Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: Discussion Day 1
PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2012 1:37 pm 
Pro tip: read the rules, read the rules, read the rules. This is true even if you've played before, because there are some changes.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2012 1:43 pm 
These are some strategy hints that Alex posted in a previous game. They are still very applicable:

- Post on the forum. Face to face conversation is great, but it's good to involve players from all over campus. Forum conversations make it hard for Mafia to tell different people different things or deny they said something.
- Vote every day.
- Know the rules well.
- Explain why you're voting for someone. Voting for someone out of nowhere looks suspicious.
- Be familiar with the rules.
- Post suspicious stuff you see. "I didn't want to look suspicious myself by posting suspicions" is the path to an easy Mafia win.
- Start discussions early. It's bad when everyone's rushing to decide for whom to vote for at 11:50PM.
- If you're a special role and about to be lynched, announce it, leaving enough time for players to change their votes if they are convinced.
- If you're holding an item and likely to be lynched, hand it off to someone you trust. Otherwise, you're risking the item to be redistributed randomly, possible into Mafia hands.

-If you're Investigator, investigate every day. Consider announcing your results using a trusted player as a proxy to relay the results without revealing your role.
-If you're Mad Scientist, collect body parts every day you can. Also, don't tell anyone you're Mad Scientist unless you have a really good reason.
-If you're Politician, there are two ways to go. Either survive until the end to suddenly force through lynching a Mafia in the endgame, or use it early and get people to lynch you on a boring day so that we have a trusted (but powerless) townie.
-If you're Ironheart, bait a Mafia into trying to kill you, then reveal.
-Electing a Mayor is a good idea overall. You can always impeach them towards the end of the game.




... and this was my response to Alex's strategic advice:


0a. If you're reading this, read Alex's post above again! He's giving some really useful advice.

0b. The town (and the mafia) win together and lose together. Even if you die, you win if your team wins. You should always place victory above your own survival. For example, you should almost always prioritize the lives of special roles over your own (if you are a normal townsperson.)

1. If you are Investigator or Mad Scientist, use your role every day!. The investigator should almost always use a proxy in revealing his/her information.

2. Be familiar with rules and mechanics and especially rules pertaining to any special role you may have. There have been minor changes to the rules, some of which were made at packet handout. Read the rules.

3. Keep track of items. Transferring items can be very important, but players should always be accountable for which items they have and who they have given them too. The town might well have won the last game, if they kept better track of who had the Fake ID's.

4. Start discussion early. This should be intuitively clear, since better-informed decision can be made with more time, but the consequences of failing to do this are not so obvious. Consider the following scenario:

At 11:45 p.m., a lynch mob forms to lynch X. X happens to be a special role, say the Ironheart. The only way X has any chance of surviving (and even this probably won't save him) is to scream on the forum that he is Ironheart (and that assumes that he is aware of what is going on.) A revealed Ironheart is obviously much less powerful. However, if the lynch-mob process begins several hours earlier, the Ironheart can be a little more subtle. He could, say, reveal himself to one other player and get that player to lobby in his favor. Hopefully, he can survive without any mafia having learned his identity. (Btw this situation basically occurred in the game last IAP. Ironheart was lynched in a last-minute lynch mob, despite his frantic efforts around 11:57 to persuade the town he was Ironheart.)

5. Be active and involved in the game. This prevents the mafia from controlling the game (see the game from this fall.)



A few new points of my own:

1. The following properties are really good for the medkit to have:
a. being in the hands of a special role (Mad Scientist would be the best of all!)
b. having it's location not known by the Mafia (note the absence of this property at game start. Xavier, this might be a good thing to fix.)

2. Same with the Microphone/receiver pair

3. Talk outside the forum! Get an idea of who you (somewhat) trust. Discuss strategy with other people. In addition to being really important to the town from a strategic perspective, this is the spirit of the game.

4. Don't be too paranoid! The mafia are (almost certainly) going to be killing somebody everyday, so even if you don't die someone else will, perhaps a special role character! (see 0b at the top of this post.) Also, the game's more fun when people aren't excessively paranoid.

4b. The above paragraph becomes less true near the end of the day, if the mafia are running out of time to make a kill and can potentially be denied a kill for the day or forced to take excessive risks.

5. With that said, if you're going to get killed try to do so in a way that brings down a mafia (your life for a mafia's is a sweet victory.) Send private messages to a couple people when you are meeting with somebody. Try to trap possible mafia into killing you when others know you are with that person. Be clever.

6. Keep up with the forum discussion. Be aware of what is going on publicly outside the forum.

7. Use private messages! You may not want to say something publicly, but often it is a good idea to tell one or two people (suspicions you have, where you're going to dinner, etc.)

8. Keep game momentum going. The mafia may well try to kill active players early. If you are a townsperson and there is a void in leadership, take some initiative. Don't leave the mafia to control the game! (See the game from this fall.)

