Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:08 am 
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There are two serial killer splitters. Excitingly, both of them have devised strategies for pointing themselves out to the mafia using their set. lilychen in particular stands out enough in her otherwise-alphabetized sets that I think the mafia should make her the day 1 kill (losing their first day kill due to meeting up with a SK is almost costless because there are no previous-day kills for town to go off of during the effective no-kill day). Hopefully the fact that SKs are more findable will help mitigate the low density of mafia in this game, plus the fact that one is out of town and another is very hosed. Unfortunately, mafia don't seem to have noticed anything interesting about any of their splitter sets, so maybe I'm just dreaming here.

The third serial killer, Julia, is a planeswalker and her first kill day is 3; she seems to be thinking about doing a double kill then, which would be really exciting! Meanwhile mafia have a lot of investigation clearing power - swapnilg could make three kills and not show up guilty for any of them if the other two use their powers on him - which is probably bad balance but could still make game interesting if used well.

Town also seems like it'll be much more active/exciting this game, so I'm looking forward to seeing it play out!

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:21 pm 
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rip swapnil


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:43 pm 
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I think swapnilg didn't realize that he got a counter? (I did PM him about getting this item though.) So it's essentially dead obvious that swapnilg is mafia (and not SK since he doesn't have the coin). Anyway, a sad beginning for mafia.

Tomorrow will definitely be more interesting.

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:34 pm 
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People noticed the correlation between vikt's death and 3.091 and listed a few players that are taking 3.091, but forgot that Sir Nicoeus's body double also has 3.091 in schedule as well :p

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:40 pm 
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lol I probably should've mentioned before I died that I took the 8.01 exam - Raul was taking it too

edit: having a body double is so helpful wow

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:38 pm 

Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2012 10:54 am
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Location: Cambridge, MA
Man, I thought I had made a pretty good kill. Town just has too much brute force investigative power.

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:40 pm 
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To be fair, you did go to the spirit search.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:42 pm 

Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2012 10:54 am
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Location: Cambridge, MA
It would be so sketchy to refuse...

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:43 pm 

Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2012 10:54 am
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I did not realize there would be enough splitter investigations to basically brute force the spirit search result. Even if I hadn't gone they would have just brute Force the other half of game.

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 10:19 am 
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Before I died, I called out Sir Nico's body double as a suspect for vikt's kill. :D I hope my message is not lost on town...


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Sat Oct 27, 2018 11:55 am 
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It's amazing how big of a difference there is between this game and last game. Despite the fact that the last game had 6/33 players being mafia-aligned while this game has 6/27 players being mafia-aligned, town is strongly winning this game while mafia was strongly winning last game. Aside from some minor role changes and the addition of child (which doesn't seem to have done anything particularly helpful this game), little changed in the rules. What caused this huge shift?

Biggest factor IMO: player activity level. Town has done 5 spirit searches this game, as opposed to the 1 from last game, and the first spirit search was huge. More importantly, there have been a lot fewer highly inactive people (1 this game vs 3-4 last game). Highly inactive people are actively negative for town, because mafia can fake inactivity, so they still need to be investigated, and they count towards quorum for lots of things. I think they also drive general activity down, because people feel like e.g. "it's so hard to get half of game for a spirit search." We've also managed to pressure people into going to spirit searches for their own kills, which I feel would have been harder last game.

Weird significant factor: I think huge decrease in items has been *good* for town. It meant that mafia provably couldn't get that many spirit searches, and so even though town also had a lot fewer items, they could better trust the results for the items they did have. Also, fewer items means easier item tracking, and more difficulty for mafia to use their starting items for nefarious purposes and then swap items among each other.

Mafia vs SKs: I had expected that having a 3rd SK instead of a 4th mafia would be roughly negligible, because the extra kills would balance out the loss in coordination. But I think the loss in coordination/planning has a bigger effect than I expected (or maybe it's just that Dgrazian isn't mafia?) Sir Nicoeus not physically being around also causes a big hit for mafia. Mafia had 3 uses of "make someone look innocent" and they haven't used any so far (they're usually better to use early). And now that town is starting to run out of spirit searches, they'll be less useful (plus swapnilg died without being able to use his). Additionally, no mafia-aligned person has released relevant fake investigations.

I definitely don't think that the setup was town biased. Relevantly, if mafia made all their kills yesterday (regular mafia kill, chiller's kill, and jwlw2020's planeswalker kill) it would be 3/16 players remaining being mafia aligned. I've seen a 3/16 game with IMO stronger roles for town be a mafia steamroll, so that's a surprising fraction to be at, given that town has lynched correctly 3/3 times.

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 9:36 pm 
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Hmm, I wonder why lindrew didn’t go to the spirit search today? It would have cleared him. I guess if he thought he was framed, maybe he wanted to see if there was a positive without him?

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 9:40 pm 
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Also, it strikes me that town is really low on investigation power. As of tomorrow, town will be entirely secret admirers, children, vigilantes, and one inactive planeswalker. :/

Though, both kills today were intra-living group kills, with only one living townie also in that living group. And in both cases, the townie is a vigilante, who can kill if they get in a beef. Hopefully someone notices the small pool of likely culprits for both deaths.

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:00 pm 
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I was going to say, “town should verify lindrew’s splitter sets, because mafia would be unlikely to give so many investigations to town,” but multiple SK splitters have been giving investigations to town.

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:08 pm 
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rip lindrew. i guess welcome to the graveyard. if only you had gone to the spirit search :( oh well. things aren't looking too good. i hear a bit about the game since i hang out with farel22 and dledesma all the time. farel22 is much more into the game than dledesma...

if the mafia is successful tomorrow, i can finally talk with dledesma bout this stuff tho, which will be good. on that note, farel22 has complete faith in sir nico, from what i can tell, but as far as i know, still didn't reveal his role (from when i was there while they were talking yesterday).


