|Live Action Mafia
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|Author:||sammyluo [ Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:59 pm ]|
|Post subject:||Sleepy Sammy|
Worth its own thread!
Hi everyone! The moment you're waiting for is finally here! Sammy's going to defend himself! I promised to tell you all why "this is really dumb," and here I am.
Hmm where do I start
1) The witch thing is a very bad beef
It looks like jakob told at least 3 people (maxmurin, gurev, mayars), maybe more who aren't claiming (maybe even jamb?!!!), some kind of thing to do if he died today. Any of those people could have guessed with pretty high confidence that this is because he got cursed yesterday, and thus be incentivized to kill him. I think I should be sketchier than the others because of initiating the curse, but not by that much. My priors on maxmurin being bad when he posted his thing were only like ~35%; ~50% after mayars died. Only after gurev died did they jump up to like ~75%. I don't see why I as mafia would kill people I'm in an unfavorable beef with.
Yes, that's still a ~25% that no one jakob told things to was bad. This is because Jakob was becoming a very active townie, possibly the most active townie left in the whole of town, and I'm pretty sure any mafia would've put a pretty high priority on getting rid of him as soon as possible.
2) Jakob is very rash as town
I won't go into historical details, but while I really admire his enthusiasm and dedication when he chooses to be an active townie, Jakob tends to jump to conclusions very quickly and miss a bunch of side cases whose union is pretty critical. I think that Jakob's (alleged by max) 70% (75%?) sketch read on me is pretty serious, and I kind of feel like I understand how that happened, but I don't see why people should trust his reads on me that much - he's never successfully read me as bad in the past [though granted, I've never been bad when he wasn't also somehow bad so shrug].
but anyway, mafia will probably plant me with probability 1/2 assuming they have a secret admirer. I still think jamb was most likely bad - Jakob's and (claimed) Max's reasoning there ignores a huge number of plausible cases.
uh to generate a trust list, import random, something something *mumble*
Finally, as a mostly out-of-game comment, I'd like to encourage everyone to listen / ask for newer players' opinions more. You guys are all playing awesomely so far, keep it up and the game will hopefully be fun for everyone!
|Author:||cmcclena [ Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:04 pm ]|
|Post subject:||Re: Sleepy Sammy|
Why a minute before voting deadline? Especially since it seemed like the message had already been composed and was not rushed? *confused*
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