9. Read Alex's post again

10. Please make comments, disagreements, concurrences, etc.
_________________


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2012 1:49 pm 
That advice was copy-pasted from a previous game, so ignore references specific to the game instance.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2012 2:27 pm 
If you have a microphone or receiver, you should ASAP coordinate with its counterpart.


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 Post subject: Additional ideas
PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2012 4:54 pm 
Additional ideas

1. If you have a special role, try announcing via a double-proxy (tell a friend to tell a friend). Then even conscription isn't enough to determine your identity.

2. Everyone should visit murder sites. This makes it harder to determine who is the investigator, etc.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2012 6:09 pm 
I have an idea:
In every microphone/receiver pair, the 2 people should meet privately and flip a coin. If it comes up heads, they should switch who has the microphone and receiver, and if it comes up tails, they should not switch.
There doesn't seem to be a risk of accidentally giving the mafia more items.

Also, I think that maybe activation each 24 hours should be determined with some random chance. That way, the risk of a mafia getting caught by microphones stays approximately constant, which means there's no way for them to reduce it by avoiding directly killing people with microphones.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2012 6:15 pm 
A note on conscription:

It is something to keep in the back of your mind, that a person you thought you could trust might be conscripted.

However, in previous games, people have ALWAYS overestimated the threat that a particular person might be conscripted, rather than underestimated it. A first-order approximation of best play would probably ignore conscription entirely, except to add 1 to the mafia count.

Only 1 person will be conscripted out of the 28 starting townspeople. It is unlikely that it will be a particular person you are concerned about.

Even if conscripting a particular person would be really strong for the mafia, they will probably end up conscripting someone else for one reason or another (i.e. that person saw them commit a murder, that person lives in a particular location, that person is a friend of one of the mafia, etc.)

So whenever you are thinking, "I'm nervous about doing something, because X might be conscripted" check yourself. You are likely overestimating damageIfXIsOrWillBeConscripted * Pr(XIsOrWillBeConscripted.)


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 Post subject: Re: Additional ideas
PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2012 6:23 pm 
kaufmand wrote:
Additional ideas

1. If you have a special role, try announcing via a double-proxy (tell a friend to tell a friend). Then even conscription isn't enough to determine your identity.

2. Everyone should visit murder sites. This makes it harder to determine who is the investigator, etc.


1. Good idea, especially for investigators (since they get information that they need to relay to the town.)
Also, it is often a good idea to tell two people your role, rather than one, and to tell each of them who else you told. That way, if one of them kills you, the other will know to be suspicious of him.
See my notes on the tendency to be overly paranoid about the threat of conscription

2. Very true.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2012 7:52 pm 
Proposal:
All Knights publicly reveal immediately.

To be clear, their dame counterparts do not reveal.

Why:
Having a trusted townsperson is good. They can give keep secrets, transfer items safely, and so on. Yes, there's conscript, but as long as we don't commit hugely to the trusted townie, the benefit is worth it. (See also Daniel Grazian's post on not overstimating conscription).

A revealed Knight is quite trustworthy. Most importantly, there's a Dame who can vouch for him by a proxy chain.

Second, it is risky for Mafia to claim knight, since in a contested claim, an actual knight can be proven true if the Dame is killed (which the Mafia can accidentally do). Unfortunately, we don't know the exact number of knights, so multiple claimants can be real, but neither do Mafia, making it hard for them to false claim given that real claimants can be randomly confirmed. Two real revealing knights would especially be great because Mafia can only conscript one.

Finally, the usual risk of revealing that mafia will just kill the knight is avoided because it's good for town to have a dame investigate the knight's death every day starting an early day. Yes, Mafia can use a power to avoid this, but that's not especially efficient.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2012 8:09 pm 
I emphatically agree with Alex's proposal. All knights should reveal immediately. Now. Before anybody dies.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2012 9:52 pm 
In addition to the knights revealing, all vanilla townspeople should also reveal. There are a small and known number of them (assuming all knights reveal), so this will give us a small set of people that contains a known number of mafia. The mafia cannot set a trap for a vanilla townsperson, so all of them should reveal. Everyone should reveal before anyone dies. Since revealing all of the vanilla townspeople is the same as revealing who has a power role, everyone with a power role should state that they have one, but NOT WHICH ROLE. I have a power role.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2012 10:56 pm 
I am perplexed by all these proposals, but meh, activity is good right? And I guess even if I do die a violent death I'll just binge on sweets and then realize I don't have time to binge on sweets and go study instead. Or something. So I guess I'll just say right now that I am a townie of a most delicious vanilla flavor. Though I wouldn't mind sprinkles with that.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Sep 24, 2012 12:36 am 
I'm not convinced that everyone revealing whether or not they're a power role is a good idea. I think we should have some discussion first.


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