Live Action Mafia

Unfortunately, Shi-Ke, my psychic powers failed me while I writing my 1:11AM post, which I started before Ben posted at 1:08 AM. I'm quite embarassed my post took me at least three minutes to compose. Even more embarrassingly, I lost the keys to my time machine, so I'll have to be content with replying now.

OK, I'm convinced, let's not take any chances and lynch aok full force. After all, he did refuse confirming his politician claim when things were safe.

A fact which aok could have easily remedied by messaging Gary with an explanation at any time during the three hours between Gary's announcement and him leaving for ESP retreat as I suggested. (Thread.) Unfortunately, aok chose to not do so despite posting on the forum then. Why would he not tell the trusted innocent what was going on other than his claims being false?


So could have you. Or aok. Or anyone. Let's lynch people there's good reason to suspect.

I never claimed any special role, proxy, or trust network, nor did I run for any office.

Also, Mafia were down to two people, one if you don't count the probable inactive Hassan, and didn't have much luxury whom or when to conscript.


The point was for Hassan to die. aok was about to be lynched for faking politician/superhero by Daniel's plan. aok needed not just to kill Daniel, but to make sure the plan would not go through. Sacrificing a probably inactive Mafia achieved this. The alternative was aok being lynched.

Also, possibly, Shi-Ke is lying.

I'm for lynching him full force now. Do you care to explain why aok chose Ironheart (twice apparently!) knowing we were going to politician-test him?

Who?

His claim of a sure Mafia win with no math behind it. He said was so sure but didn't prove it at all. It suggests someone told him or handwaved it.

Seeing Hassan running out of the room is not the same as seeing him say bang. If you and Hassan were mafia, you could both have agreed beforehand that Hassan would try to make it look like he failed to kill you.

Well, it looks like lizrita, Nathan, and Cecilia already posted similar replies to benkraft's post to mine while I was composing my huge post. Good for you all! It's nice to confirm our reasoning by multiple people independently coming to the same conclusions.

I case it was lost, I'm now convinced that vote-splitting against aok is too risky and we should just lynch him.

I'm off to sleep so more will have to wait for tomorrow. Why don't we all go get some sleep? Good night!

It sounds like you guys have been discussing these events with each other, so I wouldn't count that as 4 independent conclusions. Maybe 2 at best.

Sleep is a good idea.

Assume a mafia kills an active today.

If someone can come up with a method for the 5 mafia votes and 5 townsperson votes to be distributed in such a way that the town can control both the result of the first person and second person in the set of lynch votes, I would go along with the plan. Alex, what is your brilliant counting method which allows control of both?

If the mafia use all five votes, we know who they are.

Does anyone secretly want to voluntarily pool their votes with the fake IDs? If so, reveal now.

Doesn't matter if we know who they are at that point; with 5 votes on the mafia's side and 4 votes on the town's, they could publicly reveal and face no consequences. I am rather doubtful that an active prophet exists to prevent this.

If they reveal, we know who town is... how many signatures do we need to get Mayor or Policemen? Confirmed-innocent people with the ability to have their vote count three times or to confiscate fake IDs are useful in scenarios like this.
I think it's important to try and get policemen petitions out so we have this fall-back ready, but worst-case-scenario we do a signature scramble after mafia reveal themselves to get one of the innocent people to be a policeman.

Honestly, if people are sketched out by the likelihood of Alex being conscripted because he's "experienced," I'd be fine being policeman. I'm just a bit sketched out by Shi-Ke. As far as I know, I've done nothing to cause people to suspect me of shenanigans, and I don't think I'm regarded as as much of a threat as Alex or Daniel by anyone.

(that being said, I still would support Alex as policeman as well)

Still doesn't work - just count the numbers.

After 2 innocent deaths, the town starts Day 11 with 4 votes, and the mafia have 5. As long as they kill an innocent, even if town gets a mayor up, it's 5 votes vs 5 again.

It's quite possible to rig the votes tonight such that only one mafia has to reveal, with the remaining votes coming from Fake IDs (Town's 5 votes goes to Adam, 1 Mafia and 3 Fake ID votes goes to their choice). After that, he passes off all the IDs to the unrevealed mafia, which prevents police officers from doing anything at all, except on the off chance they guess correctly.

This is all assuming that the mafia aren't able to get their hands on the last Fake ID, which would definitely guarantee victory for them. This is also assuming that they don't use a free kill (I suspect killing spree may not have been used, and they still have another use of set a trap. In the latter case, even if the last Fake ID is used on the town's side and a mayor is set up, town loses.

Also, if someone can check my math at some point, that would be fantastic. Sleep dep does wonders for arithmetic skills.

Why is this even a discussion? Vote splitting is useless at this point.

though if we disagree on who to lynch we'll be vote splitting anyway.

There's no such thing as "lynching full force." If aok decided to be a politician today, the fake id's get their target to be killed when the vote passes. If aok decided to be ironheart or just ran out of superhero days, a townie gets lynched.
This doesn't really seem like the best course of action to take, we simply don't know enough.

If, after sufficient proof that the politician plan results in a 100% win, people still advocate it, that suggests some degree of sketchiness.

We're still assuming that aok is not mafia here. Why has aok only been ironheart since the game started, and why did he refuse a perfectly good politician test when Daniel suggested it and it was safe and reasonable? I believe it's because superhero is a relatively good town power that is easy to fake. Whenever asked to prove himself, the "hero" can just claim a lack of charges, or not respond until the day changes and say it's too late to do anything. If he always chooses to be ironheart, he can tell his mafia buddy to "kill" him whenever he wants.

