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| Thoughts about Swapnil's Death http://mafia.mit.edu/viewtopic.php?f=469&t=35782 |
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| Author: | Sir Nicoeus [ Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
Something has been bugging me since I read that swapnil was killed and I haven't been able to put my finger on it until now. He was on my noted list of people who didn't vote for someone (or rather cjq) last night. So why was he targeted? If he was gonna be inactive, that's a net negative for town and bonus for mafia. Mafia are better killing active people and then they can try to turn daily lynch votes towards inactives like swapnil seemed like he was gonna be. It just makes no sense to kill a potential asset like that? I can only assume that I don't have the complete picture. This leads to three options or possibilities: 1) Swapnil had some useful role like pair investigator and mafia found out. Maybe someone knows if this is true? Also who would he have potentially told? 2) Mafia are super busy and it was a kill of convenience today because there we no easier kills? (This feels like a stretch though. I haven't really examined schedules in detail but I imagine lots of people are targetable in and between classes as swapnil was - assuming that he was killed in his scheduled class in 34 based on his intro) 3) The mafia was more confident killing swapnil for some reason (like maybe they would recognise his face easier). This also feels like a stretch but could indicate a new player, or more likely a west campus player (nextie?) Or 4) Maybe I'm just overthinking things. But until we get investigations (bump on that btw - especially splitters), we don't really have much to go on. |
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| Author: | Sir Nicoeus [ Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
I might have jumped the gun on this since ksedlar just died... but I think people with investigations should wait until we get more alibis and then concentrate on the kill that had less people able to do it. Don't wait too late though, only till maybe 8. Considering we have one splitter investigation for swapnil's death already though, I would probably encourage continuing to investigate that if people are undecided. |
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| Author: | agu1 [ Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
Ok, I suppose I will reveal now. Swapnil and I were gay knight partners. The set {aok, dgrazian, karengao, Idontknow, Linus, pravinas, rbs, Sir Nicoeus, span, tckmn, yyao1} is guilty. I want some investigations on Nico and/or karengao. |
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| Author: | iamm2w [ Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
Any reasons for Nico and Karen specifically? They don't seem super likely to have made the kill to me |
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| Author: | Sir Nicoeus [ Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
Sweet. As a gay knight, this rules out option 1 of my possibilities though (I think?). Idk actually, killing a known gay knight could be good for mafia on one hand, but the other it now seems less likely that the mafia knew swapnil's role because I can imagine this wasn't revealed. I encourage investigations on this set too unless we discover that less people were alibi-less for ksedlar's death. |
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| Author: | agu1 [ Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
I picked Nico and Karen because they seem to have weaker alibis placing them relatively close to building 34 at the time of death. tckmn was found innocent by yyao1 already, and it seems less likely for people to skip work to make a kill. Idontknow (Wayne) also has a fairly weak alibi, so that's also worth investigating. |
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| Author: | Sir Nicoeus [ Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
Are there any alibis with no (even NP) support though? I think if someone completely fabricates something, they might as well make it far from the killsite? But yeah anyone is the set should be investigated. Karen and I included. The more information we have the better. |
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| Author: | rbs [ Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
Those who didn't vote yesterday did not really give a reason why, which is suspicious or maybe disinterest or inactivity? It was a really obvious vote though. From my understanding the kill took place at about the same time in the same area of building 34? Maybe as jamb and brunnerj were both killed there yesterday, Mafia thought it was a good place to hit again so soon. I am guessing it was a serial killer that got ksedlar or a mafia vigilante? Or a town vigilante. Alibis seen pretty easy to make up, especially if they involve sleep. |
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| Author: | megaol [ Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
I agree that it is very likely there was one sk and one mafia kill today. would guess katie's kill is mafia since it seems more difficult to coordinate, but eh idk. |
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| Author: | agu1 [ Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
I shoveled Idontknow and was told that he was an SK priest. Assuming no manipulation by a roleblocker, he could not have killed swapnilg. It's a bit confusing though; why would he make such an obvious kill? |
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| Author: | megaol [ Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
Potential reasons for obvious kill: 1) He knew he was getting execution mobbed (nico + span were pushing the mob ~a few minutes before he died). Being SK rather than mafia with buddies makes it less likely he was leaked this info; maybe mafia got contact to him through cj? Plausible i guess. 2) The kill actually doesn't seem that sloppy if he genuinely (as yyao said) believed that freezing through closed doors works. He lives at next, so making a kill at EC is a pretty reasonable thing to do. Being a new player, he might not realize that 10:55 is a bad time to make a kill because everyone has alibis. |
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| Author: | agu1 [ Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
Yeah, I guess these are good points. This leaves the question of who killed Swapnil open though. |
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| Author: | Sir Nicoeus [ Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
I think we should use our investigative power to continue hitting this death since its the one we have most info on thanks to agu's gay knight list. I'm gonna use my splitter on span vs linus. |
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| Author: | Sir Nicoeus [ Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
