Live Action Mafia

I have various things that I want to comment on at this point:

1. First and foremost, I am more suspicious of mayars than anybody else, and would like to execute her tonight. This is based on a combination of:
a. Jackie emphasizing that she was suspicious of Maya and that we should be especially suspicious of her if Jackie died (she said we should be extra-extra suspicious if it looked like a trappy death which seems quite possible but less likely.)
b. My holistic impression after talking to her for more than an hour today was that she was significantly more suspicious than average.
c. The Josh-innocent investigation on day 1 when paired with Maya (we were likely going to execute Maya at that point, until Jackie stopped us -- but again, see (a)

2. Something I just noticed is that Jackie chatted me before she died, expressing suspicion of Luke for psychological reasons. Mainly a matter of his comparative inactivity and seeming lack of interest in discussing the strategy of his own ruleset. Her own conclusion was "Anyway, moderate bad read, but not enough to go off". Separately, I found Luke mildly to moderately sketchy psyc ologically over the past couple days.

3. I think there is a moderate correlation in the alignments of each of (maya, jason) and (casey, jason). They both were nudging decisively toward the conclusion that jason did not make a kill today. After talking with them, I find jason substantially less suspicious than before, but I think their assumption of non-guilt for today's kills was excessive.

4. Linus showing up as innocent makes me suspicious of Lucy. Don't forget this, especially if she lives for much longer. With that said, I had a moderate innocent psychological read on her.

5. I've had substantial innocent-reads on Ksedlar and Adam.

6. I will likely add more later if I think of it. I'll be busy for the next hour or so.

I'll note that lukesci has a pretty decent alibi for every single kill thus far. That doesn't exonerate him from being mafia, but does make him look good.

Re 1b: afaik, dgrazian doesn't know mayars very well, and hasn't played any (?) mafia games with her before. Dgrazian thought I was mafia my first game based on psychreads when I was town. Also, mayars definitely generically seems sketchy, even when she's not playing mafia. So I don't put much weight in this psychread.

That said, I think the other reasons mentioned are enough to make mayars the best execution target. Mayars, you should defend yourself and probably roleclaim to someone.

Pretty sure Luke could only have made any of the kills if I'm mafia

++ dylan

How do y'all feel about mayars having defended Linus? Do you think that could be evidence in her favor, or no? I could see a reason for a mafia to do that but I think it would be more likely for a town person to do that

In my defence:
1) I had no role information of Jackie's. Jackie knew my role, and wanted to set up a plot with it, hence me not being lynched the first night. I will happily role reveal, and can explain why she suggested the kill might look trappy.
2) That said, the kill didn't look trappy, which is, I think, a point in my favor.
3) If I am bad, am I mafia or PK? I think it is established that I did not personally kill Jackie.
A) If I am mafia, I am sketchy for Jackie dying at the hands of one of my mafia buddies. But then why are all of my alibis so crappy? I would have better alibis for kills I was making or expecting. In particular, I would have either stayed longer at lunch with jamb/ritagram/lukesci or tried to find a player to hang out with in the afternoon, under the assumption that one of those kills was mafia.
B) If I am PK, I am not sketchy for Jackie dying, because I did not personally kill Jackie.
4) A single pair investigation isn't super reliable, especially given that brunnerj isn't super sketchy. If you believe I made that kill, can you make more investigations first, ideally with sketchier people? I didn't make it (and would have a more interesting alibi if I did).
5) From what I've heard from other people I sometimes give off a more-sketchy-than-average-person vibe (both in mafia and irl). I'm sad about dgrazian deciding that I'm suspicious based on conversation with me, because we haven't really conversed before and he has no base point to judge my sketchiness.
6) What happened with Linus? Why was I against lynching Linus as opposed to keeping my head down and going with the flow? I think if I were mafia, that is what I would do, assuming Linus was town. It's possible that Linus was conscripted and so I didn't want him dead, but given the lynch mob, I would simply be sketchier by association and almost certainly fail at swaying the vote, which is not a thing a mafia would do.

It seems to me that Jason Ye is a much better execution than mayars - everything here seems really flimsy at best, and there was an investigation just now slightly implicating jason ye. I'm also wondering why there haven't been a single many investigations today?

Mayars defense sounds pretty solid to me - obviously still some suspicious stuff but I think the resistence to executing Linus would be really weird for a mafia especially since she was defending him before it was clear he was going to be executed. I'm not sure who we should execute, Lucy is somewhat suspect given Linus being town but not enough to be sure.

Oh, there were specific reasons given for the guilty psychread on me, didn't see those first pass around. I claim hosage for inactivity, of course; I have been complaining about hosage a lot in-person, ask anyone. I did do some strategy thinking --- pointing out the roleblocker / witch combo day 1, noting that roleblocker fills a similar role to old stalker --- but I'm not always that good at figuring strategy things out.
(Also, it's not my ruleset, I did a lot for it but others did too...)

@Maya you say in point 3 that "I think it is established that I did not personally kill Jackie". Where has this been established...? Neither of your alibis for today involve interacting with any living players (unless you count just missing me for lunch).

My claims as to what happened:

ALIBI 1
-at 12.29ish I finished the reading I was planning to miss lunch for earlier than expected. dgrazian can confirm that I claimed probably-skipping-lunch this morning.
-I packed up and walked to W20. I was in line at Annas at 12.35 when Nolan was killed. I then went to lobdell and looked for people. Notably, I expected Jason to still be there.
-At 12.40 I was at lobdell, looking for people. There was a very high chance that Jason was still there, because agrebe's message asking if somebody was there was unanswered, so it would be incredibly chancy to send something at 12.40 asking if there were people there unless I were myself there.
-Ditto for sending a message saying I was there with agrebe -- there was a fair chance someone with a faraway or running-late class ending at 12.30 might have shown up later than me.
ALIBI 2
-Eating with Agrebe until somewhere in the range 12.55-58.

I claim that if I wanted to kill Jackie I would have had to leave W20 at around 12.45. Under the assumption that I got there at 12.40, this would be really dumb (especially for the aforementioned I didn't know there wouldn't be players there). So if I killed Jackie I was lying about my first alibi. And hence I killed Nolan. Viable, but I think I'm with ksedlar that Nolan was a parallel killer and Jackie a mafia kill. It would make more sense, and I think it's unlikely that the second PK is one of the few inactive players.

The second sentence simply doesn't follow. It only means you planned ahead.

So my first alibi is something that could have gone way wrong if I wasn't there. It didn't, but it would be a huge risk to take, especially since I was expecting Jason to be there. I definitely wasn't planning to leave at 12.45 before I got to W20 and saw only Agrebe. It is possible that I decided, on the spur of the moment, to run off and kill Jackie because I had a chance. However, I claim that I really wanted my burrito and that I didn't want to eat in my next class because the classroom is really nice and burritos spill. Also, I'm suffering from asthma presently, and doubt that I could have run to E52 regardless (running to 18.905 this morning majorly failed and really really sucked).

I would vote either Jason Ye or Lucy.