Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: Day 2 Start
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:05 pm 
Nobody was lynched. Votes (this includes only players who submitted a vote and were not Silenced):

sammyluo no lynch
Ksedlar No lynch
Brunnerj No lynch
jasonye No Lynch
Dylanhen No Lynch
m2w no lynch
Lucy No Lynch
Julian no lynch
ritagram no lynch


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Start
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:10 pm 
Wait, there’s a difference between people who didn’t submit a vote (and thus voted for themselves) and people whose vote is invisible because they were silenced. When GMs don’t post people who self-vote by default, it’s just a convenience thing, and they imply or say “everyone else self-voted.”

Can you clarify if anyone’s vote is actually invisible.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Start
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:14 pm 
++


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Start
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:20 pm 
yeah, there are like 5 people not on this list...

EDIT: one of them is rusch, who does not appear to be silenced...


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Start
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:25 pm 
Ok there has been a rules clarification on this point.

- At the beginning of every day, everyone automatically votes for themselves.
- Players may submit a blank vote. This counts as a vote for yourself, but is not displayed on the execution thread. Thus, the votes of Silenced players are indistinguishable from players who submit blank votes.

On Day 1, all players not listed voted for themselves (there were no Silenced players). Note that 11pm is a hard cutoff for submitting votes. Votes submitted at any time between 11pm and 11:30pm are illegal and will not be counted.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Start
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:30 pm 
Day 2 has officially started. All game actions are now legal.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Start
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:47 pm 
So, as I posted in the silence chat, reasons for a no-kill day could include:
-mafia hit their SK,
-mafia hit a desperado,
-mafia's kill plans fell through,
-plus something I'll refrain from mentioning until after day end,
plus Katie's suggestion of mafia having been roleblocked. The "thing I didn't mention" was that having a no kill day runs down planeswalkers and activated desperadoes. This is especially likely since Katie suggested that planeswalkers pick priest day 1. (I think this slightly ups my suspicion of Katie as someone who would intentionally no-kill to have this happen after suggesting planeswalkers pick priest? Only slightly though. I think it's most likely it was accidental slash they hit an sk)


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Start
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:51 pm 
Katie said the same strategy for planeswalkers to choose priest last game when she was town, so I don't think that's much of a flag for me


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Start
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:14 am 
Sammy, what do you think would be better advice to give planeswalkers? I don't think "charge day 1" is correct, because that in expectation decreases the amount of useful things a planeswalker can do before they die. Perhaps a mixed strategy would be better, but in a game this size (with about 1.1 expected planeswalker), I don't think that matters (plus I expect many people either didn't see my post before day 1, or just went with their own ideas).

I admit it would have been useful to mention that desperadoes activating for days 1 and 2 might run into this issue. But I can't remember to cover everything. *shrug* It's not like I'm the sole person responsible for giving strategy advice; the thread was, as named, meant to cause discussion of people's opinions.

I will also argue that if I were mafia, I would *not* intentionally try for a no-kill day. As I've said, making kills over IAP is harder, and removing leeway is risky, especially when waiting a day replaces a weekday (generally better for making kills) with a weekend day (generally worse for making kills). Plus, waiting a day means that town can be more coordinated beforehand (e.g. items transferred, hymnal rituals performed, etc). Also, from an OOG perspective: being mafia stresses me out, and I want to minimize the game-time I spend as mafia; no-kill days are less fun for game, and I care enough about the game meta to not do annoying things unless it's clearly better. BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY, it's really really bad if mafia/SK miscoordinate and have a 1-kill day (particularly if the 1 kill was by the serial killer; SK not killing just makes it very unlikely they'll live to make a second kill, but that's already unlikely). It would be particularly bad if I were mafia / SK and SK / mafia made a kill while I was at Squares; then I can't make a decent kill after that, and even if I'm mafia and my fellow mafia isn't at Squares, they'd be making a kill when 5-6 people could solidly alibi each other, which is not good.

