Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: planning spirit searches
PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:13 pm 

Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:28 pm
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Hello everyone,

People will die in this game. Let's use spirit searches! It might be easier to get more people for the spirit search if we plan it in advance. If a death happens beforehand, how about we do a spirit search somewhere on campus tomorrow at like 6:30 pm? Otherwise, what about 6:30 on Thursday?

A spirit search is an in person meetup where we use up a spirit search item on a death and someone learns whether or not the killer was in the spirit search.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:28 pm 
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Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2015 1:21 pm
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Location: ET
I agree we should spirit search, especially the first death on the first day. Note that one mafia make a few kills, they will have taken enough items from town to destroy any spirit searches we try to do by doing 2 searches first by themselves, thus causing us to get random results.
However, on the first day, there is no way for mafia to spirit search ahead of town unless they get a spirit search from the player they killed or use their starting items. If they use their starting items we can find out by demanding everyone to prove they still have their starting items, so the first day's kill is safe from mafia blocking spirit searches.

I'll try to round up people tomorrow after we see who dies. It is important to do it before the second death, since the logic about it being safe from mafia blocking relies on mafia not having obtained many items from killing people.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:07 pm 
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I am free anytime after 12:30 tomorrow, though preferably before 17:00.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:10 pm 
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I prefer after 7 pm.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:18 pm 

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I prefer planning this after a death actually occurs for location and practicality??


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:32 am 
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I'm free 4:30 - 7 today

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:14 pm 

Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 11:50 pm
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Location: Epsilon Theta
I think planning this in advance, at least tentatively, is a good idea. We can always change our plans to keep the mafia guessing. Also, I'd like to talk with as many people as possible about the game.

To propose something definitive:

Let's meet outside 2-190 at 6:45.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:10 pm 

Joined: Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:43 am
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hm i much prefer meeting post-9:30 or else i can't be there cuz choir and i have to eat


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:39 pm 
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we could meet at 10 in lobby 7?

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:41 pm 
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I actually probably won’t be available after 17:00.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 4:54 pm 

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So is this happening today? Can more people post in this thread


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 5:14 pm 

Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2012 10:54 am
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Location: Cambridge, MA
I don't see the point of setting a meeting time to do a spirit search before the kill has even happened. The mafia would obviously just wait until after that time to make the kill.

People in favor of this, am I missing something?

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 5:15 pm 

Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:19 pm
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Location: floorpi
today is really difficult for me — i’m free tomorrow after 15:00 though (and before 23:00)


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 5:22 pm 
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Well, if mafia kill later in the day, then everyone has better alibis. If they wait until tomorrow, then they increment their bloodlust, and splitter investigations will exist. So if mafia didn't kill during classes as a result of this thread, I think that's a success.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 5:27 pm 
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We don't really lose anything by talking about availability for Spirit Searches, as we're obviously not going to meet if no kills have happened, and can reschedule dynamically.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 5:39 pm 

Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 11:50 pm
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Location: Epsilon Theta
I'm heading over to 2-190. Happy to talk with people there. Then I'm going to Minions at ET.

I'm with Lily now.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:19 pm 
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Next House spirit search? A substantial number of players live there and they are also top suspects.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:31 pm 

Joined: Tue Sep 25, 2018 8:06 am
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I’m down! What time?


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:33 pm 
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Definitely! Gather as many Next House people as you can. Depending on the results of the Minions game at ET, some of us might go over too. Maybe 10:30 if you want to wait for us, but getting more Next House people there is higher priority.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:35 pm 
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I think it would fine if we just included Next House players as those are the most suspicious and we would learn a lot if the search turned out negative. If we're going to do this, other Next House players should speak up quickly about when they want it, since the day ends soon. I should be available anytime.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:38 pm 
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agu1, it's probably worth it for you to physically go and locate the other Next House players. Mafia won't be very likely to volunteer if they'll show up positive, but it will be sketchy if they don't go when you physically ask them. If you get a high enough number of them, just do the spirit search then.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:42 pm 

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Everyone OK with doing this at 10:15? I will gather grace, kelly, swapnil, agu, and myself.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:43 pm 
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ET people and I will head over in a few minutes. We can hopefully be there by 10:15.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:44 pm 

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Also, in the spirit of Game 1, I volunteer to use my spirit search.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:46 pm 
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Julia (jwlw2022) and I will be there too!

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:47 pm 

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@ET people, it may be bad if you come since you all alibi each other? Our goal is 50% chance of kill, not 50% people.

This was pointed out by agu1.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:54 pm 
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Lily and I don’t. Also, given that Next House people are sketchier than normal, we want to improve the chance of a non-sketchy person getting the result.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:08 pm 

Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2012 10:54 am
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Location: Cambridge, MA
ksedlar wrote:
Also, given that Next House people are sketchier than normal, we want to improve the chance of a non-sketchy person getting the result.

++

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:10 pm 

Joined: Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:14 am
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That's incorrect in two ways:

-The goal isn't 50% chance of containing a killer because that's not actionable intelligence: we roughly want one or two of the sketchiest people in the set to maximize the chance that we get _this_ lynch right (or maybe one of the next two), not the number of possible universes we eliminate, since by tomorrow we'll have more information anyway. For instance, suppose we think person A had an 28% chance of making the kill, person B had a 22% chance, and another 10 people had 5% each. If we search just A and lynch the sketchiest person left, our chance of lynching the killer today is 50% (28% chance that A made the kill and we find out so; 72% chance that A didn't make the kill times 22/72 chance that B did given the result that A didn't). If we do the maximum-information search (A and B vs the rest), our chance of lynching correctly today is only 33% (50% chance that the search returns "yes" times 28/50 chance, conditioned on that, that A made the kill; 50% chance that the search returns "no" times 1/10 chance that we guess the right person from the remainder).

-Adding people who are more likely to be innocent is strictly good, since it reduces the chance that the result goes to a mafia. (I'm not sure adding people who are well-alibied actually reduces the chance that the result goes to a mafia, since the mafia'd've known to plan ahead of time to have good alibis.)


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:14 pm 
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ET people are outside Next now.

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