Live Action Mafia

Aok was my deliberate choice. I've been talking to him a lot, and I was getting suspicious vibes from him.

There was not enough time to rationally discuss investigation decisions. Especially not when we were discussing the lynch-mob against shike. The surest way to get two distinct, reasonable investigations was to do what I did.

Also, I don't think that decisions by dictator on issues like investigation targets are particularly bad. The investigator(s) can always ignore the dictator's instructions if they think they should do so. But I agree that a wider discussion would have been preferable in this case. There just wasn't time.

I understand dgrazian's suspicions --- that said, I want a prophet to be used on him soon.

Using a prophet against me would be a good idea I think. But I'd recommend waiting another 5 days or so.

Either way, if you decide to do that, try to surprise me (while still having a good number of witnesses.) That way I'd have a harder time desperado killing.

Again, though, I think it is very unlikely (maybe 15%) that I'll be conscripted at some point in the game.

To everyone complaining the arbitrariness of the investigation, I disagree.

First, committee discussion takes forever and someone needs to decide. And history shows group discussions tends to wind up on a non-Mafia; it takes little pushing for Mafia to make the finger point at anyone but the guilty person. Just having the investigator or someone trusted decide, however arbitrarily, is more effective than everyone weighing in about who makes a good choice.

Thanks Alex.

It's less clear-cut when the person deciding isn't the investigator himself, but I think even that can often be justified. But the investigator can always use his/her own judgment in deciding weather to follow advice.

*whether

I disagree with this post on multiple points. First of all, 5 days is a lot of time. The game hasn't lasted 5 days and we've already found at least 2 mafia, had many important roles revealed (and several of them killed as a result), etc. I think we should consider using the prophet much sooner.

I also find the the fear of desperado killing suspicious. If Daniel were a mafia and thought he were about to be killed by the prophet, desperado killing would reveal his position with certainty (leaving us with use of the prophet) and only helps the mafia by letting them kill without additional mafia being detected for one night. This is a clear victory for town.

I'm less suspicious of this, but I'm curious why Daniel has raised the probability of conscription to 15%. He's been saying the chance was minimal all game; what happened that increased the chance so much? Is it that the town can no longer be expected to believe ~0% chance?

15 % is still unlikely. It's also on the upper end of my estimate. I never suggested that it was ~0%. That would be ridiculous given that there are only 29 starting town people, and clearly I'm a more likely conscription target than average.

Also, when to use the prophet on me, if you choose to do it, is hardly my choice. But I do think 5 days or so is reasonable.

You're right that it's not clear whether desperado killing is a good idea in general if a mafia is about to be propheted. But if nothing else the mafia could kill the prophet.

I agree with David's logic.

The mafia probably will conscript soon, if they have not already. We've already caught two, leaving them (for their sake) dangerously small. DGraz is a pretty likely choice. It's also possible they would pick someone less visible, since Daniel is the first person most of us would suspect, but as I just said Daniel is the first person most of us would suspect.

Use the prophet earlier if you want. After you do so (if I don't die) we'll want to immediately use 'shady contacts' which will likely tell us whether conscription has occurred at that point.

But I really think it's unlikely that the mafia will conscript me in the next couple days, especially with all this talk. More likely (but still a low probability) that I will be conscripted several days from now, when the game is near its end.

They could also wait for us to use the prophet, then conscript.

Yep, that's why I don't want to use the prophet so soon.

I agree on the delay. Really, this is zero sum to the point where the Mafia might even conscript someone else entirely.

Again, I really think you are overestimating (Damage I will do if conscripted) * Pr{I will be conscripted}

Plus, you have to compare that to the damage that would be done by conscripting someone else. Is it really that much less?

I would bet that the mafia have already conscripted. If we can get a prophet to confirm your innocence, and we can get the mayor's confirmation of 3 mafia remaining, then we'll be able to stop worrying about being conscripted in the future.

I disagree. I think it is more likely that the mafia have not yet conscripted.

Actually, I'd probably put it at around 40-60. With two mafia dead, they surely feel a lot of pressure, which might lead them to conscript, especially if they were losing key geographic diversity.

But strategically, I just don't think conscription so early is a good idea. This makes me think it substantially less likely that they would do it.

As in 40% that the mafia have conscripted.

Without quibbling about the exact value of damage*probability of your conscription, I am also concerned by the amount if power you have. The town is doing very well art the moment and stands to lose a lot more if you become a powerful conscripted person than it gains gains from you being a strong leader.

By this logic we need to figure out if Daniel it's conscripted or stop feeding him information (I feel a lit better trusting Gary with role information for example).or both.

I definitely agree with spreading out the role information -- we have more than one townie we can reasonably trust and the mafia can't conscript us all. But I would say hold off on checking Daniel just yet, maybe give it 2-3 days.

But do keep in mind that the mafia can read the forum too and decide what to do based on what we decide to do... so they may well wait until we use the prophet, then conscript. As mentioned earlier.

Err, excuse the pronoun choice, I'm not implying that I'm one of the townies you can trust. You have no reason to believe that if you aren't me.

And don't advertise the exact timing. No need to let the mafia wait it out and then conscript somebody.

Another possibility is for the Mayor to see how many Mafia remain. Again, probably not today, but maybe tomorrow. If we're considering this, people under suspicion of being conscripted shouldn't be mayor when it happens.

Let me summarize the difficulty others have mentioned about checking Daniel (or anyone). It's that as soon as we Prophet-check or Seer-check Daniel and announce the good result publicly, the Mafia can just conscript the now very trustworthy Daniel. And even if they don't, the threat of them doing so will make people likely to say in two days, "Well, we knew he was innocent before, now who knows," invalidating the point of the check.

So, Mafia want to wait to conscript until after we check, unless something better or more pressing comes up. So, we get into a standoff. But it's a standoff that favors town because Mafia waiting to conscript is a much bigger cost than town waiting to Prophet, especially with only two Mafia.

Of course, Mafia can conscript and we won't know, making us needlessly delay the Prophet-check. But, we have a threat of counting Mafia via the Mayor power if we can get someone trustworthy to do it, or threaten Daniel with a recheck. Also, waiting might lead to the Prophet being killed.

I definitely suggest not checking now. Waiting a bit puts the Mafia in hot water. I imagine having two people makes it hard to make kills, and they'll be willing to make a subpar conscription just to get a third person. Don't make anyone really valuable yet. At some point, we should check, and I don't know when, but it's not now.

Now, I still do believe that the threat of conscription is generally over-feared. But an innocent-confirmed Daniel right now would be such a good conscription target that this factor is worth thinking about.

I am essentially innocent-confirmed right now (up to the possibility of conscription.) If I am confirmed innocent by the prophet, I will be known to have been innocent up to that point. But a day later, if the mafia have not yet used their conscript power, I will again by innocent up to the possibility of conscription. The same state as now.