I think people are still overestimating the threat of conscription. Daniel explained this well in his initial strategy advice.
Daniel Grazian wrote:
A note on conscription:
It is something to keep in the back of your mind, that a person you thought you could trust might be conscripted.
However, in previous games, people have ALWAYS overestimated the threat that a particular person might be conscripted, rather than underestimated it. A first-order approximation of best play would probably ignore conscription entirely, except to add 1 to the mafia count.
Only 1 person will be conscripted out of the 28 starting townspeople. It is unlikely that it will be a particular person you are concerned about.
Even if conscripting a particular person would be really strong for the mafia, they will probably end up conscripting someone else for one reason or another (i.e. that person saw them commit a murder, that person lives in a particular location, that person is a friend of one of the mafia, etc.)
So whenever you are thinking, "I'm nervous about doing something, because X might be conscripted" check yourself. You are likely overestimating damageIfXIsOrWillBeConscripted * Pr(XIsOrWillBeConscripted.)
That said, I'd be for impeaching Daniel and electing someone else. Though I think now is too early to do so.
Login
FAQ
Search
