Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: Discussion Day 10
PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 11:21 pm 
Discussion topics for the day:

1. What to do with aok.

2. What happened to Jenny not Jennifer's fake ID; 3 are mafia-held, and I'd like to see more proof that it's not Mafia-held.

3. There's still someone who was conscripted hanging around, most likely. My bets are Shi-Ke, aok, and Alex.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 11:27 pm 
I am also sketched out by Shi-Ke and aok, but trust Alex well enough. Might be folly? I don't think it is, though...


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 11:29 pm 
Alex, you are being incredibly sketchy. Three contentions

1. It has been shown that Dalton is a mafia, and he has played with you before. You would thus be a prime early game kill target if you were innocent.

2. Politician plan. At the point where it is clear that the Mafia are scavenging for Fake IDs, if you split the vote so that the politician gets lynched tomorrow, the second place person is going to be Mafia's choice. The fact that you haven't considered this negative consequence which will clearly make Mafia win the game (they will dominate in votes and in kills) is sketchy.

3. Petition for police officer. Given that there are much safer choices than you for people who are much more likely to be innocent, or have evidence in that favor, it is supremely useless and counterproductive to the town for you to even try to be police officer.

That said, I am circulating a number of petitions to become mayor, and for some number of people more trustworthy than Alex to be police officer along with impeachment petitions so that the role of officer can circulate and allow for searching for IDs to be more effective. I will stop by ET tomorrow, probably either between 2 and 5:30 or between 7:30 and 11:00 to gather signatures for this cause.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 11:36 pm 
That said, if you live at random and are still playing and have not yet signed a petition (or 11), then you can find me at Black Hole Kitchen.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 11:45 pm 
Guys why is this even a discussion? We kill aok today, he's probably mafia. Sweet


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 11:45 pm 
He was in on the shi-ke plot. No sane Mafia would have attempted to kill shi-ke if they knew what was up.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 11:49 pm 
I don't think that you're counting properly on the politician thing, Shi-Ke. There are 11 active players, 9 of whom are town, 2 of whom are Mafia members. By lynch time tommorrow, 1 more townie will be dead. The Mafia have 3 fake IDs.

6 people are directed to vote for aok.
4 people are directed to vote for the actual lynch target.

Anyone who doesn't vote for their designated target is immediately under suspicion, and the 3 IDs aren't enough to take second place.

Granted, this could be screwed over if:
1. The Mafia gets ID card #4.
2. The Mafia make more than one kill.
3. Someone doesn't make it to voting in time.

Unless the town gets the last ID card, lifts some IDs off of Mafia members via the CP scheme, or successfully lynches a Mafia member on day 10, this'll probably be the last chance to 'test' aok.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 11:50 pm 
shikexue wrote:
Alex, you are being incredibly sketchy. Three contentions

1. It has been shown that Dalton is a mafia, and he has played with you before. You would thus be a prime early game kill target if you were innocent.
Dalton ran into Daniel first before me. Otherwise I'd probably be dead. Also, Daniel was running for Mayor. I was likewise away for the dead mafia desperation kills.
shikexue wrote:
2. Politician plan. At the point where it is clear that the Mafia are scavenging for Fake IDs, if you split the vote so that the politician gets lynched tomorrow, the second place person is going to be Mafia's choice. The fact that you haven't considered this negative consequence which will clearly make Mafia win the game (they will dominate in votes and in kills) is sketchy.
The politician plan was dgrazian's, not mine. aok has wriggled out of being checked for politician once and is trying to do it again. His politician/superhero claim is a lie. He's being pretty blatant about it.

About numbers, I've done the check and we're ok. I hadn't known about the rules change when I suggested the plan, but we have enough margin anyway. I'd also consider the alternative of just calling BS on aok's Politician claim completely and just all lynching him.

Also, dude, calm down! What's with the "will clearly make Mafia win the game"? Who is telling you this?
shikexue wrote:
3. Petition for police officer. Given that there are much safer choices than you for people who are much more likely to be innocent, or have evidence in that favor, it is supremely useless and counterproductive to the town for you to even try to be police officer.