{Linus, span} |-> swapnil returns span. |
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| Author: | Sir Nicoeus [ Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
Hence, there are only 4 people not cleared for swapnil's death I think: {linus, dgrazian, pravinas, rbs} |
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| Author: | Sir Nicoeus [ Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
Dgrazian and pravnias seem less likely to have done of the kill because work seem like a valid alibi. Not to say its impossible but definitely less likely. Hence I think someone should check linus vs rbs. Linus already has two investigations against him. |
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| Author: | span [ Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
Dandy Lion has made the following investigations: {Linus, rbs} on swapnilg's death returns Linus more innocent {rbs,pravinas} on swapnilg's death returns rbs more innocent |
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| Author: | span [ Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
If I'm not mistaken, {pravinas, dgrazian} are the only people currently not cleared by a pair investigation. Possible explanations: 1. pravinas or dgrazian did it. Both have work, but I think both could possibly have taken a break for this. In particular, I think Pravi's current work situation is very flexible but I'm not sure. Pravi, could you please elaborate? 2. One or more of the investigations were faked. 3. Agu1 is lying about their investigation. (in which case they're either mafia and dying, or (unlikely) lying that they are the gay knight, in which case we'd know soon) Are there any other explanations? imo the {pravi,dgrazian} investigation is high value, and so is a follow-up investigation between the guiltier person from that investigation and perhaps a random person from the agu1 set. This second investigation would provide valuable information to distinguish whether we are in case 1 or 2. |
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| Author: | Sir Nicoeus [ Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
Alternatively, this kill could've been guilt manipulated. We know idontknow was a priest. What if he inadvertently cleared a mafia (or even worse got in contact with the mafia through CJ and this was planned) :/ If this is true then we would've just wasted investigation power which is extremely frustrating. |
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| Author: | Sir Nicoeus [ Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
Following that idea actually. Did idontknow ever tell anyone his role, proxy out sets? Was anyone holding him accountable, we can maybe check the possibility of a priest clearing someone based on if he leaked any information. |
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| Author: | span [ Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
I'm in a rush so I can't verify, but I don't believe it could have been a priest clearing the mafia. If it was, then agu1's set would not have returned guilty. |
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| Author: | agu1 [ Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
span wrote: Dandy Lion has made the following investigations: {Linus, rbs} on swapnilg's death returns Linus more innocent {rbs,pravinas} on swapnilg's death returns rbs more innocent How did Dandy Lion make four investigations on swapnilg's death? This seems to be against the rules. |
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| Author: | span [ Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
Dandy Lion says there was a player/GM error allowing them to make these investigations on swapnilg's death. |
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| Author: | iamm2w [ Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
You still did not reveal Dandy Lion. Given that they cleared idontknow, I think Dandy Lion is sketchy enough that this should occur. |
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| Author: | span [ Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
If there are still investigations, perhaps someone else should spot-check idontknow, e.g. {pravi,idontknow} |
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| Author: | agu1 [ Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
Thoughts on who I should use my infalliable investigation on? I'm thinking one of {aok, dgrazian, pravi, karengao, Idontknow, Linus}. |
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| Author: | Sir Nicoeus [ Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
Probably dgrazian? He hasn't been cleared yet and is probably someone we should check for. |
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| Author: | agu1 [ Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
Also, assuming all of the following:
Mafia used their scheme kill on day 1 Neither swapnil nor ksedlar were killed by town |
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| Author: | Daniel Grazian [ Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
We should not let Dandy Lion off regarding this right now. In a game last year I was mafia and claimed not to have received a splitter investigation when in fact I had one. I had brain-farted and forgot that the splitter mechanically knew that I had a splitter investigation. I was busted. In response, I claimed GM error -- that the GMs had forgotten to message me saying that I had a splitter investigation. I consulted with the GMs in advance, and they confirmed that they would neither confirm nor deny that a GM error had occurred (in other words they would not confirm that I was lying). I got away with this. This sounds like an attempt to pull the exact same trick (claim GM error to cover up a lie.) This could have actually been GM error. But the claim is completely non-falsifiable, and I think there is a very good chance that they are mafia. Relatedly, Span is proxying for Dandy Lion. Span also has two investigations against him for meghal's death today. I think it is very likely that Span == Dandy Lion == Mafia. |
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| Author: | span [ Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Thoughts about Swapnil's Death |
Hi folks, sorry about the late info, I've been LAMing in another way today (complex email thread oof) Since it's looking like I may get lynched, here's some info. I'm in fact dandy lion, I rolled a 1/4 prob check to not proxy out my info. I didn't realize one couldn't investigate one death more than twice and the GMs didn't catch me. Currently I think pravi, dgrazian, and m2w are the most sketchy. Pravi and dgrazian sknce they haven't been checked, and m2w since they were unhappy with me not revealing dandy lion's identity yesterday despite having no clear advantage for town that I could see. |
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