia.

Maybe Lizrita is actually innocent... She never posted, and only made obvious votes that didn't matter, so she's not one I'd expect to hand off a fake ID, but perhaps she did to Adam, who is also at ET, who shared it with the Mafia.

I'm sad that townies are not capitalizing on the blatant info in the day 6 votes. Krue's defense is distracting them from questioning the innocence of the others involved. Town needs to have the monster appear after today to stand a chance. They can't realistically elect a mayor.

Daniel on Day 7 at 11:50 PM wrote:
You are incorrect on most of the details this time (you had pretty much everything nailed before!) However, I completely agree with you that the town should totally be capitalizing on the relatively obvious information from yesterday's vote. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like that is going to happen.

Alex on Day 8 at 1AM wrote:
Well, I can't get it all :D. But I'll speculate yet more.

No monster is GG. I have no idea who MadSci was. Too bad, benkraft was on top of things with what to do if the monster appears. But looks like he too was bamboozled into voting for Patrick. At least Dalton voted for lizrita (though I don't know why krue wasn't first choice). So looks like he's town and just persuaded by the mafia-led lynch mobs earlier. I'd assume Patrick gave his fake ID to Dalton, his compatriot in voting.

The Mafia are making no effort to hide themselves in votes because they know they can push to win. Even Adam, who had been silent, came out of the woodwork to vote for benkraft, the Mafia's only public opposition.

If Mafia conscript the holder of the last fake ID (#2), they get majority vote 9 to 8.

Daniel on Day 8 at 1:10AM wrote:
Most of what you're saying is correct, though you to seem to be making one assumption that is false (and the truth favors the town.) None the less, it seems pretty much gg right now.

Especially because the mafia received the medkit less than an hour ago.

Alex on Day 8 at 10PM wrote:
I know townspeople are getting crushed but this is just ridiculous! Mafia are making a lynch mob for benkraft, the one voice of reason on the forums against the mafia's bs. They're almost sure to succeed. Krue (and perhaps others) seem to have convinced Dalton to push this through, giving them his vote and the last fake ID (#2). That's majority.

Dalton privately told me that he's Ironheart and trying to goad the Mafia into killing him. But they won't kill him because he's gone along with Mafia on nearly everything! The lynch mob has a lot of power, and Dalton trusts krue and perhaps Lydia. The only hints that he's not Mafia on the forum are his voiced suspicions of krue (before diverting to Gurtej) and the vote for Lizrita on day 7.

The key advantage the Mafia have had is the town is not willing to see a medium-size of people acting together and protecting each other as Mafia! To them, the lynch mob appears to be the safe majority. If town had deduced that krue is Mafia, the others members would suddenly look very suspicious.

Daniel on Day 8 at 10:40PM wrote:
Even worse, the mafia strongly suspect Dalton is Ironheart! Because he gave krue the medkit, and this wouldn't make much sense if he wasn't already protected.

Alex on Day 8 at 11PM wrote:
Dalton gave krue the medkit!? I guess she was able to erase his suspicions of her.

Adam says "we can reasonably assume ... we've killed one or two mafia". Of course, Adam! :D

benkraft is on top of things as usual. Looks like while he was convinced to lynch patrick on day 7, he correctly still believes krue and liz to be mafia, and that fake id's 1 and 3 are theirs. But he's dead unless he is politician or can get Dalton on board (well, plus everyone else). Funny how benkraft says Dalton suggested that he (benkraft) be mayor, but now Dalton wants to lynch benkraft, privately saying his petition to be mayor is suspicious! I wonder if Dalton was setting a trap.

Daniel on Day 8 at 11:20 PM wrote:
Yeah...and he's not politician. Politician was killed yesterday. (Josh Hernandez)

Alex on Day 9 at 1AM wrote:
The game is quite obviously a forced mafia win. The mafia even Politician-proofed their votes this round.

Thanks for reading! When I get a chance, I'll also post the story of how I was dead before I was killed.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2011 10:41 pm 
Josh is a pretty great Politician. Mr. Bean for President!


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