I chose not to run for Mayor, but for the basically safe pro-town position of Police Officer. I protect people so they don't die. The Search Power can only help get Fake ID's from Mafia, as Mafia can already get them by killing the person.

shikexue wrote:
That said, I am circulating a number of petitions to become mayor, and for some number of people more trustworthy than Alex to be police officer along with impeachment petitions so that the role of officer can circulate and allow for searching for IDs to be more effective. I will stop by ET tomorrow, probably either between 2 and 5:30 or between 7:30 and 11:00 to gather signatures for this cause.
Are you serious? Electing someone Mayor actually does risk an autolose if they are Mafia. Do not elect any Mayor.

Shi-ke, I don't think you're the source of this, and we should know who is.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 11:51 pm 
Well, aok would have had to submit his role choice already, so it's too late to test him without sacrifice now. I'm uncomfortable lynching a claimed Superhero who knew Shi-Ke was Ironheart and would have had no reason to have David dead.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 11:53 pm 
At about 6pm we made it explicitly clear to aok that we would be lynching him today no matter what, and he can "choose" to be politician or not based on this.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 11:57 pm 
By the way, for what it's worth, Gary explicitly said Alex was cool and aok was sketchy

garywang wrote:
I will be dead on Saturday at 11PM. Also, I'm leaving on ESP retreat in a few hours, so I won't be able to access the forums much.

I few notes before I shuffle off this mortal coil:

- I told Liz that I was giving dgrazian the medkit, so she is almost certainly not mafia.
- Nathan and Alex saw me handing dgrazian something, so they are probably not mafia.
- aok and kaufmand are a bit sketchy.
- aok has and is trying to get too much information.
- Liz and Nathan have some information they might share with the town in a few days. That information is correct.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:08 am 
a. Things changed since we promised to lynch aok.

b. Gary didn't know about the kaufmand-aok plots. I think that on explanation, they're reasonable, although he had good reason to be suspicious.

c. Even if Alex were clean when Gary said that, he could easily have been conscripted since then.

d. Mafia have in the past generally conscripted an experienced player. They've probably done so. dgrazian seems quite clean; Dalton was mafia early enough that he probably wasn't conscripted. The next obvious target is Alex.

e. Alex, do you have any story as to why Hassan would have attacked Shi-Ke if aok were mafia (and therefore mafia knew about the Shi-Ke ironheart/investigator plot)? It seems like this one's hard to explain, and cost the Mafia too much (and would have involved thinking too many steps ahead) for it to be easy to explain away. I think it's pretty likely that anyone who was in on that plot is clean.

f. What's the numbers check you've run? How close is it? I don't trust our ability to get *everyone* on board for this, nor do I trust our ability to ensure that no active player makes a mistake, or our ability to distinguish a mistake from scum, or our ability to keep the last fake ID out of Mafia hands. Also, I think it's clear that at this point, if we lynch aok, we're not lynching him as politician, so we're not testing his roleclaim, we're saying he's the most sketchy person around and deserves to be lynched. I think that's clearly not true, for the reasons above, especially e.

g. I think we can safely elect a mayor, we have plenty of ~confirmed townies at this point.

h. What makes you think Shi-Ke isn't the source of this?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:09 am 
On the other hand, Daniel said aok was near the top of his trust list, and he and aok were in on the same plan that has turned out positively (Sibyani was not an accident).

I'm not sure what to believe at this point; there are too many consistent worlds and none very likely. I do know that my view of the facts makes aok and shike look trustworthy, but Mafia is all about incomplete information and it happens too often that any one townie's view of the facts is spectacularly wrong. I could be persuaded by more substantial evidence, but such evidence is probably not going to surface.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:11 am 
In case people missed it, two days ago, Daniel Grazian posted.
Daniel Grazian wrote:
Aok has claimed Politician. Let's lynch him tonight to test this theory.

aok says he chose Ironheart that day and told Daniel not to do it. aok is lying. Daniel is a good player and would not get a superhero lynched in such a stupid way. aok's claim of "I chose to be Ironheart" is completely implausible given that Daniel was doing the plan.

aok knew he would be lynched under Daniel's plan because he is vanilla Mafia. aok escaped by getting Daniel killed, causing enough distraction. Now he's trying to wriggle out a second time. His refusal, twice, to do this check that would vindicate him if he was telling the truth, is nearly a confession that he is not Politician/Superhero.

I'm nearly convinced to abandon the Politician test and lynch aok in full force.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:17 am 
I'm really still not convinced that there's a plausible explanation for Mafia attacking Shi-Ke.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:18 am 
I agree.

