Don't fault the numbers, because his calculations are correct. It's his opinions about whether the numbers are reasonable for this game that you're arguing with. If certain things do happen in the game, true, there are ways that the mafia-finding mechanisms can be limited, but if the mafia get unlucky, they're completely fucked. There are in fact more ways for mafia to get insta-revealed than for them to counteract that, and that's assuming they play perfectly and know everyone's roles and where all the items are.
I think you're underestimating the difficulty of tracking down items. Once they're handed off, it can be a bitch and a half to figure out who has them so that we can kill (or not, in the case of mics and medkits) the people who have them. Assuming you don't know where the mics or receivers are, you're generally just as likely to hit a mic as to get a receiver off a dead person.
Having all the Fake IDs doesn't decrease the number of people the mafia need to kill by that much, actually. Assuming the mafia have been losing people too, you can only have up to (2x the number of living mafia) votes, since only one Fake ID can be used per person. If the mafia are winning by a large margin, this can speed up the game significantly, but when they aren't winning really hard, it's only the equivalent of like one or two more days of kills (assuming innocents are lynched).
I disagree that Superheros and Desperados aren't threatening. Even if they don't have a 100% chance of being active when you try to kill them, it's not no chance, and people can in fact strategize about when would be a good time to activate their powers, making them potentially more efficient than random chance as to when they're dangerous kills.
Yes, the medkit could start with mafia. So could any item. And you assume a lot when you say good coordination with rogues. Coordination with rogues requires figuring out who they are first without them dying or killing one of your own, which is not as easy as it sounds.
Yes, conscription is a thing. Yes, it can be powerful. I will not refute that.
I realize that we had bad luck this game. I just really don't like games where the game is effectively unwinnable to the point of not being fun, because seriously, what the fuck are we supposed to do when town can brute force the investigation mechanic to find a killer within two days (assuming 1/2 to 3/4 of game has an alibi at the time of the murder, 6 investigations a day means town can investigate more than a quarter of game in two days if they're organized)? How are we supposed to win when every time we try to kill someone whose role we don't know, there's something like a 1 in 4 chance that we're doing something actively detrimental to our team (4.5 Ironhearts + 4 mics + some chance of badness from Desperados or Superheroes + 2 rogues, included rogues since killing them is bad for the mafia, out of I think 35 total starting non-mafia) and we have limited enough Kabooms that even if we hit relevant people with every one we use it isn't enough to get them all?
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