Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 5:28 pm 
Okay then. Maybe I'll just get ahead on next week's p-sets. That's a good thing to do, right? Right?


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 5:47 pm 
Boo. You whore.

(Sorry. I watched Mean Girls recently. ._.)


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:09 pm 
Haha wow another failed politician check?


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:54 pm 
Whelp. Mafia's dead. This game will either end before the weekend is over or drag itself out and die slowly when William Wong inevitably gets revealed as the only non-innocent.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 12:39 am 
Also, nice plan at the end, Krue. If Shike hadn't been active desperado it would have totally been epic. :D

Now we get to sit back and watch to see whether our lone mafia dude can pull it off or get smited by God for not being mafia enough.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 12:51 am 
I would also like to point out that, in this game, no one really wins. Except God. 'Cuz we mortals totally danced for his amusement and stuff. And if we manage to amuse him properly we ascend into heaven and are seated at the right hand of yada yada stuff and things.

Also we should all aspire to role claim aok at least once, because that is clearly the best way to play this game.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 1:44 am 
Actually I have no idea tjhance is prophet. I was trying to kill Megan in 5.111, but couldn't find her. Instead I saw someone that I recognized from the photo posted on the introduction thread, so that happened lol.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 2:24 am 
I think This is a very Town favored game.
Mafia power is not proportional to the number of mafia, since mafia still make only one regular kill per day. On the other hand, investigation power is proportional to number of investigators.
Also, there are just too many ways to survive a regular bang or to identify the mafia who made the kill. There are expected number of 4.5 iron hearts, one medkit, Desperodos going on desperado, and 4 mics; whereas mafia only have 5 kabooms+2poisons, which means killing at most 7 people with defense mechanism. In order for this to work out, either mafia has to identify nearly everyone's role before making the kill, or has to take the chance and hope that iron hearts get lynched by mob. I actually believe that the town would still win if no one reveal their own role to anyone else, but just lynch mafia whenever there is a failed bang. (the game would be very boring though)
There are too many investigators that I decided not to kill anyone at ET. There are at most 7 candidates and town has more than that number of investigation power counting in superheros. I tried to kill people that I barely know so it would not be linked to me, which worked when I killed Jrowan. But finding people on campus is hard, especially when you don't really know them... Anyway, this game is just too hard for mafia to win.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 10:29 am 
Great job on James Rowan though -- literally no one even knew what to do with that death until the thing with yenlin, and even then they were like, "eh. Let's test known mafia for murder cuz no other leads." Like, the only reason they didn't test me was because I was in BMF kitchen in plain sight the entire time, and someone even considered checking Lucy for Rowan's death even though she was already dead at the time. So yeah. Both your kill and Cecilia's Schmolly kill were very good.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 11:05 am 
This game was mafia favoured. Mafia did not use their powers well, and got unlucky with the rogue-killing-mafia. Where was the poison? Why were there not more set a trap kills? Why not use kabooms?


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 11:08 am 
The mafia were also mostly led by first-time players.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 5:05 pm 
Yep. It was us noobs and Krue, who was hosed.

And Hobin. Who was brave enough to make a kill but then got hilariously prophet-smited behind a closed door.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 5:45 pm 
Which led, even more hilariously, to everyone believing that he was mafia and therefore Lucy was innocent. Good times... xD


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 8:15 pm 
Once game is over you guys can hear all about the reasoning behind that weird move. Aok really is Yagami Light.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 8:43 pm 
Actually there wasn't any, it was just me being dumb.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 10:15 pm 
Did game get called? Why is there no lynch yet?


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 06, 2013 2:09 am 
I agree with Jacobian on this one. Mafia has so many powers they could have used, if it weren't for bad luck, things could have gone very differently. Also, Eric, your calculations aren't quite true. 7 defense mechanisms is plenty. Mics/receivers shouldn't be a very big problem; barring rogue-> mafia kills, the mafia having one of the two makes the whole them useless. Mafia can also take receivers off dead people, making it even easier two avoid them. Additionally, the mafia probably gets most of the fake ids by the end, so the game can end with many townies not needing to be killed (mafia basically wins when numMafia +numFakeIDs >= numTown). Desperados and superheroes have ironheart powers active only a small portion of the time, so they really aren't that threatening. Medkits have a chance of being in mafia hands at the beginning, and good coordination with rogues can even mean they don't even save the person. Ironhearts/superheroes (though probably not desperadoes) could be conscripted as well. Mafia in this game had bad luck, but that doesn't mean they don't have a general advantage.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 06, 2013 2:44 pm 
Don't fault the numbers, because his calculations are correct. It's his opinions about whether the numbers are reasonable for this game that you're arguing with. If certain things do happen in the game, true, there are ways that the mafia-finding mechanisms can be limited, but if the mafia get unlucky, they're completely fucked. There are in fact more ways for mafia to get insta-revealed than for them to counteract that, and that's assuming they play perfectly and know everyone's roles and where all the items are.