If aok were an innocent superhero, why would he choose to be Ironheart when going through with dgrazian's Politician plan, and not tell dgrazian? (aok told me, Liz, and Alex that dgrazian was unaware he was Ironheart)

Is he so sure the mafia are going to attempt to kill him? I mean, the risk of not convincing people and getting lynched for no good reason is way too huge!


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:19 am 
(to clarify I agree with Alex. I am also OK with lynching aok full force)


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:21 am 
Alex wrote:
In case people missed it, two days ago, Daniel Grazian posted.
Daniel Grazian wrote:
Aok has claimed Politician. Let's lynch him tonight to test this theory.

aok says he chose Ironheart that day and told Daniel not to do it. aok is lying. Daniel is a good player and would not get a superhero lynched in such a stupid way. aok's claim of "I chose to be Ironheart" is completely implausible given that Daniel was doing the plan.

aok knew he would be lynched under Daniel's plan because he is vanilla Mafia. aok escaped by getting Daniel killed, causing enough distraction. Now he's trying to wriggle out a second time. His refusal, twice, to do this check that would vindicate him if he was telling the truth, is nearly a confession that he is not Politician/Superhero.

I'm nearly convinced to abandon the Politician test and lynch aok in full force.


Other than completely ignoring Ben Kraft's point #a, you've ignored points b, c, d, e, f, g, and h.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:26 am 
Nathan wrote:
I agree.

If aok were an innocent superhero, why would he choose to be Ironheart when going through with dgrazian's Politician plan, and not tell dgrazian? (aok told me, Liz, and Alex that dgrazian was unaware he was Ironheart)

Is he so sure the mafia are going to attempt to kill him? I mean, the risk of not convincing people and getting lynched for no good reason is way too huge!


The reason is that dgrazian pushed for the Politician plan on the day of lynching, not the day beforehand, thus without consulting aok when he needed to send in the request for a role.[/i]


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:30 am 
==shi-ke

Honestly, I'm inclined to ignore any and all of your logic until we have at least one theory for why shi-ke was attacked that involves the wearing of at most four tinfoil hats. (This was my point e above.)

I'd also like answers to points f and h.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:32 am 
Semi-Plausible reason for Mafia to attack Shi-Ke, knowing full well that he was ironheart: Shi-Ke is in the Mafia, and wanted some degree of 'trustworthiness'.

It's unclear as to what exactly the series of events was that day; It is feasible that the murder of kaufmand occurred first, but there was a witness or some other reason as to why Sibyani would have thought that they were outed as a Mafia*. Sibyani decided to go down swinging, but not before the remaining ironheart and a "half" of a mafia claimed to have been attacked.

*or the possible but even more improbable option, the 3 Mafioso decided that it would be a good idea to sacrifice one of their members for n degrees of trustworthiness.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:33 am 
Nathan wrote:
I agree.

If aok were an innocent superhero, why would he choose to be Ironheart when going through with dgrazian's Politician plan, and not tell dgrazian? (aok told me, Liz, and Alex that dgrazian was unaware he was Ironheart)

Is he so sure the mafia are going to attempt to kill him? I mean, the risk of not convincing people and getting lynched for no good reason is way too huge!


While I do think this was a strange play, I think attacking Shi-Ke would have been an even stranger mafia play.

Consider:
- A mafia is worth more to the mafia than a superhero is to the town.
- If he is to be believed, there was a real chance he would die, especially being a revealed politician, so it would have been an understandable play.
- If he is in fact mafia, then mafia would have had the information that Shi-Ke was Ironheart. Going after Shi-Ke would have been tremendously suboptimal, because if Shi-Ke was Ironheart (which he is), they would lose a mafia (and they did).
- There's a possibility that he's lying about knowing about the plan. If he is, he's a good liar. I and others also knew about the plan beforehand, and Shi-Ke himself appears to trust him. I would put the probability that both aok and Shi-Ke are mafia is very small.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:34 am 
shikexue wrote:
The reason is that dgrazian pushed for the Politician plan on the day of lynching, not the day beforehand, thus without consulting aok when he needed to send in the request for a role.

That seems uncharacteristically short-sighted of dgrazian, and you have no way to prove that your version of the story is true.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:35 am 
Quote:
b. Gary didn't know about the kaufmand-aok plots. I think that on explanation, they're reasonable, although he had good reason to be suspicious.

