Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: I beef Luke
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 2:32 pm 

Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:40 pm
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- Luke was first to jump on the lynch Josh bandwagon, great strat for mafia once someone is outed
- 1/7 chance of Luke getting mafia count, mafia could just not use counter, and claim to have
- I think this is an attempt to make me lynched tonight, but I am town
- Luke pushed for m2w, which was a bad move
- Has Luke actually done anything that helped town?
- Wanted to have Boof's murderer proxied, which reveals info unnecessarily.
- I was proxied about the boof kill, with claims it was town kill, I passed it on to Luke, who didn't post anything about it (unless I missed this)

I'm not sure why mafia would lie, perhaps to confuse town and as a desperate last ditch attempt? Idk, I'm not that good at this tbh.


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 Post subject: Re: I beef Luke
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 2:35 pm 

Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:40 pm
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Part of what was proxied was boof only dropped crystal ball. Which potentially beefs Luke's count.


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 Post subject: Re: I beef Luke
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 3:38 pm 
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Joined: Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:59 am
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Ok, so boof was pickpocketed a coin and dropped a crystal ball, but wasnt she supposed to have a taser handle too? Or did something happen to that?


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 Post subject: Re: I beef Luke
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:40 pm 
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Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2015 10:15 am
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Quote:
- Luke was first to jump on the lynch Josh bandwagon, great strat for mafia once someone is outed

I think this just shows that I'm an active player paying attention, since anyone wants to be seen as wanting to lynch an active mafia, no matter their orientation.
Quote:
- 1/7 chance of Luke getting mafia count, mafia could just not use counter, and claim to have

Yes, this is a point against me.
Quote:
- I think this is an attempt to make me lynched tonight, but I am town

Obviously no one else knows Mendel is town, so this isn't a meaningful argument to others.
Quote:
- Luke pushed for m2w, which was a bad move

Actually, as is recorded in the spreadsheet, I wanted no-lynch day 1. To quote Mendel, "I'm not sure why mafia would lie, perhaps to confuse town and as a desperate last ditch attempt?". Mendel is clearly the one lying here.
Quote:
- Has Luke actually done anything that helped town?

I think this is basically just Mendel being mean. Good job, you successfully made me feel bad? Asshole. (I've tried not to be too angry in this post.) I think I've done some useful things --- the one that stands out most to me is going to EC to visit the maxmurin kill site, and pointing out that we should have ixa as dictator after Josh admitted to being mafia --- but I'll let others judge how much I've done for town (and how much Mendel's done for town) themselves.
Quote:
- Wanted to have Boof's murderer proxied, which reveals info unnecessarily.

Other people who wanted this, iirc, are dylan and python (maybe achester too). Shrug; townies can disagree about strategy, I guess.
Quote:
- I was proxied about the boof kill, with claims it was town kill, I passed it on to Luke, who didn't post anything about it (unless I missed this)

As is now obvious, I passed this to python, who was asleep for a while. He eventually posted it. I made a mistake about the item dropped, which I corrected when I noticed it. This mistake probably makes me look a bit worse, but Mendel claimed falsely I voted for m2w, which seems like an even bigger mistake.

Despite all this, I think it's still plausible that Mendel's town. However, I would be honestly be happy if he were lynched, so I didn't have to hear his shitty logic and mean-spirited comments.


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 Post subject: Re: I beef Luke
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 5:38 pm 

Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:11 pm
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laberca wrote:
but wasnt she supposed to have a taser handle too?


I got a taser handle from lukesci today. Is that the one?


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 Post subject: Re: I beef Luke
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:30 pm 

Joined: Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:14 am
Posts: 0
++lukesci on everything.


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 Post subject: Re: I beef Luke
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:12 pm 

Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:40 pm
Posts: 0
There are still 6/7 odds of Luke being Mafia, the only issue is that in the universe Luke is town mislynch is really bad, which is a good reason not to lynch Luke today.


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 Post subject: Re: I beef Luke
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:14 pm 

Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:11 pm
Posts: 0
What makes achester and lukesci trusting each other so much? Any reproducible reasoning?


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 Post subject: Re: I beef Luke
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:17 pm 

Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:11 pm
Posts: 0
joachim wrote:
laberca wrote:
but wasnt she supposed to have a taser handle too?


I got a taser handle from lukesci today. Is that the one?


Is there an answer to that, lukesci?


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 Post subject: Re: I beef Luke
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:19 pm 

Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 4:34 pm
Posts: 0
Chiller wrote:
There are still 6/7 odds of Luke being Mafia


What? The only reason I can imagine you would say this is because Luke claimed to submit the mafia counter and get the result back. Assuming mafia!Luke would do this with probability 1, that's a 7:1 update towards Luke being mafia. The only reason this results in a probability of 6/7 is if your prior was pretty close to 1:1 odds (specifically 6:7, or 6/13). The prior is probably closer to 1:4, which would give 7:4, or a probability of 7/11, much less than 6/7.

Also, mafia!Luke doesn't do this with probability 1. If he has a mafia buddy who signed the counter, he might have them claim. Or he might actually submit it and let it be random to avoid being outed by pickpockets.


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 Post subject: Re: I beef Luke
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:23 pm 

Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:40 pm
Posts: 0
dylanhen wrote:
Chiller wrote:
There are still 6/7 odds of Luke being Mafia


What? The only reason I can imagine you would say this is because Luke claimed to submit the mafia counter and get the result back. Assuming mafia!Luke would do this with probability 1, that's a 7:1 update towards Luke being mafia. The only reason this results in a probability of 6/7 is if your prior was pretty close to 1:1 odds (specifically 6:7, or 6/13). The prior is probably closer to 1:4, which would give 7:4, or a probability of 7/11, much less than 6/7.

Also, mafia!Luke doesn't do this with probability 1. If he has a mafia buddy who signed the counter, he might have them claim. Or he might actually submit it and let it be random to avoid being outed by pickpockets.


All true I just mean that the counter thing increases chances of bad Luke significantly, despite it being good to not lynch Luke, and the actual probability only needs to be calculated later


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 Post subject: Re: I beef Luke
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:24 pm 
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Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2015 10:15 am
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Joachim: The taser handle I had, I got from python, who had it from tazing achester a few days ago. As was posted on forums, Mendel told me that boof dropped a tazer handle later, claiming gods hadn't informed boof's killer of it at the time.


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 Post subject: Re: I beef Luke
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:25 pm 
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Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2015 10:15 am
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About achester, I freely admit that my trust in him is mostly psychreads, and I should probably be less trusting of him.


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