Live Action Mafia

Now let's post all the posts here!

First thing is first: wtf "no lynch" vote from Daniel Grazian...?

First, I wanted to lynch Asya, but she convinced me near the end of the day that she was unlikely to be mafia.

My next choice was Miranda, and she claimed Politician. I tried to lead a lynch mob Miranda, but I was concerned that I might get lynched by Shike if everybody else voted for Miranda. I could have vote for somebody else (Justin?) but then if he turned out to be politician I might still be lynched.

Also, I wasn't coordinating with town lynch efforts at the end of the day. I was spending the last half hour plus trying to communicate with investigators, god, asya, and Miranda about other things.

Here are my current beliefs about what is going on / what has happened.

Day 1: jk (hoben) kills dmz. jk is mafia.
Day 2: aok prophet smites jk. Plant Evidence is used to make aok look like a mafia. Aok is lynched.
One of days 3 and 4: an unknown rogue makes a kill.
One of days 3 and 4: an unknown mafia makes a kill.
Day 5: ermain kills Lucy. ermain is a rogue, Lucy is mafia. lucci (lucia) kills 3 people, is prophet smitten. Ermain is lynched.
Day 6: Hitman attempts and fails to kill dgrazian because of a medkit. No kills.

This must be the case, because of the following reasons:
jk and lucia are obviously mafia. Because of dgrazian's count mafia of 3, at most one of Lucy and aok were mafia. Because both shoveled as Mafia and there is only one Plant Evidence, exactly one is mafia. Because of God's pronouncement that 3 days with no mafia kills have occurred, 2 of days 2, 3 and 4 must have had no mafia kills. If aok was mafia, then days 3 and 4 must have both been rogue kills, which implies that ermain was mafia. However, if ermain was mafia, that makes a total of 4 dead mafia as of dgrazian's count (jk, aok, lucci, ermain), which doesn't leave 3 of (mafia + conscript) alive. Thus, the assumption was false, and aok was innocent. Thus, the above holds. In addition, conscription had definitely been used by the time asya was declared innocent, so she is completely trustworthy.

Important assumption:
This all assumes dgrazian is on our side. However, given that he caught lucia, this seems likely. If he is mafia, then the above does not hold, except that asya is obviously still innocent.

Summary:
As long as you trust dgrazian, the following must be true:
Mafia: jk, Lucy, lucci, 3 unknowns (one of whom may or may not be a conscript)
Rogue: ermain, 1 unkown.
Prophet: aok

No matter what:
Conscription happened at latest by dgrazian's count mafia just as day 6 started.
Asya (abergal) has not been conscripted, she is good.

Did we rule out jk being rogue or aok being rogue?

Rogue can't kill the first two days.

Ah, right. Thanks.

I agree with Isaac's reasoning and I came to the same conclusion.

Me too, I'm disappointed he posted it first... I have a nice theorem, proof format argument.

Depending on the rules, it may be consistent that aok was a conscripted prophet-mafia who smited jk on day 2. Why he would do that in private, when he could use "bang" instead, I don't know.

This is only possible if a conscript turns up as 'mafia' rather than their original role when shoveled. I've pm'ed Josh about this.

See this post: viewtopic.php?f=66&t=1028#p10659
Yenlin says Eric Yang tried to kill her, but she resisted with superhero - ironheart.
This was at 12:00, just before the two successful killings today. Can we get some investigators to find out if Eric Yang did those killings?

Hey guys, several of y'all haven't PM'd me your roles. Namely vmayar, Ellena, kemus, Eric Yang, garywang, AdamYedidia, ewaller, Darryl, Steven Valdez, mchang02, and yenlin. You should do that.

Also, if you have an item, PM me. It would be good to know where those are.

I'm inclined to believe yenlin.

I will dispatch investigators for ericyang->Jacobian and ericyang->tjhance. If you are not contacted by me, do not investigate these two kills.

So, before trusting role information to abergal, can someone tell me what's wrong with the following theory:

1) Dgrazian starts game as Mafia and gets elected mayor.
2) Dgrazian uses "Count the Mafia" to convince everyone that conscription has been used.
3) The Mafia hire Bobby to 'kill' dgrazian, in order to destroy the medkit and make dgrazian appear more trustworthy.
4) abergal is proven innocent.
5) Everyone tells abergal their roles.
6) abergal gets conscripted.
7) The mafia start making 3 kill attempts a day.

As a note, I haven't been paying attention 100%, so the issues with the theory are probably pretty obvious.

DGrazian is generally not believed to have started the game as mafia, because he caught another mafia member (either Lucy or lucci, I can't keep them straight) being sketchy. We know that other person is mafia because she went on a desperation kill rampage right afterward.

Schmolly, lilychen, jrowan, tjhance, and Jacobian are all people who have been killed we don't know by whom.

A couple of these are probably rogue kills, but we should still try and find out who committed them anyways.

Tjhance was the prophet who smote Lucia.

Who would have known about that?

isaacg was supposedly the only witness right?

isaacg and me. Possibly others I don't know about.

isaacg was the one witness to the prophet smiting.

But Jacobi was publicly investigator by the end.

By the way, no investigation hae been posted at all for days 5 and 6. Can people who know them post them?

Also, since jacobian's dead, it definitely looks like mafia is hunting down investigators. is tjhance an investigator? did he role reveal to anyone before he died?

He was prophet. Me, dgrazian and abergal knew.

Investigators: please proxy through me so I can post your results, both for previous days and the current one.

Also, calling again for all items. If you do not declare your item to me now and then later claim to have one I will be extremely suspicious.
Also, please reveal your role to me.

Moreover: If you have ever given an item to someone, PM me with the item and who you transferred it to.

IMPORTANT:

One of my investigators has reported that Eric Yang killed Jacobian.

Okay, voting to lynch Eric Yang unless stuff happens.

New report: Eric Yang also killed tjhance.