Going off of this, here are my assessments of people's mafia / SK likelihood, as a result of day 1, conditioned on mafia/SK NOT having hit the other:
Dylanhen - Less likely. Dylan had a good excuse to be on campus day 1, which he won't have day 2. I also think Dylan would try hard to make sure a kill was made.
Sammy - Less likely. Although Sammy is often reluctant to make kills himself, I think he would not want to essentially cause a delay to the start of game, because he is leaving on Thursday.
Me - Less likely. See argument above.
Lucy - Slightly less likely. I think Lucy is likely to try to make kills happen. She did text the chat saying she was going to kill someone at Squares, but this seems roughly 50x more likely to be a joke than a mistext.
m2w - Slightly less likely. I think m2w is likely to try to make kills happen.
Julian - Very slightly less likely. I think he would try hard to make kills happen, but idk.
Pravinas - - Very slightly less likely. I think she would try hard to make kills happen, but idk, she has been somewhat less active than I would expect.
Rusch - Neutral. I vaguely feel like he's likely to push for kills, but I have no data on him being mafia / SK.
Margarita - Neutral. Margarita is an experienced player, but I have no data on her being mafia / SK, I think? And I feel like Margarita isn't a fan of making kills.
brunnerj - Neutral. I think brunnerj is likely to try to make kills happen, but he didn't have many good opportunities on day 1, and he may have expected to have an opportunity before Squares, which I ruined by also going to Squares early.
Chiller - Slightly more likely. Less experienced of a mafia than average.
Natalyat - Slightly more likely. Less experienced of a mafia than average.
Guilld - Slightly more likely. New player.
Jason - More likely, because he was roleblocked. (I had pointed out to Sammy day 1 that Jason was sketchier for not having any good opportunity to kill yesterday, but this sketchiness is a subset of the sketchiness of having been roleblocked.)

I think that if mafia or SK hit the other, it's very reasonable for the other to not make a kill. If mafia hit the SK, then waiting until day 2 for kills to happen basically gains a kill for mafia. If SK hit mafia, then waiting until day 2 somewhat improves the chances of SK living to use their kill day 4. Conditioned on mafia/SK having hit the other:
dylanhen - sketchier; good kill target, good opportunity to make kills
Lucy - sketchier; good kill target, fairly likely to make kills
Julian - sketchier; good kill target, fairly likely to make kills
Sammy - slightly sketchier; what mafia wouldn't want to kill Sammy day 1?
m2w - slightly sketchier; good kill target, idk how kill opportunities go (it really depends on the UROP)
me - neutral; what mafia wouldn't want to kill me day 1? On the other hand, mildly annoying to kill.
chiller - neutral; good kill target, but less experienced making kills
ritagram - very slightly less sketchy; mildly annoying to kill
Rusch - very slightly less sketchy; mildly annoying to kill
pravinas - very slightly less sketchy; mildly annoying to kill
natalyat - slightly less sketchy; mildly annoying to kill, less experienced making kills.
Guilld - moderately less sketchy; no one likes killing new players on day 1, not experienced at making kills.
Josh - moderately less sketchy; mildly annoying to kill, few opportunities to make kills
Jason - moderately less sketchy; very little opportunity to kill him, no ability to make kills

(Oops, I just realized I flipped the order of these lists between cases.)

I think that the first list has a greater impact than the second list, because in the second list, the sketchiness update only applies if they were the target or the killer; there is one mafia who is neither. Whereas in the first list, my comments apply to both mafia and the SK. I think "kill plans fell through" is a priori more likely than "mafia or SK hit the other," but the latter better explains why there are 0 kills rather than 1. So, I think my overall sketchiness ordering after day 1 is:
Jason - slightly sketchy
chiller - very slightly sketchy
Julian - very slightly sketchy
Lucy - neutral
Natalyat - neutral
Dylanhen - neutral
Sammyluo - neutral
m2w - neutral
ritagram - neutral
rusch - neutral
Guilld - very slightly unsketchy
pravinas - very slightly unsketchy
me - very slightly unsketchy
brunnerj - very slightly unsketchy

Note that the combined sketchiness calculation is very weak in magnitude! This is because the first and second cases have their sketchiness inversely related, for the most part. If we see evidence that one case is true over the other (e.g. the presence or absence of an SK kill), then we should use that case. However, note that the presence of a SK kill could be faked by mafia using scheme. Mafia just prefer to scheme near the end of the game, rather than near the beginning.


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