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| Thoughts on game http://mafia.mit.edu/viewtopic.php?f=453&t=6999 |
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| Author: | ksedlar [ Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Thoughts on game |
So assuming that people have their shit together enough to lynch m2w today, there will be 4 town (Span, Sualeh, Lily, Nico) and 1 mafia (Dgrazian) alive at the start of tomorrow. Dgrazian could either kill and lynch, then kill and hope that the tiebreak works in his favor (very questionable if he wants to escape the day 3 lynch), or he could no kill, get a townie lynched, and then kill, lynch kill. I think the latter is better, because a no-kill day on day 3 would implicate Sualeh, who was the top of my suspect list, and who hasn't been saying much (making him the most likely candidate for a no-kill day). Then, if he can successfully kill Nico in a way that would implicate Span, I bet he could convince Lily to vote for Span rather than him. I think it would be harder to convince someone to suspect Lily or Nico given how good they look right now, and it would be hard to kill Lily without looking like the biggest suspect, so this is Dgrazian's best line of action. Of course this fails if Lily can make an investigation, but Dgrazian can prevent this scenario by avoiding splitter sets with her and roleblocking her on day 4. This also fails if Span admires Nico for day 4 and is able to kill Dgrazian. But if that doesn't happen and Dgrazian can pull off the Nico kill / maintain good psych reads, I think this should just win the game for him. |
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