Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:19 am 
Copy-pasting this from day 2, because IMO it needs its own thread. I would appreciate it if people don't nitpick over things that make me find them slightly sketchy; this doesn't need to be a wankfest, especially for opinions that are low-magnitude. Feel free to complain about opinions with a greater magnitude, or if you think there are significant factors I'm forgetting that effect sketchiness on day 1.

ksedlar wrote:
I will also argue that if I were mafia, I would *not* intentionally try for a no-kill day. As I've said, making kills over IAP is harder, and removing leeway is risky, especially when waiting a day replaces a weekday (generally better for making kills) with a weekend day (generally worse for making kills). Plus, waiting a day means that town can be more coordinated beforehand (e.g. items transferred, hymnal rituals performed, etc). Also, from an OOG perspective: being mafia stresses me out, and I want to minimize the game-time I spend as mafia; no-kill days are less fun for game, and I care enough about the game meta to not do annoying things unless it's clearly better. BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY, it's really really bad if mafia/SK miscoordinate and have a 1-kill day (particularly if the 1 kill was by the serial killer; SK not killing just makes it very unlikely they'll live to make a second kill, but that's already unlikely). It would be particularly bad if I were mafia / SK and SK / mafia made a kill while I was at Squares; then I can't make a decent kill after that, and even if I'm mafia and my fellow mafia isn't at Squares, they'd be making a kill when 5-6 people could solidly alibi each other, which is not good.

Going off of this, here are my assessments of people's mafia / SK likelihood, as a result of day 1, conditioned on mafia/SK NOT having hit the other:
Dylanhen - Less likely. Dylan had a good excuse to be on campus day 1, which he won't have day 2. I also think Dylan would try hard to make sure a kill was made.
Sammy - Less likely. Although Sammy is often reluctant to make kills himself, I think he would not want to essentially cause a delay to the start of game, because he is leaving on Thursday.
Me - Less likely. See argument above.
Lucy - Slightly less likely. I think Lucy is likely to try to make kills happen. She did text the chat saying she was going to kill someone at Squares, but this seems roughly 50x more likely to be a joke than a mistext.
m2w - Slightly less likely. I think m2w is likely to try to make kills happen.
Julian - Very slightly less likely. I think he would try hard to make kills happen, but idk.
Pravinas - - Very slightly less likely. I think she would try hard to make kills happen, but idk, she has been somewhat less active than I would expect.
Rusch - Neutral. I vaguely feel like he's likely to push for kills, but I have no data on him being mafia / SK.
Margarita - Neutral. Margarita is an experienced player, but I have no data on her being mafia / SK, I think? And I feel like Margarita isn't a fan of making kills.
brunnerj - Neutral. I think brunnerj is likely to try to make kills happen, but he didn't have many good opportunities on day 1, and he may have expected to have an opportunity before Squares, which I ruined by also going to Squares early.
Chiller - Slightly more likely. Less experienced of a mafia than average.
Natalyat - Slightly more likely. Less experienced of a mafia than average.
Guilld - Slightly more likely. New player.
Jason - More likely, because he was roleblocked. (I had pointed out to Sammy day 1 that Jason was sketchier for not having any good opportunity to kill yesterday, but this sketchiness is a subset of the sketchiness of having been roleblocked.)

I think that if mafia or SK hit the other, it's very reasonable for the other to not make a kill. If mafia hit the SK, then waiting until day 2 for kills to happen basically gains a kill for mafia. If SK hit mafia, then waiting until day 2 somewhat improves the chances of SK living to use their kill day 4. Conditioned on mafia/SK having hit the other:
dylanhen - sketchier; good kill target, unusually good opportunity to make kills
Lucy - sketchier; good kill target, fairly likely to make kills
Julian - sketchier; good kill target, fairly likely to make kills
Sammy - slightly sketchier; what mafia wouldn't want to kill Sammy day 1?
m2w - slightly sketchier; good kill target, idk how kill opportunities go (it really depends on the UROP)
me - neutral; what mafia wouldn't want to kill me day 1? On the other hand, mildly annoying to kill.
chiller - neutral; good kill target, but less experienced making kills
ritagram - very slightly less sketchy; mildly annoying to kill
Rusch - very slightly less sketchy; mildly annoying to kill
pravinas - very slightly less sketchy; mildly annoying to kill
natalyat - slightly less sketchy; mildly annoying to kill, less experienced making kills.
Guilld - moderately less sketchy; no one likes killing new players on day 1, not experienced at making kills.
Josh - moderately less sketchy; mildly annoying to kill, few opportunities to make kills
Jason - moderately less sketchy; very little opportunity to kill him, no ability to make kills