I think you're underestimating the difficulty of tracking down items. Once they're handed off, it can be a bitch and a half to figure out who has them so that we can kill (or not, in the case of mics and medkits) the people who have them. Assuming you don't know where the mics or receivers are, you're generally just as likely to hit a mic as to get a receiver off a dead person.

Having all the Fake IDs doesn't decrease the number of people the mafia need to kill by that much, actually. Assuming the mafia have been losing people too, you can only have up to (2x the number of living mafia) votes, since only one Fake ID can be used per person. If the mafia are winning by a large margin, this can speed up the game significantly, but when they aren't winning really hard, it's only the equivalent of like one or two more days of kills (assuming innocents are lynched).

I disagree that Superheros and Desperados aren't threatening. Even if they don't have a 100% chance of being active when you try to kill them, it's not no chance, and people can in fact strategize about when would be a good time to activate their powers, making them potentially more efficient than random chance as to when they're dangerous kills.

Yes, the medkit could start with mafia. So could any item. And you assume a lot when you say good coordination with rogues. Coordination with rogues requires figuring out who they are first without them dying or killing one of your own, which is not as easy as it sounds.

Yes, conscription is a thing. Yes, it can be powerful. I will not refute that.

I realize that we had bad luck this game. I just really don't like games where the game is effectively unwinnable to the point of not being fun, because seriously, what the fuck are we supposed to do when town can brute force the investigation mechanic to find a killer within two days (assuming 1/2 to 3/4 of game has an alibi at the time of the murder, 6 investigations a day means town can investigate more than a quarter of game in two days if they're organized)? How are we supposed to win when every time we try to kill someone whose role we don't know, there's something like a 1 in 4 chance that we're doing something actively detrimental to our team (4.5 Ironhearts + 4 mics + some chance of badness from Desperados or Superheroes + 2 rogues, included rogues since killing them is bad for the mafia, out of I think 35 total starting non-mafia) and we have limited enough Kabooms that even if we hit relevant people with every one we use it isn't enough to get them all?


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 06, 2013 5:16 pm 
Sorry, I think I misused the word "calculations" when I really meant that I disagreed with his reasoning. I also misunderstood how fake ids work; I thought that one person could use multiple ones.

However, I still don't think that mafia is at a disadvantage. One thing that can significantly decrease investigation risk is having a mafia pretend to be an investigator. Then you can fake investigate the person who did the killing. Dgrazian actually gave the chance of this not happening a very low probability, just because the fake investigation plan is so good for mafia. There are 5 mafia + 2 rogues + some number of roles that are figured out + 1 conscript + 1 hitman + that can be used to either expose someone with an ironheart/medkit ability, and 5 kabooms + 2 poisons + some number of townspeople that can be left alive at the end + 1 conscript + some number of lynchings that can be used to deal with someone with those abilities. Furthermore, there's the option of saying a "bang" a few minutes before day end and then saying "kaboom" at the strike of 11:00 if the person is ironheart, which could very well not give them time to post. Medkits can be dealt with by a mafia/rogue double strike, and if a desperado takes a mafia out, the mafia doesn't even need to bother using "kaboom" in order for them to die. Mafia seem to be basically be dismissing lynching working in their favor, but if they figure out someone can't be killed with bang, all they need to do is frame that person and get them lynched. Mafia can frame townspeople in tons of ways, not just with the "frame a townsperson" ability, but also through things like pretending they have a receiver/pretending to have a medkit/pretending to be ironheart/somehow implying a person is sketchy.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 06, 2013 5:33 pm 
...in other news, the game goes on!

No seriously. What. If William pulls this through I'm going to have to go all the way to Maseeh to kow-tow him. Though it would be nice if he could post in Mafia Den so we'd know what's going on.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 06, 2013 9:57 pm 
Some things the mafia didn't do but could (should?) have, admittedly of varying degrees of difficulty:

-use Manipulate The Press, like, at all. Probably on the weekend kills where more investigations will be wasted and people have good alibis.

-similarly use Frame a Townsperson. It's not like the town was quiet about investigation targets.

-Destroy the mics. As far as I can tell, there's zero reason for a mic or receiver not to be destroyed the instant the mafia acquire it.

-Use Scheme to salvage a failed bang with an immediate kaboom (needs a buddy admittedly)

-As mentioned, bang close to 11 and kaboom at 11 if failed (though might result in a no-kill day)

-Fake investigate the real killer as clean. If at all possible go through a proxy you can kill if someone catches you in the lie so that it can't be tied back to you.

-Wait to conscript until someone is actually confirmed or if you know they have a confirmable role (IC, politician, superhero)

I do agree ironheart effects seem generally hard to deal with however...


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 06, 2013 10:34 pm 
Well derp. Game's practically over by now.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 12:39 am 
If the mafia have both a mic and receiver pair, they can potentially figure out who the Rogue is in the case of one of them being hit by a misguided Rogue, which is better than nothing.


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