Gary actually did know about kaufmand-aok plots, and informed me of them via pm when he found out he was dying.

Quote:
e. Alex, do you have any story as to why Hassan would have attacked Shi-Ke if aok were mafia

If Hassan was on a suicide killing spree, he may as well confirm as many claimed ironhearts as possible...

Quote:
On the other hand, Daniel said aok was near the top of his trust list, and he and aok were in on the same plan that has turned out positively (Sibyani was not an accident).


From what I remember, Daniel was lying and pm'd Alex that he didn't actually believe what he was saying on the forums about trusting aok. Alex, can you confirm?

Quote:
The reason is that dgrazian pushed for the Politician plan on the day of lynching, not the day beforehand, thus without consulting aok when he needed to send in the request for a role

Daniel knew that aok was claiming superhero, he definitely confronted aok beforehand.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:37 am 
Also, did anyone actually see the attempt to kill Shi-Ke? If the only witnesses were Shi-Ke and Hassan, why would we believe him?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:40 am 
lizrita wrote:
If Hassan was on a suicide killing spree, he may as well confirm as many claimed ironhearts as possible...


Exactly. Simple explanation of why the mafia attacked Shike: aok is (vanilla) mafia, got himself in this politician tangle, is about to get lynched, has Hassan go out with a bang instead of him, and thus we lynch Hassan instead of him. aok then hopes that town trusts him because of this and forgets that we can do an easy test to see his superhero abilities.

If Hassan is going to die anyway, he may as well try to kill Shike. No cost.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:40 am 
And I can also confirm that dgrazian indeed knew aok was superhero, and did his test properly


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:44 am 
Alex wrote:
Dalton ran into Daniel first before me. Otherwise I'd probably be dead. Also, Daniel was running for Mayor. I was likewise away for the dead mafia desperation kills.

Tenuous argument at best. Dalton would've shared a list of high priority targets with any mafia that were new players, which would be likely to include you. That said, this is not the strongest of my arguments against you, but your response of "I wasn't found first" is fairly uncompelling.

Alex wrote:
The politician plan was dgrazian's, not mine. aok has wriggled out of being checked for politician once and is trying to do it again. His politician/superhero claim is a lie. He's being pretty blatant about it.

About numbers, I've done the check and we're ok. I hadn't known about the rules change when I suggested the plan, but we have enough margin anyway. I'd also consider the alternative of just calling BS on aok's Politician claim completely and just all lynching him.

Also, dude, calm down! What's with the "will clearly make Mafia win the game"? Who is telling you this?

You've coopted dgrazian's reasonable plan (which was pre-fake IDs stacking on people) into an unreasonable one (now that there are fewer people to balance out the vote, and fake IDs are known to stack). It would be much more reasonable to lynch another inactive (or a confirmed mafia) than to try to bandwagon a vote for someone who is likely a power role and possibly innocent.

Alex wrote:
I chose not to run for Mayor, but for the basically safe pro-town position of Police Officer. I protect people so they don't die. The Search Power can only help get Fake ID's from Mafia, as Mafia can already get them by killing the person.


There's an opportunity cost to electing someone sketchy for police officer over someone safe. Don't compare to the status quo, compare to the most reasonable alternative.

Alex wrote:
Are you serious? Electing someone Mayor actually does risk an autolose if they are Mafia. Do not elect any Mayor.

Shi-ke, I don't think you're the source of this, and we should know who is.

The easiest conceivable reason for mafia to reveal that they have so many Fake IDs is to prevent a mayor from being elected. It is not unreasonable for the mafia to believe that they were unlikely to garner sufficient support for a petition to succeed, and to implement a plan which would result in no mayor.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:47 am 
lizrita wrote:
Also, did anyone actually see the attempt to kill Shi-Ke? If the only witnesses were Shi-Ke and Hassan, why would we believe him?


while mchang did not actually see Hassan say bang, she can confirm that she walked into the room right as Hassan ran out (and upstairs towards Pecker?). I'm fairly confident that Hassan tried to kill me first, and then killed kaufmand.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:51 am 
shikexue wrote:
The easiest conceivable reason for mafia to reveal that they have so many Fake IDs is to prevent a mayor from being elected.

Or to fabricate an argument against politician checking.


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