If town is too scared to lynch anyone because of voting numbers, we'll get nowhere. Honestly, the Fake ID votes all being usable by just two mafia was an unforeseen change that screwed math up for this, but we're going to have to do something despite that.

So I ask you this: if not aok, who?

I would support lizrita as Policeman. Let's try to get one if at all possible so that Mafia cannot win in the utterly endgame scenario of one Mafia holding all Fake ID's.

Let me be clear again that now that Mafia are stirring up noise, we should lynch aok full force and not split votes to politician test. Honestly, his blatant refusal to go through with a test that would fully vindicate him unless he's lying is proof enough to me that he's not Politician.

The math on a split being viable for town is irrelevant now, but let me write it out just to show that shi-ke is full off BS in saying it was a guaranteed Mafia win.

Ten actives alive after Mafia kill agree to split 6 aok/4 dirk stahlecker. Mafia have only 3 Fake ID's (yes, I know this) and can't outvote this without both committing, since tiebreaks go aok>dirk>everyone. We have margin for two presumed aok's not to vote since he's top tiebreak. If Mafia reveal to lynch, then we know all the Mafia. Next lynch they have 5 townies and 2 Mafia. We control a Fake Id and the Mafia have 3, so we outvote them. Alternately, we get a police officer to confiscate Fake ID's. We can also vote for Marschacw for max tiebreak. To win, Mafia would need to doublekill and obtain the Fake ID and not trip on powers we have left and have us not elect a police officer or mayor.

Anthony, I want to address this in particular because I don't believe you're Mafia but risk voting with them.

I see your reservation, but if aok were a Superhero, he is a horrible one for intentionally choosing Ironheart knowing that Daniel had arranged a Politician test that was going to happen that day if not for the Mafia autolynch*. This time, aok knew full well we were going to lynch him; he has no excuse not to have chosen Politician other than being Mafia and having claimed Superhero to gain trust.

His claim of a role then utter refusal to let it be checked give us no reason to put any weight of his claim. If anything, I find it makes him more sketchy.

*And, no, Daniel did not just tell aok of the test that day making aok unable to choose Politician, as aok claims. I doubt anyone who has played with Daniel Grazian would believe he made an uncharacteristic blunder that would make for an utter failure of a Politician test.

I am not Mafia and don't wish to vote with them, so thanks for the concern.


So why did he fake claim to Daniel in the first place, knowing he wouldn't be able to hold up to the test?

Either way, there is suboptimal play going on, and just from an Occam's Razor perspective I think it's more likely that aok made a blunder because he was actually afraid of being killed (and his concern was validated), rather than take the risk of fake claiming to gain trust without planning ahead, especially when mafia was down two members early in the game and could have been much more cautious.

Daniel says aok and kaufmand trusted each other early because they revealed their roles to each other, as well as to Daniel. Presumably, aok said he was Superhero to gain that trust. aok got out a lot of useful information from this trust. He was let in on every secret plan. The fact that Daniel would call for a Politician check was by no means a given.

From what Daniel told me, he called for the Politician check well in advance the previous day. Daniel later committed to it by posted it on the forum. There was no specific reason to think aok was threatened.If aok were really Superhero, it would be utter folly for him not to comply.

Now, him claiming to have chosen Ironheart a second time is even more implausible. Nathan and I even offered to give him a microphone for prtoection.

Vote for aok. This is a crucial day and if people don't vote, Mafia just swing for whomever they feel like with their three Fake ID's.

Given the other thread (and, before that, a discussion with Alex), I retract various things I said. Apparently I need more tinfoil hats.

Things that still need explaining: why was Shi-Ke attacked? (Yes, this could have been Mafia realizing that failed kills don't cost them, but I think that's unlikely and that this makes Shi-Ke sketchy.)

FWIW, I'm a bit sketched by the fact that lizrita asked to be police officer. I might like to see a mayor who's relatively trustworthy, and with other people holding impeachment petitions. People I might like to see are lua and Nathan.

Edit: I should read all threads before responding, or maybe just use that memory thing I appear to have. Obviously lizrita isn't sketchy anymore.

So we're lynching aok?

A-OK.

ps I can help with the tinfoil hat thing.

Everyone lynch aok! We need to make sure he cannot outvote us with Fake ID's.

I do not trust Shi-Ke. He was the strongest defender of aok. He is the person I consider him most likely to be the last Mafia. Him being Mayor is really bad.

How did Shi-Ke get enough signatures? Did he go around to inactives?

A number of us trusted him yesterday. Now, I'm inclined to agree with you.

I saw Hassan walk out of black hole kitchen and into the lounge (looking for Shi Ke). As I return to the lounge, I saw JFrisch run out excitedly and knew that something has happened.
I asked Shi Ke if Hassan tried to kill him, and while we were talking, aok walked in and told us that Hassan killed David and tried to kill him.

==lua

Please, if it all possible, impeach Shi-Ke. It's too late today but we can tomorrow. And get everyone to vote aok since aok + shike Mayor votes is a huge threat.

Please, if it all possible, impeach Shi-Ke. It's too late today but we can tomorrow. And get everyone to vote aok since aok + shike Mayor votes is a huge threat.