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:12 pm 

Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2018 6:53 pm
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Hi everyone. I'm definitely not mad about this lynch but am very upset that people aren't listening?

Swapnil told me to get food with him and this wasn't really something I could change at the time. Also I was told by farel to not go because it would clear me.

We also have a problem called "Sualeh knows who killed aolsen0 because their roommate told them." This was a really hard thing to work around for me.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:15 pm 
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Oh wow yikes, seems the game is broken. Farel22 told me that sualeh refused to sign the counter, as the counter gave too much power? I heard this second-hand, so it might not be true.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:20 pm 
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lindrew wrote:
Hi everyone. I'm definitely not mad about this lynch but am very upset that people aren't listening?

Swapnil told me to get food with him and this wasn't really something I could change at the time. Also I was told by farel to not go because it would clear me.

We also have a problem called "Sualeh knows who killed aolsen0 because their roommate told them." This was a really hard thing to work around for me.


I'm confused? Why would you not go to a spirit search to clear yourself? Also what is sualeh doing?

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:24 pm 

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Sualeh either doesn't like the fact that the game is breaking due to an NP intervention or legitimately thinks it's a bad strategy for some reason.

Also Swapnil had invited me earlier to a dinner, and I didn't want to cancel on him. As a separate issue, I was almost 100% sure I was framed for aolsen's death, especially compounded with the fact that someone not from next killed aolsen (according to sualeh). So I thought if I showed up it would just confirm even more that "it was me" - i.e. I was checked four times against other people and it came up as me EACH time. farel22 also told me not to show up because a positive result would clear me. I think he was very sure it was someone from next.

What is that luck.>?


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:27 pm 
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For reference, the probability isn't THAT low (1/16 from your perspective, but 1/8 just for 4 investigations to implicate the same person 4 times). This kind of scenario happens almost every game.

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:34 pm 
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farel22 (to dledesma): "i'm pretty sure it's him. I think sir nico is playing some next level mind game. I don't know how to explain thought. I'll tell you when i come back to earth"

dledesma: "are you back to earth?"

farel22: "no..." [pause] "ok, so we know, lindrew died here. i talked to him... [blah more talking]"

dledesma: "well it wasn't sir nico"

(trying to keep up on this conversation, right in front of me. hard to type)

in summary: farel22 has had a breakthrough. i think it might be because sir nico heavily pushed lindrew's guilt? I didn't go to the spirit search though, so I don't know. They are looking at me weird because I'm typing fast.

farel22: "there's nothing sus about him [sir nico] except his incessant need to lynch lindrew"

it looks like farel22 might make a town square post O.O

farel22: "everything he has wanted me to do, he has wanted me to do it. he was proxying stuff through me. but it wasn't anything dangerous."


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:36 pm 
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farel22 is super suspicious of m2w as well..... is he figuring it out?


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:04 pm 

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I was looking at the graveyard in my room today and sualeh glanced over. There was nothing revealing on the screen, but I told him to avert his eyes nonetheless. He said "Don't worry, I know who killed you."

He was right of course, and a few hours later he admitted that he regrets telling Nico that he knows and thinks he's gonna die.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:00 pm 
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I think Mollie is acting pretty defensive and emphatic in calling for investigations on her kill. That was a very sad coinflip for her, but right now she's acting a lot like a mafia who manipulated their kill result.

Also, RIP mafia misinterpreting splitter sets. Chiller did an awesome job and nailed his sets so that mafia would give only him an investigation, and they are going to pick the other set :( :( :(

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 8:20 pm 
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Does Dgrazian know that there is a large town spreadsheet? He keeps asking for information easily findable on it. Maybe it's because he's on mobile?

Dgrazian, if you're reading this, you should get the google drive app for your phone. :P

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 8:27 pm 
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Also, I'm surprised at the lack of discussion about kclisp's death. There are exactly two players living in Random Hall, and one of them is distinctly more willing to go elsewhere to make kills than the other (provable from last game). I totally thought this would be obviously attributable to chiller, but no one has even brought up the possibility. Not even in the thread that hypothesized he killed vikt on day 2 (exactly 3 days before the kclisp kill).

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 8:29 pm 
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Okay, actually looking at the spreadsheet history, maybe Dgrazian just doesn't know it exists? RIP if so. I should have requested that gods sticky it.

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:27 pm 

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Uuuhhh, shouldn't farel22 be disqualified? Have NPs ever snitched on mafia before and what happened then?


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:31 pm 
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NPs can say whatever they want as long as they haven't gotten spoiling info from dead players. In this case, Nico asked the NP for help finding his target and apparently didn't make sure they wouldn't tattle on him. It's very sad but not illegal. It has happened multiple times in previous games.

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:32 pm 

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@jwlw2022 NO.

This is completely fine. Although NPs should generally consciously try to be on mafia's side, there is no obligation for them to do so. What snitching is there? This is an information game. In this case, aolsen and sualeh's roommate was told directly by an NP to message Nico if either of them came back, and that roommate snitched. Sualeh thought it would be bad to mention this, so he tried to keep silent.

You think people should be disqualified? I could have EASILY avoided getting lynched. Sualeh KNEW Nico killed Anders, and he told me that the killer was not from Next (didn't mention Nico by name but it was 70+% obvious to me). It was VERY easy for me to use this information whenever I wanted to. I chose not to reveal this information even when it was clear I'd be lynched (and Sualeh is trying not to as well, in the spirit of the game) and it's entirely possible right now both of us will die solely because of this stupid NP bs.

Just because they're on your side doesn't mean you can try to twist the rules now lmao.

/endrant I'm extremely annoyed by this last comment please forgive any anger


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