(Oops, I just realized I flipped the order of these lists between cases.)

I think that the first list has a greater impact than the second list, because in the second list, the sketchiness update only applies if they were the target or the killer; there is one mafia who is neither. Whereas in the first list, my comments apply to both mafia and the SK. I think "kill plans fell through" is a priori more likely than "mafia or SK hit the other," but the latter better explains why there are 0 kills rather than 1. So, I think my overall sketchiness ordering after day 1 is:
Jason - slightly sketchy
chiller - very slightly sketchy
Julian - very slightly sketchy
Lucy - neutral
Natalyat - neutral
Dylanhen - neutral
Sammyluo - neutral
m2w - neutral
ritagram - neutral
rusch - neutral
Guilld - very slightly unsketchy
pravinas - very slightly unsketchy
me - very slightly unsketchy
brunnerj - very slightly unsketchy

Note that the combined sketchiness calculation is very weak in magnitude! This is because the first and second cases have their sketchiness inversely related, for the most part. If we see evidence that one case is true over the other (e.g. the presence or absence of an SK kill), then we should use that case. However, note that the presence of a SK kill could be faked by mafia using scheme. Mafia just prefer to scheme near the end of the game, rather than near the beginning.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:57 am 
Josh brings up a really good point; mafia punting game start a day produces another day's worth of splitter investigations, because splitters have this awkward delay thing. So, conditioned on a town splitter existing and having submitted a set day 0, that makes it definitely less likely that the no-kill day was intentional.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 12:09 pm 
I gotta say, I really really appreciate this kind of analysis. The going through player-by-player and discussing why each person may or may not be mafia due to more than mechanical reasons.

That being said, I really do want a kill to happen so that game can actually start rolling. Most of the reason I haven't really been active yet is because there hasn't been anything mechanical to do in game. tbh I'm surprised not more people are kinda inactive. Not much has happened to activate over.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:05 am 
Ksedlar's thoughts on sketchiness:
With it looking more like the SK hit the mafia day 1, this means the 2nd sketch list (from earlier) is looking more accurate than the first.

New thoughts I have, independent of that:
- I think Jason seems significantly more innocent for a non-psychread reason that I'm not going to clarify now.
- EC people look pretty sketchy for the kill on Sammy,even if they don't show up guilty. An EC mafia would be a great help for helping a non-EC mafia sneak in to make the kill. Or an EC mafia could have made a lazy kill and manipulated it. I think if there wasn't an EC mafia involved in this kill, Lucy is most likely to have done it. I don't think chiller would have made this kill without an EC mafia to let him in and help coordinate.
- I trust Julian more now, due to Sammy's psych read.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:22 am 
Err, for the thing about Jason, this 100% doesn't make Jason look less like a serial killer. There's also 1 out of 3 cases where Jason is mafia and where my reasoning doesn't apply. But in 2 of 3 cases, Jason being mafia looks kind of weird. Also, there is a certain type of information which could cause all of this reasoning to be thrown out altogether.

Jason can explain this if I die.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:02 pm 
Very much less confident about the Jason thing.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:05 pm 
Oh yes, two kills today means that it no longer looks like SK hit a mafia day 1 (unless they used scheme today to make us think that).


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:16 pm 
Mafia also still could have hit the serial killer day 1.

Also, I would note that serial killer killing day 3 is kinda weird, since it means they’re pretty much guaranteed to only have one kill for all of game.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:24 pm 
I got moderately sketchy psych reads on brunnerj after we found out pravi was dead. He could just be sleep-deprived though.


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