Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: Sketchy Sammy
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 6:26 pm 

Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:40 pm
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Sammy is being accused of things and should respond to accusations.


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 Post subject: Re: Sketchy Sammy
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:24 pm 
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Joined: Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:48 pm
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Agreed, if he does not respond soon I would very strongly advocate for lynching him. (I may very strongly advocate for this even after his response, but I would like to see what it is.)


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 Post subject: Re: Sketchy Sammy
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:33 pm 
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Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2015 10:15 am
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(Sammy's at ET playing non-Mafia games. He'll post later. Quote: "I don't mind being lynched, but I do want to explain why it's dumb.")


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 Post subject: Re: Sketchy Sammy
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:39 pm 
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Joined: Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:48 pm
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Based on all the information against Sammy, I highly doubt lynching him is a dumb move.
Here's the information we have so far:

1) three investigations for him killing mayars
2) Julian claimed to have seen Sammy near gurev's kill site around the time of the kill, making it quite possible sammy made that kill.
3) Sammy very likely cursed Jakob yesterday, and then Jakob turns up dead early today, which means the person who killed Jakob likely knew about it in advance. This also implicates Sammy in *that* kill.
4) Sammy was on ksedlar's sketch list, which is probably a very minor update compared to the above three factors, but it's still a factor

It's not possible for Sammy to directly have made all three kills (he couldn't PW-kill today if he cursed yesterday), but the fact that we have pretty strong evidence against him for all of them makes me incredibly suspicious of sammy. (In particular, if one of our pieces of evidence is faulty, there are still two other very strong marks against Sammy.) I'd estimate a roughly 85% chance of him being evil.


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 Post subject: Re: Sketchy Sammy
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:58 pm 
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Joined: Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:59 pm
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Now that sammy's sketchiness for killing mayars got a 16x update (assuming that no investigations were faked), I believe that probably the most likely scenario is that he cursed jakob on day 2 and then killed him and mayars on day 3. This has some slight implication that he might be a SK who was waiting on day 2 because he doesn't want to be sketchy before the double-kill.

Not sure how likely this guess is entirely true though...

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I'm a sketchball!


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 Post subject: Re: Sketchy Sammy
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:29 pm 

Joined: Sun Sep 17, 2017 12:47 pm
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Everyone should vote for sammy and it's pretty obvious


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 Post subject: Re: Sketchy Sammy
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:41 pm 

Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:40 pm
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It's pretty unlikely that more than two investigations were faked, and investigating Sammy specifically was nonrandom, so that Sammy has by the best estimate a lower than 25% chance of being town.


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 Post subject: Re: Sketchy Sammy
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:58 pm 
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Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:16 pm
Posts: 3
Location: EC - Floorpi
Hi everyone! The moment you're waiting for is finally here! Sammy's going to defend himself! I promised to tell you all why "this is really dumb," and here I am.

Hmm where do I start

1) The witch thing is a very bad beef
It looks like jakob told at least 3 people (maxmurin, gurev, mayars), maybe more who aren't claiming (maybe even jamb?!!!), some kind of thing to do if he died today. Any of those people could have guessed with pretty high confidence that this is because he got cursed yesterday, and thus be incentivized to kill him. I think I should be sketchier than the others because of initiating the curse, but not by that much. My priors on maxmurin being bad when he posted his thing were only like ~35%; ~50% after mayars died. Only after gurev died did they jump up to like ~75%. I don't see why I as mafia would kill people I'm in an unfavorable beef with.

Yes, that's still a ~25% that no one jakob told things to was bad. This is because Jakob was becoming a very active townie, possibly the most active townie left in the whole of town, and I'm pretty sure any mafia would've put a pretty high priority on getting rid of him as soon as possible.

2) Jakob is very rash as town
I won't go into historical details, but while I really admire his enthusiasm and dedication when he chooses to be an active townie, Jakob tends to jump to conclusions very quickly and miss a bunch of side cases whose union is pretty critical. I think that Jakob's (alleged by max) 70% (75%?) sketch read on me is pretty serious, and I kind of feel like I understand how that happened, but I don't see why people should trust his reads on me that much - he's never successfully read me as bad in the past [though granted, I've never been bad when he wasn't also somehow bad so shrug].

-------------------

but anyway, mafia will probably plant me with probability 1/2 assuming they have a secret admirer. I still think jamb was most likely bad - Jakob's and (claimed) Max's reasoning there ignores a huge number of plausible cases.

uh to generate a trust list, import random, something something *mumble*

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Finally, as a mostly out-of-game comment, I'd like to encourage everyone to listen / ask for newer players' opinions more. You guys are all playing awesomely so far, keep it up and the game will hopefully be fun for everyone!

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...But then again, I'm... Oops. Math...fia is hard.

:Ṣḅ ̇+·Ạṣ: :SbAs:

P


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